The Randy Lerner thread

[blandy]

When might this be?

When have they been making losses - every year

or when might they plan to spend on players again? - when they're not losing money just paying the wages.

The same people have been saying it for awhile.

And they're right to. It's bleedin' obvious to absolutely everyone who cares to look that we've been making losses. They sent letters to the season ticket holders and other fans saying as much.

And whats the point of being able to spend if you're in the championship?

the point of being able to spend, is self evident, whatever division you're in. You can bring in new players and strengthen the squad.

Look, I don't know a single Villa fan who doesn't think we'd benefit hugely from spending money now. Not one. Paul Lambert thinks it would be a good idea. Clearly, the board and manager have tried to sign players, Lambert's said so. But the wages and fees have been out of our reach. I don't like it, but I think I can understand why they're unable/unwilling to spend more than a limited amount. I don't like the mess any more or less than anyone else, I'm trying to talk about why it's like it is.

And Trent, yes, compo is basically part of the wages really - wages they have to pay to people they potted.

Feel free to tell me what i've been wrong about since the day MON left?

You seem to have held two opposing views on Paul Lambert within the space of a about a month. It's fine to change your mind, based on new evidence, or information - only a fool wouldn't, but it does mean that you were wrong before, to think he was good, or are wrong now to think he isn't.

Finally made a good decision to hire Lambert but doesn't make up for all the mistakes just yet.

To me it shows how shit Lambert has been when he actually makes me take some of the blame away from Lerner.

. It's this I find frustrating. Trying to discuss something with someone who seems to hold multiple different views, and who seems to think that they have a monopoly on wisdom. None of us do.

[Big_John_10]

I thought lambert would be good and based on actual evidence and what I've seen I'll admit he hasn't been.

Bit different to your continued support of Lerner no matter what the evidence actually suggests.

[blandy]

Can they? Such as who?

There's quite a few clubs who are able to operate on an even keel. It's the right way to operate, and it looks like Villa, belatedly are trying to do the same. Albion seem to. Arsenal seem to. Wolves I think, many lower league clubs sell players and re-invest. There's probably about 20-25% of clubs operate in that sane way, and many more trying to.

It's the transition from spending money you don't have to operating properly that is the painful part. CHrist knows where we'll end up as a result of doing it, and from purely the point of having a decent side to watch, it's doubly painful.

Seems to be there's basically 3 alternatives

Randy reverts to "doping" the club with his own money, in a bid to keep us up, or for longer. But eventually he'll run out of money and or the will to do it any more.

We sort the finances out and get stable and then try and work our way back up from however far we've fallen

Randy does what Richard wants (I think) and finds someone even richer to carry on with the financial doping.

There's a good argument to be made for the first option, though it only kicks the problem down the road, perhaps.

The second option for me is how all clubs ought to operate

and the third is not a short term solution to the current poor team, and is somewhat uncertain to end happily anyway, even if someone can be found.

By far the best thing would be to get people in to add knowledge and understanding in the areas where RL and PF are sorely lacking.

[smetrov]

When might this be?

The same people have been saying it for awhile.

And whats the point of being able to spend if you're in the championship?

I think the desire to purge wages is our problem - I amazed as to how many people see it as the solution. With one or two exceptions football clubs run at loss - thats why supporters get excited when an oil rich arab takes over the club. - He will take the losses on the chin to make the club great.

 

Quite why Randy brought a football club, seemingly expecting it to return a profit is beyond me. 

[Big_John_10]

Could we not try to operate on an even keel over a longer period. It seems to me we've planned to do this in a drastically short time frame and its resulted in where we are now.

And if we're relegated how will that help us operate the way you want? If we're lucky enough to bounce back up how will we then survive trying to operate that way while other teams benefit from the extra tv money we missed out on?

[Big_John_10]

Quite why Randy brought a football club, seemingly expecting it to return a profit is beyond me.

I think most of his decisons at this club and the browns show him to just be a bit of a **** up.

[smetrov]

There's quite a few clubs who are able to operate on an even keel. It's the right way to operate, and it looks like Villa, belatedly are trying to do the same. Albion seem to. Arsenal seem to. Wolves I think, many lower league clubs sell players and re-invest. There's probably about 20-25% of clubs operate in that sane way, and many more trying to.

