Glasgee East by-election

[snowychap]

The latest of this silly season's by-elections has kicked off, so what do the great electorate of VT think will happen in this one?

The scenarios on which to vote are:

a) it's a safe labour seat, it's a shoo-in, the nice MSP lady will cruise home.

the nationalists have 'em on the run, they'll capitalise on Labour's unpopularity in the UK and the SNP's popularity in Scotland.

c) the Lib Dems will surprise everyone with a run along the rails, taking the seat by the skin of their teeth.

d) it doesn't really matter about who is returned, the size of the labour majority will be the story of the election.

[The_Rev]

"Glesgay"

[PauloBarnesi]

In the name of democracy I ve added the other options, as I am sure the Solidarity candidate will prevail

[Jon]

"Salmond rides high"?

should that not be "Salmond leaps to victory"? or "Salmond battles against the current"?

[snowychap]

"Salmond rides high"?

should that not be "Salmond leaps to victory"? or "Salmond battles against the current"?

I'm not quite sure where the 'rides high' bit came from. It was late, &c...

I think I prefer your 'Salmond leaps ..'. :winkold:

PB, you champion of democracy and balance, you.

[PauloBarnesi]

Sadly this poll does not allow multiple voting as sometimes practised in various parts of the country, or some dodgy mail votes to boot.

[Awol]

Now Labour finally have a candidate it's maybe worth looking at why the by-election has been called..

Labour MP David Marshall step down due to 'ill health', or did he?

Labour MP spent £500,000 of taxpayers' money running office from home staffed by wife

A Labour MP used almost £500,000 of taxpayers' money over six years to help run an office from his home which was staffed by his wife.

David Marshall, 67, who has quit to spark the Glasgow East by-election on July 24, used the expenses to pay for a constituency office and staff.

But Mr Marshall's office was in his semi-detached Glasgow home and he employed his wife T ina as his secretary. It is also believed he paid his daughter Christina to work from his home from the same pool of money.

A Commons spokesman said MPs can use their home as an office but only claim for additional costs like 'extra phone lines, heating and lighting'.

From 2001-2007, Mr Marshall claimed £91,000 incidental expenses provision, which is used to pay for constituency offices, plus £400,000 for staff and £11,000 for their travel expenses.

He listed only one member of staff on the Commons register - Christina Marshall. It was unclear if this was his wife Tina or daughter Christina.

Continued on link.

But what about his 'replacement'? Why did he quit before he'd begun?

ELEVEN GLASGOW LABOUR COUNCILLORS UNDER INVESTIGATION

Eleven Labour Glasgow City Councillors, including Councillor George Ryan, who last night suddenly pulled out of the contest to represent Labour in the crucial Glasgow East by-election, were reported to the Standards on 18 June 2008 in connection with a controversial land deal in the city centre.

Crikey, more dodgy goings on..So they settle on an MSP to sit in the Scottish Parliament and Westminster. Funny this job share thing, Des Browne is Minister for Defence and Scotland and if he can manage that.. oh yeah, he can't.

I believe Labour's majority is about 14,000 and if they lose that to the SNP Brown can't last much longer. I don't like the nationalist parties but it would be fun if they won this seat.

[tonyh29]

Labour are so unpopular now I doubt they could win an election if they had the only candidate running

Would imagine the SNP will win this one ... though in Labours favour Brown is out the country so can't ruin their chances by polling with their candidate ....

[PauloBarnesi]

Will Labour be playing D Ream’s Things can only get better?

[bickster]

Thing is, not being in the land of fine haggis and whisky I'm not sure about Labour's popularity north of the Hadrian Line. Are Scottish Labour as unpopular as their English counterparts? Not something I've kept tabs on to be honest

[dundeevilla]

SNP will win this one, heralding the end for Big Goardun.

[snowychap]

As it is a poll, usual rules apply but:

Labour set for victory in Glasgow East by-election, poll shows

Labour is on course to win this month’s crucial by-election in Glasgow East, according to an opinion poll.

The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph puts the party on 47 per cent of the vote with its nearest challenger, the Scottish National Party (SNP), on 33 per cent.

Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent and the Conservatives on seven per cent.

The poll, the first conducted within the rock-solid Labour seat, is a big boost for Gordon Brown.

Labour’s support has slumped since the 2005 general election when it won Glasgow East with a massive 61 per cent of the total vote, reflecting the string of political crises which have beset the Prime Minister, his government, and the Scottish Labour Party.

Nevertheless, the fact that Labour appears on course for victory will be a major relief for Mr Brown.

Party sources said they remained worried about levels of turnout in the seat and recognised a "lot of work still needs to be done" ahead of polling day on 24 July.

SNP leader Alex Salmond, the Scottish First Minister, said the poll showed the party had made huge inroads into Labour's 45 point lead at the general election in 2005.

"Twenty years ago an opinion poll published three days before the Govan by-election put the SNP 20 per cent behind," he said.

"With 10 days to go the SNP are closing the gap in Glasgow East and are on course for the political earthquake that will send shockwaves around Westminster."

