Please, point us in the direction of where someone actually said that? No one has said they were wrong or probably wrong. What was said was the change between the two isn't in itself statistically significant. Those scientists you talk about actually said as much themseleves. No-one here is disagreeing with the scientists you mention.
Here's what valance said (for the seond time of posting today).
BBC
All that has happened in this thread is that people have posted a different way of saying the exact same thing as the governments figures, one that sounds far less horrendous
If you don't understand this, I can help you no further