It's the transition from spending money you don't have to operating properly that is the painful part. CHrist knows where we'll end up as a result of doing it, and from purely the point of having a decent side to watch, it's doubly painful.

Seems to be there's basically 3 alternatives

Randy reverts to "doping" the club with his own money, in a bid to keep us up, or for longer. But eventually he'll run out of money and or the will to do it any more.

We sort the finances out and get stable and then try and work our way back up from however far we've fallen

Randy does what Richard wants (I think) and finds someone even richer to carry on with the financial doping.

There's a good argument to be made for the first option, though it only kicks the problem down the road, perhaps.

The second option for me is how all clubs ought to operate

and the third is not a short term solution to the current poor team, and is somewhat uncertain to end happily anyway, even if someone can be found.

By far the best thing would be to get people in to add knowledge and understanding in the areas where RL and PF are sorely lacking.

 

But wouldn't £70m TV money help put us on an even keel ? - The parachute payment is only £20m - so the club is trying to get  on an even keel - by opting out of £50m a year..................as they say 'Good luck with that' 

[blandy]

I thought lambert would be good and based on actual evidence and what I've seen I'll admit he hasn't been.

Bit different to your continued support of Lerner no matter what the evidence actually suggests.

What continued support of Lerner? I think either I haven't explained very well, or you haven't understood very well.

My view on Lerner is that he's not as bad as some people make out. I have repeatedly said he's made all sorts of mistakes, from managerial appointments, to poor communication, to poor control of finances and so on.

What I've been trying to do is to say

1) in my view, despite making some of the same mistakes as Ellis, he's nowhere near as bad, though gradually he's narrowing the gap.

2) Having spent 200+ million on the club, whether I like it or not, I can see that given he doesn't have endless money, he cannot just keep paying 50 million a year to balance out losses. He has to sort out the club to run itself.

3) I have been trying to put the other side of the coin to much that's been said. I've also tried to be fair - I think, for example, like a team that finds itself 3-0 down then gets a draw - by all means criticise for the first half, but if they pull it back, then I'd give them credit for the fightback - that's what I mean when I said I'd give the board (and the rest of the club) credit if we stay up and sort out the finances. Yes, they've made lots of mistakes, but if they overcome them and recover, then fair play for that aspect.

I don't see any immediate alternative to Lerner. I think talk of finding an Arab billionaire to turn up and "save us" is currently fanciful - it's just a notional distraction from reality.

I think we'll get relegated. I think the people responsible will be the Board, manager and players. Ultimately Randy will be responsibke. It'll mean the better players leaving, people losing their jobs, cutbacks in scouting, academy spending, all sorts of areas. It'll be bad for the club, bad for Randy and bad for the fans.

It wouldn't spoil my week or day, as I've said before. There's more importnt things in life to cry over than which league a football team plays in.

Randy has (as I've kept saying) a responsibilty to do the best he can. If he's doing his best at the moment, then it's not working, and he needs to get smarter, fast.

If criticising him when it's justified, and doing the same with crediting him when justified, is "supporting him" then I'm guilty. Much the same as with the team or players - if they play well then credit them, and if they play badly, then criticism is fair enough.

Blanket criticism whatever happens, all this "blame" and "scapegoating" concentrating on someone to the exclusion of almost everything else, a desperation to find someone to metaphorically slaughter is not for me. Not how may mind works

[nobler]

I do sense though that some are in such a state of mass panic at the moment that they are willing for anything possible to happen to avoid relegation without rational thought. If say Lerner was panicking and was as anxious as a certain section of the support, did a QPR - offered 60-80k a week on 4-5 players and again took loans to pay the transfer/signing on fees out of sheer desperation that those players could somehow come in an rescue us and it didn't happen it would imo be more catastrophic for the future of the club than the current way things are. Let's face it, to transform the squad so much with only 15 games left and expect 5/6 wins is a very tall order.

 

The damage now has been done for me, so it's about taking the hit, doing what we can possible to get the club as financially sound as possible and trying to make it back up first time around, i.e do a Newcastle. Some seem to think that we are absolutely doomed and we'll definitely do a Leeds. I don't see it that way. We do have sellable assets in Benteke, Bent, Gabby, Guzan, along with the parachute payments to weather the storm for a short while.

 

Remember, the worst mismanagement of finances of this club isn't at the moment, it was under O'Neill when we were spending insane amounts of money, when we were all saying Lerner was a fantastic owner. Doing the same again now, knowing what a mess we're actually in would depress me even more. Honestly, If we were doing what QPR were doing at the moment I would be very, very concerned that we'd end up being the next Portsmouth and I don't want that, obviously.

 

As tough as relegation will be for us to take, making the right decisions now and not being clouded by panic means that we will still have our beloved club competing in English football, we'll still be going to games, supporting the team, coming on message boards discussing tactics/players/games etc and ultimately still be proud of our club even if not competing in the top flight. It's a football cycle, it's life. 

Edited January 26, 2013 by nobler

[Big_John_10]

At the start of the summer and even at the start of January it would not have taken us doing a QPR to survive so i don't buy that argument at all.

Lerner had the opportunity to fix a few mistakes in the summer and he ended up adding to them.

[blandy]

Could we not try to operate on an even keel over a longer period. It seems to me we've planned to do this in a drastically short time frame and its resulted in where we are now.

I agree completely. The board and manager have cut and changed too fast - both with the funding and with the playing staff on the pitch.

And if we're relegated how will that help us operate the way you want? If we're lucky enough to bounce back up how will we then survive trying to operate that way while other teams benefit from the extra tv money we missed out on?

It won't help. Why would you think I believe it would? Why are you even asking that kind of question? - it's like you're talking about what you are guessing I believe, rather than what I actually say and believe.

I want us to operate the way I described. It'll be easier, by far, if we stay up. I want us to stay up, for that reason and many others, but it's not going to kill me if we go down. Far from it. I'll still go when I can.

If we do go down, which seems likely, then they'll end up having to re-restart, but from a weaker starting point.

Where we were at the start of the season, as a result of what they were trying to do, was likea promoted club - no experience, loads of kids, not much money (though he still spent 20 odd million). It's like an experimant, and no-one's done it before - take an established Prem club, dismantle the team and try and rebuild from scratch while staying up. Like I've said, it's high risk, it almost automatically means you're going to be in the bottom 6, along with a couple of other underachievers and the recently promoted clubs.

In the parallel universe of football, it'd be great to just keep magicing moeny and buying players and changing managers - a kind of Chelsea approach, but that's not the real world for us. You can either take the Richard view, and call for that fantasy to turn up, or for RL to try and make it happen, or you can kind of accept that that's not realistic (IMO) and work out how the club should operate away from that universe of Gazzilionaires.

We're making a painful transition, via this experiment. It's not much fun, that's for sure. And I'd like football to be fun.

[blandy]

At the start of the summer and even at the start of January it would not have taken us doing a QPR to survive so i don't buy that argument at all.

Lerner had the opportunity to fix a few mistakes in the summer and he ended up adding to them.

He's (they've) fixed some and made some. Yes.

[blandy]

But wouldn't £70m TV money help put us on an even keel ? - The parachute payment is only £20m - so the club is trying to get  on an even keel - by opting out of £50m a year..................as they say 'Good luck with that'

It would. If we could guarantee getting it. But we can't. So as various people have said, you (Randy) has to make a judgement based on where things are. We have a shrinking, but still too high wage bill. Darren Bent, for example, like I said the other day - he's cost about 36 million so far (transfer fee and wages). Turned out he helped keep us up, under Houllier. At the time, the TV money was a lot less than it'll be next year, so on purely financial terms, he didn't "save" any money. He did help save status and so on, and I'm glad it worked.

The worry for the board would be if we spend the money on 2 or 3 players (assuming they want to come) and we still go down. Then we're worse off, not better off.

Personally, I think they'll maybe spend a bit in the next few days, maybe, or go with some loans, maybe. It'll guarantee nothing, and I doubt it'll work.

This club has unfortunately been pants for 3 years, nearly.

We're still paying off the loans taken out to get players to try and get Champions league - the same argument about the 70 mill TV money - spend the money on fees and wages and get it back from being in the Champs League. Except we didn't get it back. Once bitten, twice shy, perhaps?

[smetrov]

I do sense though that some are in such a state of mass panic at the moment that they are willing for anything possible to happen to avoid relegation without rational thought. If say Lerner was panicking and was as anxious as a certain section of the support, did a QPR - offered 60-80k a week on 4-5 players and again took loans to pay the transfer/signing on fees out of sheer desperation that those players could somehow come in an rescue us and it didn't happen it would imo be more catastrophic for the future of the club than the current way things are. Let's face it, to transform the squad so much with only 15 games left and expect 5/6 wins is a very tall order.

 

The damage now has been done for me, so it's about taking the hit, doing what we can possible to get the club as financially sound as possible and trying to make it back up first time around, i.e do a Newcastle. Some seem to think that we are absolutely doomed and we'll definitely do a Leeds. I don't see it that way. We do have sellable assets in Benteke, Bent, Gabby, Guzan, along with the parachute payments to weather the storm for a short while.

 

Remember, the worst mismanagement of finances of this club isn't at the moment, it was under O'Neill when we were spending insane amounts of money, when we were all saying Lerner was a fantastic owner. Doing the same again now, knowing what a mess we're actually in would depress me even more. Honestly, If we were doing what QPR were doing at the moment I would be very, very concerned that we'd end up being the next Portsmouth and I don't want that, obviously.

 

As tough as relegation will be for us to take, making the right decisions now and not being clouded by panic means that we will still have our beloved club competing in English football, we'll still be going to games, supporting the team, coming on message boards discussing tactics/players/games etc and ultimately still be proud of our club even if not competing in the top flight. It's a football cycle, it's life. 

 

A couple of points:-

 

Our position in the league table isn't beyond hope.

 

Sorting the finances - by opting out of a £70m windfall doesn't seem like a good move to me.

 

A decent CB, and defensive midfielder - needn't cost the earth - and would give us a really chance of staying up- say £10-12m on 2 players - is that not worth it to try and snare that £70m of TV money ?

[nobler]

I sort of think it is beyond hope though, just my opinion of course. I just saw the confidence and even physical development of the core of younger players just absolutely demolish over Christmas, possibly destroying them long term, I see a team resigned to its fate now. Of course I'm not saying relegation is a good idea at all, it can never be, i'm sort of saying that I would rather we dealt with relegation rationally and sensibly rather than once again spending beyond our means just to give ourselves a slight chance. 

 

I also agree with you that a decent cb and mid need'nt cost the earth that could make a big difference. My point really was that, if we had gone out and bought in 4/5 players on huge wages, we'd have people forgiving Randy, doing trophy emoticons, saying

"Villa are back" "We can now stay up" etc etc, but in reality we're not financially in a position to do it, we are absolutely skint and it would only hurt us more long term as things currently stand.

Edited January 26, 2013 by nobler

[smetrov]

It would. If we could guarantee getting it. But we can't. So as various people have said, you (Randy) has to make a judgement based on where things are. We have a shrinking, but still too high wage bill. Darren Bent, for example, like I said the other day - he's cost about 36 million so far (transfer fee and wages). Turned out he helped keep us up, under Houllier. At the time, the TV money was a lot less than it'll be next year, so on purely financial terms, he didn't "save" any money. He did help save status and so on, and I'm glad it worked.

The worry for the board would be if we spend the money on 2 or 3 players (assuming they want to come) and we still go down. Then we're worse off, not better off.

Personally, I think they'll maybe spend a bit in the next few days, maybe, or go with some loans, maybe. It'll guarantee nothing, and I doubt it'll work.

This club has unfortunately been pants for 3 years, nearly.

We're still paying off the loans taken out to get players to try and get Champions league - the same argument about the 70 mill TV money - spend the money on fees and wages and get it back from being in the Champs League. Except we didn't get it back. Once bitten, twice shy, perhaps?

 

Of course no one can Guarantee survival. But like I say it seems we have accepted it - we aren't even the relegation zone !!! - Silvan Distin\Curtis Davies & Liam Trotter - would have cost around £4m in fees, all realistic targets (it doesn't have to be those players) - for a nominal outlay those players would have improved our chances of staying up.

 

I am still struggling with why Fulham, Newcastle, Southampton, QPR, are making a fight to stay in the division and we are not. I don't see the point of a billionaire owner, that doesn't when help out in the clubs most desperate hour  - its almost criminal

[Nabby]

The problems started when we started paying champs league wages to average players ,Blandy points out how much Bent has cost.Lets looks at another Example Heskey and Beye

 

Heskey £3mil Fee £65k x 3.5 years £11,830 000 without NI contributions

Beye £2mil Fee £40 x 3 years  £8,112 000 without N1 Contributions

 

Total £24,942 000

 

Almost £25mil with no resale value coming back and no success on the pitch.Thats just 2 players.Now off the pitch PF seems to have improved things but on the pitch it has continued 

the purchasing and wages given to players has continued to show no direction or long term plan.I can see why we need to cut but this is a problem created by RL and PF through lack of knowledge and inability to ask or receive help.Only last season Given at 35 is given £60k a week on a 5 year deal !!A season long loan deal for a player with a long history of long term injuries who plays no more than a couple of hours for us before inevitably getting injured leaving us paying his wages for entire season !

 

As an example of a plan look at Swansea in time RL been at club , 4th Divisions side multiple promotions multiple managers but a long term plan that see's them now in a cup final and a established PL club.Not only have we lost ground on established clubs we have been caught and over taken by teams like Swansea.Every manager Inc MON has been a drain on resources that no one at board level took accountability for.The process of recruiting managers and even more so them leaving at a cost of millions has been nothing short of massive incompetence.Over the times on here and H&V on the General threads ,he was challenged about the clubs long term plan and we were treated like kids with a condescending attitude of don't worry we know what we are doing..they didn't.

 

I understand what we are trying to do but the plan will no doubt relegate us.I don't think lessons have been learned really and I have no confidence Lerner or Faulkner can turn club around any more than I have confidence in Lambert to get results on the pitch.In short term I think there is going to be alot of hurt for us fans and I just don't have much hope of things getting better mid term either.

[Dodgyknees]

Can they? Such as who?

Tottenham have always reinvested well.

[smetrov]

The problems started when we started paying champs league wages to average players ,Blandy points out how much Bent has cost.Lets looks at another Example Heskey and Beye

 

Heskey £3mil Fee £65k x 3.5 years £11,830 000 without NI contributions

Beye £2mil Fee £40 x 3 years  £8,112 000 without N1 Contributions

 

Total £24,942 000

 

Almost £25mil with no resale value coming back and no success on the pitch.Thats just 2 players.Now off the pitch PF seems to have improved things but on the pitch it has continued 

the purchasing and wages given to players has continued to show no direction or long term plan.I can see why we need to cut but this is a problem created by RL and PF through lack of knowledge and inability to ask or receive help.Only last season Given at 35 is given £60k a week on a 5 year deal !!A season long loan deal for a player with a long history of long term injuries who plays no more than a couple of hours for us before inevitably getting injured leaving us paying his wages for entire season !

 

As an example of a plan look at Swansea in time RL been at club , 4th Divisions side multiple promotions multiple managers but a long term plan that see's them now in a cup final and a established PL club.Not only have we lost ground on established clubs we have been caught and over taken by teams like Swansea.Every manager Inc MON has been a drain on resources that no one at board level took accountability for.The process of recruiting managers and even more so them leaving at a cost of millions has been nothing short of massive incompetence.Over the times on here and H&V on the General threads ,he was challenged about the clubs long term plan and we were treated like kids with a condescending attitude of don't worry we know what we are doing..they didn't.

 

I understand what we are trying to do but the plan will no doubt relegate us.I don't think lessons have been learned really and I have no confidence Lerner or Faulkner can turn club around any more than I have confidence in Lambert to get results on the pitch.In short term I think there is going to be alot of hurt for us fans and I just don't have much hope of things getting better mid term either.

 

Yes - but youre taking a couple of players isolation to fit an arguement.

 

We also doubled our money on young, downing, Milner, got £5M for Cahil, £2m for Stephen Davis - that lot covers the wages of the two players you mention. I know you could throw in Curtis Davis, Stephen ireland - my point is you have shown losses on two players - Ive shown some where we have made a profit.

 

Whilst we continue to be paralyzed by the talk of wages - we will never progress. A decent premier league footballer earns between £40 - £75k - build that in as fixed cost and take it from there - its not a problem for stoke city, Newcastle, Fulham, Why should it be a problem for Aston Villa ?

[maqroll]

But wouldn't £70m TV money help put us on an even keel ? - The parachute payment is only £20m - so the club is trying to get  on an even keel - by opting out of £50m a year..................as they say 'Good luck with that' 

 

This is what baffles me too. You'd think that that gigantic carrot that's dangling there would be enough motivation for him to spend a little more than he'd like to on xfer fees/wages.