thunderball

Interesting article in the Athletic by Matt Slater this week about data and analytics in modern football. They refer to 'Data Analytics' a private company that goes beyond individual analysis by running models based on data plus current club statistic around playing style, tactics etc to predict the table. They model each club over 1m fixtures for an average and previously correctly predicted that Leicester would win the title in 2016 and Chelsea by 7 points in 2017, that Arsenal would finish outside the top 4 for the first time last season, Liverpool finishing 3rd after VVD's injury. They even suggest how many points individual players will contribute to a team's season. Apparently they are commissioned by many top clubs for this reason when looking at the impact of recruitment. Anyway, they have the following predictions for next season here (note this was run LAST WEEK and based on current [predominantly end of last season's] player personnel prior to most current new signings, so this will change. Not sure if Buendia was included for us, but maybe): Here's the table, plus chance of winning the title, avg points, top-4 chance & relegation chance 1. Man City, 70.2% chance of winning, 84.5 avg pts, 99.2% top 4, 0% relegation2. Liverpool, 19.6%, 77.2pts, 92.4%, 0%3. Chelsea, 7.2%, 72.6pts, 78.7%, 0%4. United, 1.2%, 65.8pts, 42.6%, 0%5. Spurs, 0.9%, 64.5pts, 35.3%, 0%6. Arsenal, 0.7%, 63.5pts, 31.4%, 0%7. Leicester, 0.2%, 59.7pts, 14.9%, 0.1%8. Brighton, 0%, 50.7pts, 1.5%, 2%9. Wolves, 0%, 50.6pts, 1.5%, 2.2%10. Leeds, 0%, 49.1pts, 0.9%, 3.3%11. West Ham, 0%, 48.7pts, 0.8%, 3.6%12. Villa, 0%, 46.2pts, 0.3%, 7.1%13. Everton, 0%, 45.1pts, 0.2%, 9.3%14. Palace, 0%, 44pts, 0.1%, 11.8%15. Brentford, 0%, 43.6pts, 0.1%, 13%16. Watford, 0%, 37.7pts, 0%, 38.9%17. Southampton, 0%, 37.2pts, 0%, 40.7%18. Newcastle, 0%, 35.6pts, 0%, 50.9%19. Burnley, 0%, 35.3pts, 0%, 52.1%20. Norwich, 0%, 33.3pts, 0%, 65.2% We need new signings! (Wolves is interesting??). We are only 3 points better off than Brentford! Matt Slater suggests that Villa is a surprise, especially as we have fewer points than last season. For me though what it might suggest is that even if Grealish goes, we might add new player(s) whose attributes improve the formula and it benefits the team. Thats my [desperate] silver lining anyway...

What’s clear is the established players face competition from the possibility of new signings but also from the hungry and very talented youngsters who are banging on the door. Everyone is going need these games to showcase their desire and application. Would love Freddie to challenge for a start but just feel the more established players cannot be complacent in these warm up games and didn’t think they did. I felt those four could and should have been dictating the second half, they were outshone by others. Early days and lots of hard work ahead clearly.

Mixed bag second half: Guilbert, Hourihane, McGinn, Wesley all failing to catch the eye or turn it on. Youngsters great.

Our youngsters really are very good, quite a few will be first teamers in due course.

Looks a long way behind everyone on this showing. Has a lot to do to catch up, just needs a goal to give himself a lift

The market is generally quiet, but usually is until the very end. I am sure the club are waiting until the dust settles around Jack because if he goes we have different priorities and more money for targets. But it does seem we want a new #10, that will be the exciting one. I also think we are waiting for interest around Luiz to manifest, I think he might be surplus to what we need and if we had the right offer he would go and we would buy a heavy weight DM. With a fully fit squad (excluding Trez) I would be happy to start the season with what we have: Sanson, Buendia and Nakamba will offer much more this season, the old McGinn will hopefully turn up, Traore and AEG should build on a decent season, Ollie should kick on and we will hopefully have Jack for more than 2/3rds of the season. I think we will improve with what we have. Could do with a little bit more solidity and fairy dust though if we are serious about Europe.

….or Alvarez or Pereira

Staying with the kids in Porthmadog, North Wales for a few days, its absolutely ROASTING, its actually too hot. 32 degrees yesterday and no wind, must have ‘felt like’ about 36+, it was unbearable, even the house was like a Sauna. I didn’t cool down until 11pm.

If this happens I’m done with football, the game is doomed. Barry, Milner, Delph, Grealish. FFP puts a lid on everyone and ensures the status quo in perpetuity, anomalies like Leicester are only a blip and the money smooths it over soon enough. If they can cherry pick Grealish and Kane the PL becomes another Scots or French league. It’s a joke. For the love of the game I pray this doesn’t happen. If it does we are back to uncomfortable bottom half again.

At least if he doesn’t sign in the next 24hrs we know he’s full of it, he’s hauled his flag right up there for everyone to see, there’s no wriggle room.

“Paperwork competition”

an agreement was reached to move Julian Alvarez to Aston Villa. 9M rate € + potential 3M add ons € . The medical exam will be completed in Argentina today and he will fly tomorrow for the paperwork competition.#villa#avfc#riverplate#transfers per @TNTSportsAR

an agreement was reached to move Julian Alvarez to Aston Villa. 9M rate € + potential 3M add ons € . The medical exam will be completed in Argentina today and he will fly tomorrow for the paperwork competition.#villa#avfc#riverplate#transfers per @TNTSportsAR

He is Southgate’s maverick, his wild card. He clearly values him as he is quite often his go to sub, that’s a lot of trust and responsibility given there. This England team is the perfect example of using a squad intelligently.

Rubbish. How about vs Germany and vs Ukraine and vs Denmark in this tournament? All when it matters, under pressure. Southgate is doing a very professional job: Semi final of the World Cup; comfortable qualifying campaign; now a final at the Euros. He also engendered a “Club England” that never existed, it’s a long game at play here and he is at the heart of it. He has totally turned me around, take your claret and blue glasses off for a moment and accept his decisions are making the difference. And FWIW I thought taking Jack off last night was the wrong decision because it invited pressure when we were comfortable on the front foot, but I understood why he made that calculated change and it certainly didn’t cost him. Safety first, playing the percentages is why we are in a final. TBH I didn’t think Jack made as much of an impact as we might have hoped even though he was solid I think it was an easy decision for Southgate given the context of the game, and even if his curling shot from the corner of the box had gone in, he would still have taken him off. I don’t think we will beat Italy, but I think we have a better chance under Southgate than any other manager in the last 50 years.

Hopefully we sell Davis then debate is over. He has nothing to offer, how he gets a pass on here amazes me. Yes he has his moments but he offers and shows much less than say Kozak who gets pelters on here? Where we are going, how can we ever justify a place on the bench for Davis?

Pissflaps or @Pissflaps?

In fairness Cantwell at the right price would be a decent squad player, same could also be said about Winks. Neither excite me and I do hope our first team 11 ambition is greater than this. This is what happens when you get links to ESR and JWP then you end up with Cantwell and Winks.

Let’s just trust our recruitment team?

£40m for Abraham seems about right for his age, talent and record. Given his relative youth, I think he would be a very good signing, especially if Wesley moves on. My only worry is the money going on him and not elsewhere as despite the owners deep pockets, FFP only allows so much to be spent and I would love to see JWP, ESR, Sarr or similar before, and its a toss up between Tammy and Alvarez thereafter. If we do sign him however it wont be a poor signing.

Wilson is a decent player, he showed that last season. He would have been good here and it’s a shame it didn’t come off, we clearly wanted him. He went to Newcastle over us because his son loved the film “Goal”. We can’t compete with that.

I am not dismissing your post, but we don’t have to be sustainable yet, and inevitably we won’t be until be get to the Champions League, that’s the strategy. We will continue to lose money every year while we build the squad that gets us there or they give up. NSWE have already invested nearly £500m and that would be a very poor investment to just be mid table, they need to get into CL to justify the investment. We are pretty close and strategically are not that far away given the structural challenges the traditional top 6 face and our free spending bravery. That’s why I don’t see Jack being sold.

If we have world class players you pay the corresponding wage or they become unsettled. I don’t see a problem with that, forget contracts. If we want to be amongst the top you secure the talent otherwise we are dreamers. We have a chance with NSWE

Looks to me like its all about a nice new contract for Jack, just the Agent doing his bit for his client.....

No way will Purslow and NSWE roll over that easily, that is BS unless there is a release clause. £100m means nothing to us, and Jack and his Agent will need to just suck it up (for another season at least).