KentVillan Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Few questions for people who‘ve been following more closely… How many elite/professional Russian troops were in Lyman vs local separatists, conscripts, etc? When can Ukraine start to take strategic advantage of controlling Lyman? How long before the weather slows everything down? Are Ukraine looking likely to make breakthroughs anywhere else before winter? Can Ukraine take any major cities in the recently annexed territories before winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 42 minutes ago, KentVillan said: Few questions for people who‘ve been following more closely… How many elite/professional Russian troops were in Lyman vs local separatists, conscripts, etc? When can Ukraine start to take strategic advantage of controlling Lyman? How long before the weather slows everything down? Are Ukraine looking likely to make breakthroughs anywhere else before winter? Can Ukraine take any major cities in the recently annexed territories before winter? Claims that up to 5k troops were based in Lyman but more accurate estimates appear to be around 1500 and probably mostly separatists. Many fleeing we're ambushed trying to escape via Lyman Forest, and the eastern road out to Kreminna and have been ambushed. There are videos now circulating of the destruction of anything Russian. They've been absolutely hammered. Lyman is already strategically controlled now surrounded or under fire control from Ukrainian forces. Reports seem to indicate there is no escape now viable so anyone in the pocket is already isolated. I believe from what I have read that the ground starts to bog up now before the winter starts setting in around early November. I have no clue though how true this is, but I would think that once the fields get bogged down only the roads can be used for vehicles. This month appears to be a biggy as far as advancing for Ukraine. I think extending the line to Svatove, Northeast of Lyman and trying to take Lysychansk (as on high ground) would give Ukraine advantages over Russian troops defending Seiverndonetsk and further soften the Russian defences on the eastern front. That's where I'd want to go next. I think there is also an argument though that Ukraine also now need to start thinking about reinforcing their own defensive positions especially over ground being retaken. That itself can take months considering the ground they've reclaimed the last 3 weeks. I'm no expert and just trying to keep up with what's happening and anticipating what may happen. I haven't a clue though really, it's all guesswork. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, avfc1982am said: Lyman is already strategically controlled now surrounded or under fire control from Ukrainian forces. Reports seem to indicate there is no escape now viable so anyone in the pocket is already isolated. Sorry what I meant was - my understanding is that Lyman has some strategic value due to a railway line and its strategic position for launching other attacks. So was just wondering if controlling Lyman allowed Ukraine to exploit that immediately or if they needed to press further first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, KentVillan said: Sorry what I meant was - my understanding is that Lyman has some strategic value due to a railway line and its strategic position for launching other attacks. So was just wondering if controlling Lyman allowed Ukraine to exploit that immediately or if they needed to press further first? I'm not sure Kent. It was a supply hub due to the railway station, so your right, but the route looks more north to south so how much use it is to Ukrainians at the moment. I'm sure there will be other routes. As far as Ukraine being able to exploit from Lyman, they already have and are currently attacking Kreminna which is 30km East of Lyman and virtually North of Seiverdonetsk. This is how they've managed to ambush retreating Russians. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelVilla Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 If this is the case, and there was small arms fire in the outskirts last night then we might be looking at a real collapse of Russian lines in the East. Not forgetting that Lysychansk and Sieverndonetsk were left as piles of rubble initially by Ukrainian forces. Russia is now literally defending rubble they created which won't be comfortable in the slightest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted October 1, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 hours ago, KentVillan said: Sorry what I meant was - my understanding is that Lyman has some strategic value due to a railway line and its strategic position for launching other attacks. So was just wondering if controlling Lyman allowed Ukraine to exploit that immediately or if they needed to press further first? Actually just looking at Lyman on Google maps it is just 1 massive railway yard surrounded by houses. Probably similar to Crewe, you can see how it would be very strategically important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted October 1, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 1, 2022 57 minutes ago, NoelVilla said: That's not an explosion, that's just a match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post BleedClaretAndBlue Posted October 1, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted October 1, 2022 The trolling of Ukraine is next level 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post BleedClaretAndBlue Posted October 1, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted October 1, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post avfc1982am Posted October 1, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted October 1, 2022 (edited) Apparently, this is a transcript from a Ukrainian Volunteer group attacking between Lyman and Kreminna... Gives you an idea of the carnage. “its a slaughter” – Ukraine Volunteer Transcripts (wordpress.com) "Only a few mins here. Ran out of ammo and backed off south. Am a bit traumatized and need some sleep. I have no idea what is going on except we engaged a lot of elements headed to Kreminna. They have to be coming from Lyman and Zarichne. Right now we are in a safe area, it seems. I have never seen so many dead, soon to be dead, and wounded people in my life. People begging for help, but no way we can help them. We have little to help them with, a small medical kit each, no morphine, and no time to render any kind of useful aid. No idea if they will live or die. You just keep moving. One guy had obviously stepped on a mine by the side of the road. One leg was gone at mid-thigh, the other one was broken lower down and his foot was backward. He was trying to crawl somewhere on one good knee, trailing flowing blood out of a busted artery. Unless he got help quick, he was gone. He was talking calmly in Russian, saying over-and-over, “I will be home soon mother.”....... The transcript continues but language is a little colourful so you can read if interested. Edited October 1, 2022 by avfc1982am 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 From what I gather there were far more professional Russian soldiers in Lyman than what Ukraine expected, including a btg of Chechens. Good riddance. Slava! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, magnkarl said: more professional Russian soldiers in Lyman than what Ukraine expected Surrounded, it doesn't matter if they are all Ivan Drago, they gonna get minced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 1, 2022 Moderator Share Posted October 1, 2022 3 hours ago, NoelVilla said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 It’ll be interesting to see a western main battle tank against Russian tin cans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted October 1, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 minute ago, magnkarl said: It’ll be interesting to see a western main battle tank against Russian tin cans. What tanks are they getting? Not German I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, sidcow said: What tanks are they getting? Not German I assume. Likely Leopards and Abrahams. Not agreed yet afaik but Ukraine have been trained on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Lots of gains being reported over the last few weeks but how much land are they really gaining? Russia had about 20% of Ukraine a few weeks ago. What sort of number is that now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 23 minutes ago, Genie said: Lots of gains being reported over the last few weeks but how much land are they really gaining? Russia had about 20% of Ukraine a few weeks ago. What sort of number is that now? 18.35695633822% Don't ask me how I got that figure it's classified. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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