$200 Million Takeover

[DelboyVilla]

 

 

With Leeds all I was saying is you can't sell history to any one but an antique dealer?

 

 

No but you can sell assets, Villa have assets Leeds don't.

 

While the playing squad isn't up to much it is probably worth around £40-50m on its own but lets not get into player valuations.

 

There are better people than me to talk about accounts and assets, Risso for example being the expert on here, but players in terms of a valuation of a club aren't really a consideration. What is taken into account is income, expenditure and profit and fixed assets such as land and property.

 

A comparison with Leeds is a little daft as they have no assets, they don't own their ground, they don't own their club shop, they don't own anything other than the players, their name and league registration. They don't even own their training ground.

 

 

Yes totally agree Trent but McGregor stated we were worth £200m because of our history which is rubbish.

 

Just because we are valued or capitalised at £200m does not guarantee we will find a buyer who is willing to pay this. The value on paper is not always the price paid, that's all I am trying to say.

[TrentVilla]

 

 

 

With Leeds all I was saying is you can't sell history to any one but an antique dealer?

 

 

No but you can sell assets, Villa have assets Leeds don't.

 

While the playing squad isn't up to much it is probably worth around £40-50m on its own but lets not get into player valuations.

 

There are better people than me to talk about accounts and assets, Risso for example being the expert on here, but players in terms of a valuation of a club aren't really a consideration. What is taken into account is income, expenditure and profit and fixed assets such as land and property.

 

A comparison with Leeds is a little daft as they have no assets, they don't own their ground, they don't own their club shop, they don't own anything other than the players, their name and league registration. They don't even own their training ground.

 

 

Yes totally agree Trent but McGregor stated we were worth £200m because of our history which is rubbish.

 

Just because we are valued or capitalised at £200m does not guarantee we will find a buyer who is willing to pay this. The value on paper is not always the price paid, that's all I am trying to say.

 

 

And on both those points I totally agree with you.

[GENTLEMAN]

Our history is worth far more than 200 Million, it is priceless. 

[TrentVilla]

Our history is worth far more than 200 Million, it is priceless. 

 

Yes, in the sense it has no valuation

[Craigy1874]

 

Our history is worth far more than 200 Million, it is priceless. 

 

Yes, in the sense it has no valuation

 

Intangible fixed asset?

[CannockVillan]

Post edited - please stop the giant quotes. TV

 

So the club has had £220m odd of capital injected. So the club can expect to receive £70m per year revenue minimum just from being in the PL.

All these top line figures are completely crap. It's the bottom line that counts and ours (until recently atleast) has been worse than awful. No profit and big losses accumulatign year on year. Why one earth do you think we have had so much capital invested for christ's sake, because we can't break even and the funding has to come from somewhere or you say hello to insolvency. Randy's been financing the club every year since he arrived and even in these last few spendthirft years.

What's important is profit and we have been cutting our cloth to reduce our year on year losses. Ok the finances might be more stable now and we might end up profitable these coming years but that is before you then consider how much money to invest to try to make us competitive again.

The club might be worth £200m but I wouldn't be putting my house on it.

OK Villa has land (which has a value) and the fact that it is currently in the PL brings associated income (but there's no guarantee of that income continuing at that level for any club and especially Villa given the last 3 years.

To keep us stable in the prem league could potentially require a fair bit of investment too which in turn could inflate wages thereby increasing costs.

I'd like to see the accounts covering the 2013/2014 season and see how all the cost cutting measures and increased income have affected things but of course they won't be available for a while yet. At the end of the day not many people buy a PL club with a view to making a mint. These days your lucky if you come out with your shirt still on!

A bad season and your left with not very much at all other than a parachute payment you really didn't want and certainly no guarantee of getting back to the big time.

£200m - maybe. But then again maybe not.

[CannockVillan]

 

To get Leeds to Villa's level (right now) in terms of stadium and training ground investment, Premier League status and breaking even as a business would take time and many millions of pounds.  

 

The fact is if you buy Villa now for two hundred million, you will get that back in three years guaranteed.  Any prospective Villa buyer simply needs money to invest in the team and wages to ensure we are constantly in the Premier League and breaking even...it's far less hassle and risk than buying Leeds.

 

Not quite sure you've got that right McGregor1888.

buy Villa now for £200m

invest £30m plus in trasnfers and wages

Get relegated

Sell and recoup £200m

Don't think so. There are few guarantees in this world that i can think of. That's not one of them.

Before you say you mentioned spending to ensure PL status, i can think of a few clubs that have tried that over the years and failed. Last year was a major example of that with QPR.

Edited May 28, 2014 by CannockVillan

[VillanousOne]

hooray - the arguing what the club is worth thread, second only to the 'should there be hand towels or hand dryers in the VP toilets' thread

The Dyson hand dryers.... obviously

[McGregor1888]

 

 

 

With Leeds all I was saying is you can't sell history to any one but an antique dealer?

 

 

No but you can sell assets, Villa have assets Leeds don't.

 

While the playing squad isn't up to much it is probably worth around £40-50m on its own but lets not get into player valuations.

 

There are better people than me to talk about accounts and assets, Risso for example being the expert on here, but players in terms of a valuation of a club aren't really a consideration. What is taken into account is income, expenditure and profit and fixed assets such as land and property.

 

A comparison with Leeds is a little daft as they have no assets, they don't own their ground, they don't own their club shop, they don't own anything other than the players, their name and league registration. They don't even own their training ground.

 

 

Yes totally agree Trent but McGregor stated we were worth £200m because of our history which is rubbish.

 

Just because we are valued or capitalised at £200m does not guarantee we will find a buyer who is willing to pay this. The value on paper is not always the price paid, that's all I am trying to say.

 

I didn't state we were worth 200 million because of our history.  It's part of the package, for sure, but we're not worth 200 million for history alone.  Infrastructure, easily expandable stadium,  demographics/location and the fact that we get 70 million plus a year in prize money guaranteed is why £200 million is a bargain for Villa.

[VillaHatesMe]

One thing to consider when figuring out how much you can get for Aston Villa: When Lerner bought the club there wasn't all the American money coming in from the television deal with NBC here. If there's anything American sports can teach you, it's that your team can be terrible forever but you'll still make money thanks to television.

[srsmithusa]

isn't there some business rule of thumb that a business is worth 4 times it's annual gross income?

[TrentVilla]

One thing to consider when figuring out how much you can get for Aston Villa: When Lerner bought the club there wasn't all the American money coming in from the television deal with NBC here. If there's anything American sports can teach you, it's that your team can be terrible forever but you'll still make money thanks to television.

 

Yes but there is no relegation in US sport.

isn't there some business rule of thumb that a business is worth 4 times it's annual gross income?

 

EBITDA

[VillaHatesMe]

 

One thing to consider when figuring out how much you can get for Aston Villa: When Lerner bought the club there wasn't all the American money coming in from the television deal with NBC here. If there's anything American sports can teach you, it's that your team can be terrible forever but you'll still make money thanks to television.

 

Yes but there is no relegation in US sport.

 

Very fair point, but the ego of a person spending £200 on a football club doesn't believe it has to worry about relegation. When Randy Lerner bought the team, even though he knew relegation existed, he never thought it'd be his problem.

[TrentVilla]

 

 

One thing to consider when figuring out how much you can get for Aston Villa: When Lerner bought the club there wasn't all the American money coming in from the television deal with NBC here. If there's anything American sports can teach you, it's that your team can be terrible forever but you'll still make money thanks to television.

 

Yes but there is no relegation in US sport.

 

Very fair point, but the ego of a person spending £200 on a football club doesn't believe it has to worry about relegation. When Randy Lerner bought the team, even though he knew relegation existed, he never thought it'd be his problem.

 

 

Tell that to the chap who bought Fulham or those guys at Blackburn. Anyone who buys a PL club without understanding the threat of relegation is an idiot, pure and simple and I wouldn't want them anywhere near our club.

 

As for Lerner, I'm sure he did know about it and I'm sure he never thought it was going to be an issue but then I'm sure he never planned on doing such a terrible job of running the business either.

[VillaHatesMe]

 

 

 

One thing to consider when figuring out how much you can get for Aston Villa: When Lerner bought the club there wasn't all the American money coming in from the television deal with NBC here. If there's anything American sports can teach you, it's that your team can be terrible forever but you'll still make money thanks to television.

 

Yes but there is no relegation in US sport.

 

Very fair point, but the ego of a person spending £200 on a football club doesn't believe it has to worry about relegation. When Randy Lerner bought the team, even though he knew relegation existed, he never thought it'd be his problem.

 

 

Tell that to the chap who bought Fulham or those guys at Blackburn. Anyone who buys a PL club without understanding the threat of relegation is an idiot, pure and simple and I wouldn't want them anywhere near our club.

 

As for Lerner, I'm sure he did know about it and I'm sure he never thought it was going to be an issue but then I'm sure he never planned on doing such a terrible job of running the business either.

 

That's my point. Anybody buying a club knows it's there, but it's the whole "that will never happen to me, I'm too good/smart/handsome" etc

[McGrath1874]

Obviously I'm biased, but we are the biggest club in the second biggest city in the UK . With an excellent stadium and proud history. I just think there's huge potential for us and therefore we would be a good investment for someone wanting to build a successful premiership team.

[Silent_Bob]

 

£200m - maybe. But then again maybe not.

 

If a new owner sold every player this summer, he could expect £40-50m for them. Then he could get a squad of cheap players playing for £1k per week, who would no doubt be relegated. But he would still collect £70m from TV. And on top of that receive parachute payments from Premier League over the next years of £60m. Then he could sell Bodymoor Heath, Villa Park and whatever else the club owns.

 

So for an asset stripper the club would be worth around £200m.

 

I'm not saying we will be sold for £200m, but my guess is that it will be in that region. 

[keefa3011]

Obviously I'm biased, but we are the biggest club in the second biggest city in the UK . With an excellent stadium and proud history. I just think there's huge potential for us and therefore we would be a good investment for someone wanting to build a successful premiership team.

I agree. A very good stadium, top training facilities, a big (and largely loyal) fan base a decent youth academy set up and one of the best playing facilities in the country.

 

All that's missing is the first team playing squad imo.

[DelboyVilla]

 

 

£200m - maybe. But then again maybe not.

 

If a new owner sold every player this summer, he could expect £40-50m for them. Then he could get a squad of cheap players playing for £1k per week, who would no doubt be relegated. But he would still collect £70m from TV. And on top of that receive parachute payments from Premier League over the next years of £60m. Then he could sell Bodymoor Heath, Villa Park and whatever else the club owns.

 

So for an asset stripper the club would be worth around £200m.

 

I'm not saying we will be sold for £200m, but my guess is that it will be in that region. 

 

 

 

I think the parachute payment is £60m spread over 3 years i.e. £20m a year.

 

Plus we have been losing money for years because even though TV has been always increasing so have things like players wages etc. so owning a Prem club is not really the best way to make money and is a very easy way to piss money up the wall.

 

Owning a Prem club is a status thing really?

[Silent_Bob]

Obviously I'm biased, but we are the biggest club in the second biggest city in the UK . With an excellent stadium and proud history. I just think there's huge potential for us and therefore we would be a good investment for someone wanting to build a successful premiership team.

 

The thing is that for Abramovich he only had to outspend Man United. The guys at Man City had to outspend Man United AND Chelsea. While our new owner will have to outspend Man United, Man City and Chelsea.

 

So it would mean investing £3-400m in players straight away. But he would also have to pay their wages, as there is no way our income will increase enough fast enough to cover them. So to be the next Man City, a new owner would have to invest close to £1 billion for the club and everything over a few seasons just to get us up to the level of these clubs. And that is assuming he hires the right manager and get the right players from the start. 

 

I think competing against Spurs, Everton, Liverpool etc will also require a lot of investment. So unless we get an owner with really deep pockets who is ready to burn a lot of cash, midtable is what we should aiming at.