TartarugaJones Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 You need incredible consistency to win the title these days. Incredible to think that Man. United went until May before they actually went two league games without winning. They won 29 of their 38 league games (and could easily have been more but they eased off in the last few weeks like that West Brom game), could Spurs do that? I don't think so. Around 85-90 points to win the league these days, Spurs got 70 didn't they last time (and I'd argue 20 of those came pretty much singlehandly from individual brilliance from one man) Opposition teams will look at Spurs at home as a game more likely for them to pick up points than say the two Manchester clubs and Chelsea and will put in a performance accordingly. Only way us or Spurs will ever win the league again is if it's a Dubai scale takeover I'm sorry to say. And even then it's not cast in stone. Borussia Dortmund! I like Dortmund, but them as an example is overblown. Germanys different from England because they only have one club with huge financial power whereas England has at least 3, plus Dortmund are one of the biggest German clubs, they just fell on hard times. 80000 fans regularly, it's not quite comparable Except their CL finalist team contained only one player who they'd spent more than £5m on. Although they are in Germany, where you're right after BM there are no real financial behemoths, they still have to compete on the world market for their players, and they compete against Europe's best in the CL. What they have is a formidable combination of owners, Sporting Director, Scouts, Manager, and coaches all pulling in the same direction and agreeing on what makes a winning team, and crucially being right in their convictions. They won't be right every season, but they regularly sell their best players and replace them with bargains and their team continues to perform. They - and Arsenal from the late 90's early 2000's - have to the model for teams like Villa and Spurs. It's very difficult, but I simply don't accept that it's impossible for us to do it without a benefactor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TartarugaJones Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I think we are already outside bets, shorter than the bookies have us anyway. I also think Arsenal and Liverpool are outside bets. I don't, I don't think you are even close to be being in the running. With or without Bale I don't think Spurs will be within 10 points of the title, probably 15 points or more away. And I think you will finish above the other two so they will be even further behind. It will be a 3 horse race for the title but it won't go to anyone outside those three or even come close to doing. There's a difference between what's likely and what's possible. If you said to me that on rolling a dice it's likely I'd throw any number but a six, you'd be correct, however that doesn't rule out rolling a six. We got 72 points last season, two seasons ago that would have got us second. Arsenal, Liverpool, and ourselves are long-shots, but in my opinion it's not as improbable as you think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFCforever1991 Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Liverpool won't win the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Rev Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Liverpool have about as much chance of winning the league as we do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TartarugaJones Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Liverpool won't win the league. Almost certainly not, but stranger things have happened. But actually we were talking about challenging, and/or being within 10 points of the winners. Still improbable, but less so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardCanning Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Liverpool won't win the league. Almost certainly not, but stranger things have happened. But actually we were talking about challenging, and/or being within 10 points of the winners. Still improbable, but less so. Stranger things used to happen but sadly we are now in the Premier League era whereby the side winning the title will have finished in the top 4 in the prior season. Thanks Sky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 TJ I always remember Redknapp every November would come out with the "why can't we win the league" gibberish (think it was after that Arsenal 3-2 away win) and by May it had been quietly downgraded to "yeah guvnor we're doing amazingly well to finish 5th". Even if Spurs are in the mix March time, say 5 points off leaders like Chelsea, would they have the bottle to continue winning right through to May. The fact they collapse and let Arsenal in for 4th traditionally would say to me no. And yes 70 points was an exceptional effort but don't think I'm too OTT to say Bale won 20 points on his own given how many specatular last minute winners he scored from games heading to draws. I just don't see it if he leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted August 16, 2013 Moderator Share Posted August 16, 2013 We got 72 points last season, two seasons ago that would have got us second. Arsenal, Liverpool, and ourselves are long-shots, but in my opinion it's not as improbable as you think! I don't take any notice of x points would have done x in a different season, such comparisons are entirely meaningless. Obviously I'm not saying it is impossible for Spurs to win the league, it is possible just as it is possible Hull will win it. It still isn't going to happen, not a chance. Spurs will be in the region of 10-15 points of the title. You were 17 points off last season and at this moment in time, even though you've added to your squad and Man Utd haven't I just don't see you having a prayer of closing that gap enough to put you in with a shout. And that is with you holding on to Bale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TartarugaJones Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 (edited) TJ I always remember Redknapp every November would come out with the "why can't we win the league" gibberish (think it was after that Arsenal 3-2 away win) and by May it had been quietly downgraded to "yeah guvnor we're doing amazingly well to finish 5th". Even if Spurs are in the mix March time, say 5 points off leaders like Chelsea, would they have the bottle to continue winning right through to May. The fact they collapse and let Arsenal in for 4th traditionally would say to me no. And yes 70 points was an exceptional effort but don't think I'm too OTT to say Bale won 20 points on his own given how many specatular last minute winners he scored from games heading to draws. I just don't see it if he leaves. We've finished 4th two of the last four years. We didn't collapse last year for instance. 2 ppg in 2013, 18 from our last 8, meant only Arsenal and Utd had a better record in 2013. In fact we were 2 ppg from September 1st, so remarkably consistent. Unfortunately we lacked depth, so when Sandro got injured we had no like-for-like cover. Parker came in a did his best but his age was showing, and AVB was forced to play Dembele every game and so he inevitably flagged. We also had to rely on Defoe as a lone striker for long periods of the year, and then for a while we had no fit strikers at all. Similarly our best CB missed the entire season. So new manager, new tactics, in a scratch team which had just lost Kaboul, King, Modric and VdV and we improved as the season went on. We beat Arsenal, Liverpool, Utd, and City last season, we battered Utd at WHL, we dominated Liverpool at Anfield. The ingredients are there, we shall just have to wait and see whether they can be put together so as to be more than the sum of their parts! Edited August 17, 2013 by TartarugaJones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TartarugaJones Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 (edited) We got 72 points last season, two seasons ago that would have got us second. Arsenal, Liverpool, and ourselves are long-shots, but in my opinion it's not as improbable as you think! I don't take any notice of x points would have done x in a different season, such comparisons are entirely meaningless. Obviously I'm not saying it is impossible for Spurs to win the league, it is possible just as it is possible Hull will win it. It still isn't going to happen, not a chance. Spurs will be in the region of 10-15 points of the title. You were 17 points off last season and at this moment in time, even though you've added to your squad and Man Utd haven't I just don't see you having a prayer of closing that gap enough to put you in with a shout. And that is with you holding on to Bale. Haha. Not meaningless, not impossible, not the same chance as Hull, yes a chance. I think it's just you like to be emphatic though. The saying of the day: People within the paradigm rarely realise the shift when it arrives! (Just made that up but seems like it could be a saying) Edited August 17, 2013 by TartarugaJones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted August 17, 2013 Moderator Share Posted August 17, 2013 Haha. Not meaningless, not impossible, not the same chance as Hull, yes a chance. I think it's just you like to be emphatic though. Yes it is, it is entirely meaningless. Actually, yes exactly the same chance. Hull and Spurs both exactly the same opportunity to be able to win the league. One is more likely than the other but the chance is the same. Spurs won't win the league, they won't even be close as I stated in my previous prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers13 Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Haha. Not meaningless, not impossible, not the same chance as Hull, yes a chance. I think it's just you like to be emphatic though. Yes it is, it is entirely meaningless. Actually, yes exactly the same chance. Hull and Spurs both exactly the same opportunity to be able to win the league. One is more likely than the other but the chance is the same. Spurs won't win the league, they won't even be close as I stated in my previous prediction. All a side can control is how many points they get, they can't control what the sides around them get. So no, in determining if a side did well or trying to predict how well they'll do in the future, its not meaningless. Also, saying "one is more likely than the other but the chance is the same," makes no sense. If they are more likely than they have a better chance. Probability is how likely something is to happen. They're both very unlikely, but one is way, way more likely to win it than the other. I believe Taratuga was right, you like to be emphatic and exaggerate a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 You did collapse last season. Straight after you beat Arsenal you were what 7 points clear of them and immediately lost at Liverpool and more ridiculously at home to Fulham (given how bad they are away from home) letting them right back in. Anyway must win at Palace today if you want to win this league thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted August 18, 2013 Moderator Share Posted August 18, 2013 in determining if a side did well or trying to predict how well they'll do in the future, its not meaningless. Also, saying "one is more likely than the other but the chance is the same," makes no sense. If they are more likely than they have a better chance. Probability is how likely something is to happen. They're both very unlikely, but one is way, way more likely to win it than the other. I believe Taratuga was right, you like to be emphatic and exaggerate a lot If you actually read what I posted I don't think I've exaggerated anything. You might also see that I myself have referenced the points gap between Spurs and United last season because yes it is an indication of how they will do in the future. However what is meaningless is saying X team would have finished in y place with the points they got in one season in another season. That is utterly meaningless and not and not an indication that Spurs are in the title race simply because their points total last season would have put them in the race in other seasons. As I've said previously, Spurs were 17 points behind United last season. I don't see them closing that gap sufficiently this season to put them in contention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Paulinho looks crap. He's all over the pitch but not in a good way. I don't think I'll keep in my fantasy team for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Always a risk that he'd be an expensive, Brazilian hype-job. Still, early days, can't really judge based of half a game lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoD Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Its funny, the commentators have been banging about how well Spurs are playing but in 45 minutes they not really created a decent chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Good jesus this is painful. Palace are utter gash and Spurs are not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Its funny, the commentators have been banging about how well Spurs are playing but in 45 minutes they not really created a decent chance. tippy-tappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted August 18, 2013 Moderator Share Posted August 18, 2013 Title contenders though guys don't forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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