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economic situation is dire


ianrobo1
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the debate I believe is whether you, tony

well awol and I can debate this over cocktails in Muscat on Sunday (I'll warn the wife to bring a book with her )

I'll rejoin this thread on my return ..I've a feeling it will still be going in the same circle :-)

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the debate I believe is whether you, tony

well awol and I can debate this over cocktails in Muscat on Sunday (I'll warn the wife to bring a book with her )

I'll rejoin this thread on my return ..I've a feeling it will still be going in the same circle :-)

Looking forward to it, but really, mines a beer you big gay..

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Looking forward to it, but really, mines a beer you big gay..

oh own goal from awol .... I shall have to post your face-book note where you specifically mentioned cocktails ..of course my silence can be bought ...for a few cocktails .. i mean beers .. beers dam it ..grrr manly wrestle etc etc

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the debate I believe is whether you, tony

well awol and I can debate this over cocktails in Muscat on Sunday (I'll warn the wife to bring a book with her )

I'll rejoin this thread on my return ..I've a feeling it will still be going in the same circle :-)

it will go in a circle because you don;t give your point of view, I can only guess (and that is agaist site rules and riles some) at what you may think

I am not asking for detailed solutions but a broad brush approach and a general statement of belief

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I've answered many times Ian .. btw somehow tonight you managed to watch manhunter ,Red Riding and post on VT all at the same time ... I think I may know why you could have missed it :-)

you've a few days until I'm back , maybe have a re-read through the 90 pages :-)

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unique situation, never seen before no tried and trusted methods to do this

1930 calling...

What we need is a good ol' world war...

Actually, this came close to happening in the early 70s (at least in the US): a 20-year bull market ended, there was a rash of major bankruptcies (e.g. Penn Central). 10 years of stagflation kept things from getting too too bad...

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Thousands of jobs at risk as Debenhams buys Principles

Debenhams has agreed to buy the brand and stock of collapsed clothing retailer Principles in a move that signals the chain's 90 stores will now close, potentially resulting in thousands of job losses.

Principles, which employs 2,500 people, was part of the Baugur-backed fashion empire Mosaic that was placed into a pre-pack administration on Monday as part of a rescue package agreed with its financial backer Kaupthing, which now controls the group.

Kaupthing then bought back four of the Mosaic brands: Karen Millen, Oasis, Warehouse and Coast leaving Principles and Shoe Studio in the hands of administrators Deloitte.

The future of Shoe Studio, which owns brands such as Pied a Terre and Bertie, was secured on Wednesday when high street rival Dune acquired the business. The move secured the jobs of 1,500 staff who man its department store concessions but its 11 stores closed.

Several bidders had thrown their hat in the ring for Principles, including co-founder Peter Davies, but it has been a race against time with Deloitte keen to secure the best possible deal for creditors. It is understood that Davies had withdrawn from the bidding process.

Principles has 91 standalone stores and nearly 300 concessions in department stores including Debenhams and House of Fraser and a staff of 2,500. It is thought Debenhams will use the stock to replenish its 150 concessions.

A statement is expected from the administrators later today.

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KING UNVEILS RADICAL PLAN TO F*CK BRITAIN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK Print E-mail

BANK of England governor Mervyn King last night unveiled his latest radical plan to take Britain and f*ck it squarely into the middle of next week.

Image

Carrying money has never been so much fun

Mr King and chancellor Alistair Darling agreed to increase the money supply after noticing how Britain was still not quite similar enough to Germany in 1932, or Zimbabwe this morning.

Mr King said: "Once we've laid the groundwork for hyper-inflation everything else should fall into place including the emergence of a strong, insane dictator, a nice new motorway network and our eventual annihilation."

Later today the government will release details of a scheme where people can hand in their wallets and purses in exchange for a shiny, new wheelbarrow to carry their money around in.

Across the country retailers are expected to soon begin pricing goods in wheelbarrows instead of pounds and pence. Newsagent WH Smith confirmed it will charge three and a half wheelbarrows for a can of Diet Fanta and a packet of Quavers.

Meanwhile economists are at odds over the new policy with some claiming it is pronounced 'quan-ti-ta-tive' while others have opted for the shorter, lazier 'quan-ta-tive'.

Dr Tom Booker, from Reading University, said: "It's the 'easing' bit that fascinates me. It makes it sound as if you're lowering yourself gently into a warm, soothing bath when in actual fact it's more like jumping head first into a swimming pool filled with spiders and glass."

He added: "What I'm particularly looking forward to is taking some news footage from this year and showing it in black and white alongside some film from Germany in the early Thirites to see if anyone can spot the difference.

"It'll be an amusing little game we can play when we're not murdering each other for a sausage roll."

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unique situation, never seen before no tried and trusted methods to do this

1930 calling...

What we need is a good ol' world war...

Actually, this came close to happening in the early 70s (at least in the US): a 20-year bull market ended, there was a rash of major bankruptcies (e.g. Penn Central). 10 years of stagflation kept things from getting too too bad...

major difference in the 30's we did not have a global economy, money was not moved amongst banks in different countries

war does help but hos much has been spent in Iraq eh ?

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war does help but hos much has been spent in Iraq eh ?

Ah come on, Iraq wasn't a proper war, and besides we've a ready made one in Afghan we just need to start doing it properly! :winkold:

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No link, thanks to the subscription thing, but Barron's has a nice piece on the once and future mortgage lender known as Northern Rock.

The cost of good intentions is often not obvious, but when the government is doing the intending, you can be fairly sure that the cost will be high. Northern Rock, nationalized by the United Kingdom early last year, might find this out soon enough.

Last week the bank, one of the first victims of the global financial crisis and a big mortgage lender, posted a huge pretax 2008 loss of 1.36 billion pounds ($1.9 billion). That compares to a $109 million deficit in 2007, the year its troubles surfaced. The new losses came mainly on 900 million pounds worth of loan impairments. Perhaps more importantly, NR reported that arrears of more than three months jumped to 2.9% of loans from 1.2% in June and less than 0.5% in 2007.

If there is one country with a housing situation comparable to that of the US, it is arguably the UK, where adjustable rate mortgages are standard and refinancing is common -- though more difficult now, since prices are down 15% or more -- and where house price rises were perhaps among the most dizzying among developed nations.

After a run on the bank in September 2007, Northern Rock ceased new-mortgage lending and began to wind down its loan book. It lost clients to other banks when their adjustable rate mortgages came due, but that wasn't critical for the bank, given the trouble it was in.

Despite drowning in red ink, Northern Rock is no longer retrenching but is actually vowing to increase lending into a still-bleeding housing market, even as its arrears ratio rises sharply. It said recently that it will offer 14 billion pounds of new mortgage lending over the next two years, 5 billion of which this year.

Much of that lending will come in the form of refinancing and up to 90% LTV products. That's right, 90% LTV in a market where prices have dropped 15% in 12 months and could get even weaker. By way of comparison Northern Rock's proposal for 2009 would equal an impressive 13% of 2008's national total, notes Robert Mattai, a London-based analyst with Datamonitor, an independent provider of industry research.

Why would a troubled bank where arrears are rising fast try to make more loans into the market than it took down in the first place? The pledge to offer new loans is part of a bigger plan by the British government to reduce the stress on other lenders, like Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group. Both of them, by the way, are also owned -- at 70% and 43%, respectively -- by the same government that owns Northern Rock.

"The guarantee that Northern Rock will offer new mortgages seems on the face of it a good idea, but this could lead to considerable problems for the troubled lender," Mattai notes, because a relatively large segment of its borrowers is already in arrears. The worsening economic climate will force a higher proportion of its existing borrowers into repayment difficulties, raising the 2.9% arrears figure. Taking on new borrowers will put the bank at a greater risk of financial distress, Mattai says.

Northern Rock spokesman Simon Hall responds to these concerns by noting that the new 90% LTV lending will be more prudent than the bank's past typical loans , which were at even higher LTVs. Secondly, he notes that much of the higher arrears rate is due to the shrinking loan book as well as greater delinquencies. Customers with greater than 90% LTV are 30% of the loan book, but 50% of the arrears.

That Northern Rock will be more circumspect than it was in the past is welcome, but any amount of 90% LTV mortgages seems risky in a market with double-digit declines. Another 15% decline in UK house prices will mean that most of the 90% mortgages will be underwater in short order. And to the extent that Northern Rock's new lending turns out to be uneconomic, it will likely prolong the period the housing market needs to correct itself and could be unhealthy in general for the market and its participants.

But UK mortgage approvals plunged 43% in January, not the kind of news that keeps politicians in power. Parliamentary elections are due by mid-2010. In the long run, less lending into an already strapped market is probably better for Northern Rock and, with falling house prices, its would-be borrowers.

The UK is at a crossroads. The government is trying to stimulate the mortgage market, but the economic situation makes that an increasingly risky strategy.

Barron's is, of course, a part of Rupert's empire...

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