SNP candidate John Mason added: "We have the people and the momentum to win this by-election.

"The SNP will continue to work hard today and every day to show we are on the side of people in Glasgow East.

"Voters in Glasgow East understand that it is only a vote for the SNP on 24th July that will send a message to Westminster and bring real change in the failing policies of this Labour government."

Scotland Office Minister David Cairns said there was "strong support" for Labour, but he insisted the party was taking nothing for granted.

He said: "Alex Salmond took his ministerial Mondeo from Edinburgh to tell the people of Glasgow East there would be an earthquake. It looks like they might just send him homeward to think again.

"But unlike Alex Salmond, we're not going to be smug about one poll.

"More and more people are telling us that Margaret is a real fighter who will stand up for them, but not a single vote has been cast yet.

"There is still very strong support for Labour in the East End, but we aren't taking anything for granted."

[drat01]

I believe Labour's majority is about 14,000 and if they lose that to the SNP Brown can't last much longer. I don't like the nationalist parties but it would be fun if they won this seat.

and you said you didn't subscribe to the idea of "anyone but Labour"!

ooops sort of pissed on that Jon

[Awol]

I believe Labour's majority is about 14,000 and if they lose that to the SNP Brown can't last much longer. I don't like the nationalist parties but it would be fun if they won this seat.

and you said you didn't subscribe to the idea of "anyone but Labour"!

ooops sort of pissed on that Jon

Round and round we go...

I don't subscribe to anyone but Labour, take the BNP or Monster Raving Loonies as cases in point. However that doesn't mean I don't despise the lying shitbags.

[drat01]

Sorry Jon but it's not round and round, your post clearly states anyone but Labour, which sort of defeats any argument you had against that accusation.

Interesting that the Tory vote in Scotland remains so low, why is that? Is it because they are a South East centric party only catering for that part of the country? Probably not, but the fact that they fail to make any serious in roads into Wales and Scotland does make you wonder what their policies (what few we have seen) are saying.

The SNP are an interesting bunch. Play the right-wing nationalistic card at all times but are never seen as racist in the same way as others. Does this mean that nationalism for one part of the UK is deemed to be OK/ Support for the SNP is surely support for the breakup of the UK.

[ianrobo1]

well the thig is in Scotland they are left and socialist in nature and the SNP if anything are left of labour thats probably why ...

also it is a reason why some of Scottish labour want a refrendum because it is likely to be lost and once that happens they suspect a large number of people will go back to labour

[snowychap]

Sorry Jon but it's not round and round, your post clearly states anyone but Labour, which sort of defeats any argument you had against that accusation.

Jon's post actually says that it would be fun if the SNP won, it doesn't say anyone but labour. Unless, of course, by backing the non-labour horse in a two horse race is anyone but labour.

I inferred from Jon's post that an SNP vote would be fun because of the interesting time it would make for Gordo and because he thinks that it would hasten Gordo's demise as PM.

The SNP are an interesting bunch. Play the right-wing nationalistic card at all times but are never seen as racist in the same way as others. Does this mean that nationalism for one part of the UK is deemed to be OK/ Support for the SNP is surely support for the breakup of the UK.

I'm not so sure that, though they are nationalists, they are 'right-wing'. Do you believe that Scottish nationalists are racist?

Perhaps the break up of the Union is the inevitable conclusion of devolution?

EDIT: Ian's post above beat me to it on the point about the leanings of the SNP.

[peterms]

"Glesgay"

No, you're wrong.

I've been listening to the BBC, and it's clearly "Glahhrrs-geau".

[peterms]

Thing is, not being in the land of fine haggis and whisky I'm not sure about Labour's popularity north of the Hadrian Line. Are Scottish Labour as unpopular as their English counterparts? Not something I've kept tabs on to be honest

Not massively popular at the moment. Labour here tends to be more Old Labour - but not the good aspect of that, ie the principles, more the reliance on patronage that characterises places which have been a one-party state for too long. That is mixed with a New Labour topcoat, and it doesn't feel like a marriage made in heaven.

Politics here is probably more tribal than in large parts of England, and places like Glasgow East are among the most tribal. So it would be quite a feat to lose, whoever you put up.

I think they might lose. If they do, it will be low turnout of Labour supporters that does it. I don't think they are likely to be massively unhappy with the previous MP or the candidate, but the combination of no strong reason to support other than traditional loyalty and a few grievances might make quite a few people stay at home.

On the other hand, the Nats will be able to get their core vote out, and stand a good chance of picking up quite a few protest voters and floaters. Not the kind of place they could hold at a general election, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them win this time, no matter what the polls say.

[snowychap]

Will the proxmity of this constituency to Gordo's make any difference to the labour party vote (either negative or positive) - or is it actually miles away (apologies for my lack of geographical knowledge of Scotland's constituencies )?

And will the jobs contingent upon the recent aircraft carrier contracts have any effect?

I am not one for 'averages' as being appropriate indicators but I was rather amazed at the life expectancy of those in the different wards within Glasgow East. Some are around 63 and others as low as 57? :shock: