snowychap Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 11 hours ago, Brumerican said: Just know that you don't need to spend much or even have many winners to do well. This is a 5p stake (£3.10) total and it's one of many similar bets that all got me massive returns for peanuts.. Absolutely right. 50p e/w trixie had me dreaming for a while: Quote Boom! You have won £90.00 Trixie (x8) Each Way W 17th Mar CHELTENHAM 14:10 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 7f 213y - Each Way 8. Third Wind 20/1 E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 7 Places W 17th Mar CHELTENHAM 16:50 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 0f 179y - Each Way 2. Love Envoi 7/1 E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 5 Places L 17th Mar CHELTENHAM 17:30 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 2f 0y - Each Way 23. Powerstown Park 40/1 E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 5 Places Stake: £4.00 Returns: £90.00 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bielesibub Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 8 hours ago, Brumerican said: The ones I have made bold are the one's I''ll be using a bit more than others if that helps you narrow it down a bit as backing everything isn't optimal. As for the 4.50 race I think the one to focus on from the bottom 4 horses is Pink Legend who has flirted around 50/1 . Venetia Williams is having a fantastic week with monster priced horses. Wish I could bottle up how you do this, it could really help my 'Horse Pick-ler' Chrome extension, it's definitely biased toward favourites? (you've done better with the value bets) BTW, Paddy Power are paying 7 places instead of 4 on the 14:10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Just now, bielesibub said: Wish I could bottle up how you do this, it could really help my 'Horse Pick-ler' Chrome extension, it's definitely biased toward favourites? (you've done better with the value bets) BTW, Paddy Power are paying 7 places instead of 4 on the 14:10. Sky Bet are offering 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bielesibub Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, Brumerican said: Sky Bet are offering 8. Nailed that one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 (edited) 15 minutes ago, bielesibub said: Wish I could bottle up how you do this, Nothing special particularly . There are people on here who know far more about racing than me . The way I do Cheltenham is based purely on maths and it isn't really viable for the other 51 weeks of the year . Cheltenham is different because there are not many "bad" horses there and really good horses are available at silly prices you'd never get on that horse usually. For example in the 4.50 today they are paying 4 places in a 8 horse race . Vienna Court was 5th fave yesterday at 12/1 and Pink Legend was 50/1 . The last time they met Pink Legend battered Vienna Court so the price just doesn't "make sense" to me . Pink Legend has shortened up to 18/1 now so the overnight bettors have probably seen that "value" . There's nothing "special" about the top 4 horses in that race and all it takes is one bad jump from any of them . The entire festival is rammed with undervalued/overpriced horses especially in handicaps , which in theory are designed so that every horse regardless of level will finish at the line at the same time . The trick is to find horses with dodgy weights / first time handicappers etc. Then throw in the fact that the crowd affects horses , the fences are God killers and the weather all play a part For 4 days a year it's better to go big AFAIAC. Edited March 18, 2022 by Brumerican 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomav84 Posted March 18, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brumerican said: Nothing special particularly . There are people on here who know far more about racing than me . The way I do Cheltenham is based purely on maths and it isn't really viable for the other 51 weeks of the year . Cheltenham is different because there are not many "bad" horses there and really good horses are available at silly prices you'd never get on that horse usually. For example in the 4.50 today they are paying 8 places in a 8 horse race . Vienna Court was 5th fave yesterday at 12/1 and Pink Legend was 50/1 . The last time they met Pink Legend battered Vienna Court so the price just doesn't "make sense" to me . Pink Legend has shortened up to 18/1 now so the overnight bettors have probably seen that "value" The entire festival is rammed with undervalued/overpriced horses especially in handicaps , which in theory are designed so that every horse regardless of level will finish at the line at the same time . The trick is to find horses with dodgy weights / first time handicappers etc. Then throw in the fact that the crowd affects horses , the fences are God killers and the weather all play a part can still get 33/1 for pink legend. buzzing that i got 66/1 early doors yesterday though! still think vienna court might have the better of her though...shes my main bet of the day. i havent watched the race replay of the one you mentioned but it was only 1.25l winning margin not to mention pink legend being 4lb up from when they met and vienna court 2lb down so there's a 6lb swing in vienna courrt's favour for this interesting race that one. i've not really seen the 2 at the top of the market really mentioned by anyone with most seeing value with bigger prices...i've actually got a fun e/w on maid o malley at 150/1 too for this who's had a great season on soft ground, albeit against much lesser opposition 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Just now, tomav84 said: can still get 33/1 for pink legend. buzzing that i got 66/1 early doors yesterday though! still think vienna court might have the better of her though...shes my main bet of the day. i havent watched the race replay of the one you mentioned but it was only 1.25l winning margin not to mention pink legend being 4lb up from when they met and vienna court 2lb down so there's a 6lb swing in vienna courrt's favour for this interesting race that one. i've not really seen the 2 at the top of the market really mentioned by anyone with most seeing value with bigger prices...i've actually got a fun e/w on maid o malley at 150/1 too for this who's had a great season on soft ground, albeit against much lesser opposition Yup. O'Malley has managed to eek 50p E/W out of me too. I have Vauban just once in a 7 fold for 50p E/W and it's the lowest price I have on any selection today but it's the horse I have the least faith in . I think a lot of people will be disappointed in that first race . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomav84 Posted March 18, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, Brumerican said: Yup. O'Malley has managed to eek 50p E/W out of me too. I have Vauban just once in a 7 fold for 50p E/W and it's the lowest price I have on any selection today but it's the horse I have the least faith in . I think a lot of people will be disappointed in that first race . yeah i like knight salute that you mentioned in the first. pied piper fits the bill in terms of stats/trends of previous winners and only narrowly beat vauban in december so could be a good battle between those two. paul townend had a bit of a whinge about that result by the looks of it so will be looking to avenge that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Al Boum Photo and Tornado Flyer have shortened whilst Chantry House has gone up. Chantry House it is then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomav84 Posted March 18, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 18, 2022 anyone ever been to cheltenham festival? love a day at the races but theres nothing worse than when you pick a busy day and cant get a pint! looks absolutely rammed and can only imagine what the queues are like for a beer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Just now, tomav84 said: anyone ever been to cheltenham festival? love a day at the races but theres nothing worse than when you pick a busy day and cant get a pint! looks absolutely rammed and can only imagine what the queues are like for a beer! Yup. Went to the one where Best Mate won it's last race and I barely remember a thing other than the Villa colours. Once was enough . It's far better watching in bed with a brew and a spliff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Boring but safe start I guess . Accas unscathed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcarpet Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, tomav84 said: anyone ever been to cheltenham festival? love a day at the races but theres nothing worse than when you pick a busy day and cant get a pint! looks absolutely rammed and can only imagine what the queues are like for a beer! Being local I regularly go to the new years day meet and this year I also did the november meet (used to be the paddy power weekend). Its busy enough for me on those days let alone during gold cup week. While its got better in recent years, you used to have to decide if you are going for a pint, watching the race or going for a wee, you couldn't do more than one between races! I assume its still like that during gold cup week. Its also £7 a pint, so not a cheap day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCU Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 £7 for a pint is mental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 17 hours ago, Brumerican said: Gold Cup Day 1.30 Vauban 2/1 goes in the accas . £10 on Fil Dor 11/2 in the hope of getting £65 or my tenner back ( Money back for 2nd -5th ) Within 72 hours apparently . 3 effing days ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Fairplay it just got credited back . It's going straight on Chantry House . My one big single bet of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claretman Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, MCU said: £7 for a pint is mental. My lad is there, just messaged me it's £7 for a pint of Guinness, £6.90 for a pint of Carling and apparently £14 for a G&T. All in plastic glasses and no doubting tasting of wee. I'll watch from home thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bielesibub Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, bcarpet said: Being local I regularly go to the new years day meet and this year I also did the november meet (used to be the paddy power weekend). Its busy enough for me on those days let alone during gold cup week. While its got better in recent years, you used to have to decide if you are going for a pint, watching the race or going for a wee, you couldn't do more than one between races! I assume its still like that during gold cup week. Its also £7 a pint, so not a cheap day! Option in bold every minute of the day for me! Lets go to the races, oops sorry queues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 22 minutes ago, claretman said: My lad is there, just messaged me it's £7 for a pint of Guinness, £6.90 for a pint of Carling and apparently £14 for a G&T. All in plastic glasses and no doubting tasting of wee. I'll watch from home thanks. Yeah a screw that. I’ve been to the races two or three times and didn’t enjoy it at all. I’d be into doing the whole hospitality thing but suiting up just to stand shoulder to shoulder with thousands of people and not having enough time between races to buy a ridiculously overpriced pint? Nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 18 hours ago, Brumerican said: 2.50 5 places . Shantreuse 11/1 Bardensdown Lad 18/1 Ballygriffin Cottage 28/1 Green Book 66/1 Tidy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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