Popular Post Dodgyknees Posted July 20, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted July 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, mjmooney said: Two GEs ago, my constituency was a Tory safe seat, nearest rivals were the LibDems, with Labour nowhere. Last GE, Tories held, but only by the narrowest of margins, a couple of hundred ahead of... Labour. The LibDem vote collapsed. If current trends continue, Labour should walk it. (Last time I saw my MP, in the supermarket, I suggested he start looking for a job outside politics. He pretended not to hear). Was he stealing from the foodbank collection? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted July 20, 2023 Moderator Share Posted July 20, 2023 17 hours ago, tomav84 said: Embarrassing Meanwhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 A reminder for tomorrow when you're being told that "by-elections are always difficult for a Government and they're always an opportunity to give the ruling party a kicking", since 1997 the governing party has won 22 of the 40 by-elections that have been held. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 (edited) 18 minutes ago, ml1dch said: A reminder for tomorrow when you're being told that "by-elections are always difficult for a Government and they're always an opportunity to give the ruling party a kicking", since 1997 the governing party has won 22 of the 40 by-elections that have been held. Didn't take long. I've just heard a Tory say that by elections are rarely won by the governing party. Can't be seen as anything other than a disaster for the Tories if they lose all three given the huge majorities they have in two of them. Edited July 20, 2023 by markavfc40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan95 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Labour overturn a 20K+ majority to win Selby and Aintsy! The Lib Dems took Somerton and Frome overturning a 19K majority The Tories somehow held Uxbridge and South Ruislip though by 495 votes after a recount Those sort of majorities being overturned does look like it could be electoral wipeout at the next election?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan95 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 15 hours ago, bickster said: I think the LibDems might have something to say about that in Frome at least Labour would most likely have won Uxbridge at the next election anyway Selby and Ansty is the real test and I think the Tories will just scrape it. 1 all draw I think 1-1-1 Your 1-1-1 prediction proved correct then but not how you expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 21, 2023 Moderator Share Posted July 21, 2023 1 hour ago, villan95 said: Your 1-1-1 prediction proved correct then but not how you expected Yep, I still think they'll win Uxbridge at the next General Election though. It’s more of a punch in the face for Sadiq Khan than it is for Starmer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 21, 2023 Moderator Share Posted July 21, 2023 Looking at the results, it’s interesting that the shift from Tory to Green appears to be still happening. Given the diverse nature of the three seats and the clear tactical voting to unseat Tories, The Greens increased their vote share in all three by-elections, almost doubling their vote share in Somerton and Frome Its a vote swing that appears to be at odds with perceived wisdom but as much as UKIP / Reclaim / Reform continue to be a minor thorn in the Tories right side, the actual bigger threat from smaller parties to their vote share in a lot of places is statistically the Greens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 1 hour ago, bickster said: Yep, I still think they'll win Uxbridge at the next General Election though. It’s more of a punch in the face for Sadiq Khan than it is for Starmer That’s exactly what it is. The Tory candidate was right (I need a shower now) that Khan lost labour that by-election with his idiotic ulez expansion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 27 minutes ago, bickster said: Looking at the results, it’s interesting that the shift from Tory to Green appears to be still happening. Given the diverse nature of the three seats and the clear tactical voting to unseat Tories, The Greens increased their vote share in all three by-elections, almost doubling their vote share in Somerton and Frome Its a vote swing that appears to be at odds with perceived wisdom but as much as UKIP / Reclaim / Reform continue to be a minor thorn in the Tories right side, the actual bigger threat from smaller parties to their vote share in a lot of places is statistically the Greens. In the most recent Federal Election in Australia the biggest story was not the success of the Labour Party winning back seats to win the election but the loss of wealthy urban Tory seats to independent candidates who combined Tory fiscal policies with environmental policies, calling themselves ‘teal’ (i.e. blue/green) candidates. The Australian Tories got smashed and shrank back to only representing the rural ‘throbber’ style constituencies with dog whistle culture wars and no actual substance. There might be a similar story in play in the U.K.? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, LondonLax said: In the most recent Federal Election in Australia the biggest story was not the success of the Labour Party winning back seats to win the election but the loss of wealthy urban Tory seats to independent candidates who combined Tory fiscal policies with environmental policies, calling themselves ‘teal’ (i.e. blue/green) candidates. The Australian Tories got smashed and shrank back to only representing the rural ‘throbber’ style constituencies with dog whistle culture wars and no actual substance. There might be a similar story in play in the U.K.? Another potential parallel I remember reading is that at the time of the election Albanese wasn't all that popular, and Labour's win was more in spite of, rather than because of him. However after the win his personal ratings shot up massively. Possible hope for Starmer that he might get a better hearing once actually I'm office? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 OK Dorries, this is your time to shine, put down the bottle and actually resign and keep the pain going for them. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, ml1dch said: Another potential parallel I remember reading is that at the time of the election Albanese wasn't all that popular, and Labour's win was more in spite of, rather than because of him. However after the win his personal ratings shot up massively. Possible hope for Starmer that he might get a better hearing once actually I'm office? Yes that is also true and I’m not sure why he was unpopular but I think it was mostly that people had not really thought about him much until he was front and centre as PM. I don’t think he was a liability in the run up to the election, more that he was just a bit beige and uninteresting. The previous Labour leader (Shorton) was from the Union wing and more left of centre than Albanese (though not as controversial a character as Corbyn). He had lost Labour an election they were strongly expected to win leading to Albanese getting a go the next time up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 The problem Labour has, is the media. It’s vindictive and will pull Labour apart if we talk about spending, Brexit and all the things we need to boost the economy. I’m very left wing - but I’ve worked in the media and I’ve seen some absolute shit even at the lowest level - so I understand why Labour are playing safe right now. We are winning in the polls and the media would have a field day saying that we will wreck the economy (and I know it’s already wrecked - but they don’t report the Tory issues, they manufacture lies - good for them and bad for us). So right now I’m comfortable (if uneasy) about the language used by Labour. The press is right centre to far right and we cannot beat that… yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 4 hours ago, bickster said: Looking at the results, it’s interesting that the shift from Tory to Green appears to be still happening. Given the diverse nature of the three seats and the clear tactical voting to unseat Tories, The Greens increased their vote share in all three by-elections, almost doubling their vote share in Somerton and Frome Its a vote swing that appears to be at odds with perceived wisdom but as much as UKIP / Reclaim / Reform continue to be a minor thorn in the Tories right side, the actual bigger threat from smaller parties to their vote share in a lot of places is statistically the Greens. I think well off tories are leaving the party in droves to either the lib dems or greens. That could cost them more than the red wall being taken again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 21, 2023 Moderator Share Posted July 21, 2023 32 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: I think well off tories are leaving the party in droves to either the lib dems or greens. That could cost them more than the red wall being taken again. It would be interesting to see the demographics of the Tory / Green switchers. I'm not sure such data exists but my absolute guess would be that it may be heavily skewed to the younger and female data points, neither of which is good news for the Tories long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, bickster said: It would be interesting to see the demographics of the Tory / Green switchers. I'm not sure such data exists but my absolute guess would be that it may be heavily skewed to the younger and female data points, neither of which is good news for the Tories long term. Probably more like people in their 30's/early 40's, maybe working in the private sector who own their homes but are annoyed with the restrictions of brexit, general economy, and concerned about the climate for the future. The coffin dodgers are still solidly tory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 21, 2023 Author Moderator Share Posted July 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Dodgyknees said: The press is right centre to far right and we cannot beat that… yet. It is, but there's a "but". It seems like the right wing media and press are actually engaged in a kind of death spiral of stupidity. Throbby Tories say stuff that will please throbby papers and GB News etc. Then GB news and the Heil and Torygraph write leader columns and opinion shows where they say throbby ideas, and Tory throbbers pick up those ideas and spout them out...ad infinitum. Meanwhile, the vast majority of people just think "I'm skint, my bills are too high, nothing works like it should, the planet's on fire, everyone's on strike...can't someone just stop banging on about wokers and transgenders and Rwanda and fix stuff so it works and my life is better". Imagine if the tories lose the next election, what will become of them then? will they turn into a hard right even nuttier sect of whoppers. Probably. It doesn't seem like the more rational tories have a look in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 21, 2023 Moderator Share Posted July 21, 2023 39 minutes ago, blandy said: Imagine if the tories lose the next election, what will become of them then? will they turn into a hard right even nuttier sect of whoppers. If the next GE goes as I expect (huge shoeing) then I fully expect Truss to become the next Tory leader again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts