Glasgee East by-election

[snowychap]

I am not aligned to any party and as such I pointed out that it was funny that labour supporters were now starting to claim that retaining this seat was some sort of success (or at the very least a 'non-story').

I don't have to be aligned to a party to point out that it is a slightly bizarre state of affairs when this happens.

'FFS' all you want, Ian.

Is there a way that I could have put my point of view to show it is obviously apolitical or are there influences of others at hand in your post?

[ianrobo1]

ell your whole point was wrong, show me in my post where I said it was a success ?

just like in Henley and Davis's seat just an expected result

thought Tony said

Labour are so unpopular now I doubt they could win an election if they had the only candidate running

Would imagine the SNP will win this one ... though in Labours favour Brown is out the country so can't ruin their chances by polling with their candidate ....

[snowychap]

What does Tony's post have to do with me?

Are you confusing us?

So, you agree that just holding on to this seat ought not to be viewed as a success by the government?

[ianrobo1]

nope just as winning Henley was not a success for the tories ...

if they couldnt win this they were in serious trouble, TBH 15% poll lead is greater than I thought it would be

[snowychap]

So, just to clarify, if the labour party happen not to win, then they will be in serious trouble?

Bearing in mind that they won the only election in this seat and the two previous elections in predecessor seats by a majority of between 42% and 48%, where ought they to draw the line?

I.e.:

will a 5% victory be shite?

will a 10% victory be shite?

will a 15% victory be shite?

will a 20% victory be shite?

[dundeevilla]

Glasgee???????

It's Glesgae!

Labour look pretty certain to win from what I hear on the news up here today. Miles oot in front in the polls.

[snowychap]

Glasgee???????

It's Glesgae!

Being a Sassenach, my knowledge of Scottish misspelling is not comprehensive. I do apologise.

[Gringo]

less than 10% margin here is bad for labour and more so for gordo.

If they lost, which looks unlikely, gordo would be gone in september.

Better than 15% I reckon gordo comes out looking ok in the eyes of his MPs whilst on holiday. A bad taste going into a long break would leave a sour taste and plenty of time for shenanigans and political manouvering. Broon doesn't need that at the moment.

[ianrobo1]

agree Gringo 10% is the marker

[tonyh29]

it's the spin afterwards that is going to be interesting

if they get 10 % that is still an 8 % swing ..the others will claim it shows labour has lost it .. labour will claim it shows they are listening to the people and that the people trust them to get things right for the country ....

It's Scotland that carries Labour , if the Scots turn against them to the tune of 8% swing at every seat then ..well we all know it anyway

[ianrobo1]

an 8% swing in mid term and with all the shit flying away is not that great ...

you knwo tony that very rarely by election swings are replicated in general elections, 1997 being an odd example

[snowychap]

Now Labour finally have a candidate it's maybe worth looking at why the by-election has been called..

Labour MP David Marshall step down due to 'ill health', or did he?

Tonight's Newsnight would appear to question the details of Mr Marshall's resignation and allowances.

Mr Marshall made a statement to Newsnight denying any impropriety - the nuLab candidate seemed as though she had no wish to revisit the history of the seat and its representative.

[Awol]

BBC saying it's a close run thing with a result in three hours if no recounts are required.

I still think Labour will win but it could be interesting....

[snowychap]

They were saying something about it going down to a few hundred votes either way..

[snowychap]

Looking like an SNP victory.

If it's not then their candidate has made himself look like a right spanner.

[tonyh29]

good to see this years winner of Miss Scotland is also doing her bit to over see the vote counting

[tonyh29]

well the latest poll has a labour lead of 15% nothing really to see, labour will lose a few votes but nothing serious as a defeat

remind me not to back any horses you ever tip :-)

Astaggering 24% swing to SNP as Labours 25th safest seat in the UK waves goodbye

I'm off to start a poll on who we think will take over as PM from Brown ..

has a country ever had 2 unelected PM's in the space of just over a year before ??

[snowychap]

Turnout of 42% and the SNP win with a majority of 365.

I am assuming that this was below the 'marker' spoken of earlier?

[PauloBarnesi]

It would seem that everyone wants to give Labour a good kicking? Keir Hardie must be turning in his grave.

[peterms]

It would seem that everyone wants to give Labour a good kicking? Keir Hardie must be turning in his grave.

Keir Hardie would be turning in his grave if he knew what the LP has become, never mind the poll result.