Crewe and Nantwich byelection. Who will win?

[snowychap]

This week sees the people of Crewe and Nantwich going to the polls.

It is a two horse race between Labour and Conservative (but I have included the Lib Dem candidate in the poll in the interests of balance :winkold:).

So who do people think will win?

I would say that the result is very important for the respective parties (and leaders). Regardless of how much spin either party puts on a bad result (i.e. not winning), they will know that it won't be good.

As an aside, let us hope that the behaviour on the campaign trail in this constituency is not an indication of what to expect nationally when Gordon (or the next leader) calls a general election. An interesting read is this article in the Grauniad by Andrew Rawnsley. He is not very complimentary about either Labour and Conservative and here is an excerpt:

Another indicator of its importance is the shrillness of much of the campaigning. The Tories have treated the byelection as a trial of Gordon Brown. David Cameron has exploited the uproar over the 10p tax band without ever saying what he would have done. The Prime Minister has been heard to tell intimates that this is how the Conservatives would like to be allowed to fight the next general election. They don't want it to be a choice between policies and values, Gordon Brown has told colleagues: 'They want to have a referendum on the government.'

The Tories have been mocking Labour for selecting the late Gwyneth Dunwoody's daughter as their candidate. Mr Cameron likes to chortle that he has heard of a hereditary monarchy, but hereditary MPs are something new. Let us agree that the Labour leadership, which liked the independent-spirited and cussed Mrs Dunwoody so much that they tried to sack her as a committee chair, has shamelessly traded on her name to try to save the seat. But excuse me while I laugh to hear criticism of political dynasties from the Tories. Mr Cameron's frontbench contains at least one MP whose father was also an MP.

The Labour campaign is worse. It is, in fact, a disgrace. What was once regarded as the cleverest electioneering operation in the democratic world has descended into a crude parody of the silliest and nastiest aspects of political campaigning. Labour activists dressed in toppers and tails stalk the Tory candidate to attack him as a 'toff' because his family built up a successful chain of shoe repairers. It's not Edward Timpson who is made to look like the nob by these puerile games.

When not playing the class card in a juvenile way, Labour has been playing the race card in a poisonous way. The BNP is not standing in the seat, but you could be forgiven for thinking that you were looking at their stuff when you read some of Labour's campaign material. One Labour leaflet invites a vote against the Tories on the grounds that they 'oppose making foreign nationals carry an ID card'. The Tories actually oppose making anyone carry an ID card. Labour should be ashamed of stooping to xenophobia to try to cling on to the seat. They are getting this down and dirty because so much is at stake here, especially for the Prime Minister.

[The_Rev]

DIESEL!

[Richard]

I am told by people who have been canvassing that this will be the first Conservative gain from labour in a by-election for over 25 years. Apparently a Conservative victory is almost certain.

[drat01]

I wouldn't be surprised if it continues at the general election, because there are sufficient Neanderthals at the top of the Labour Party that will insist on this strategy

Eric Pickles

Conservative MP

Ain't they the "nice" party? What next another comment about Autism?

[snowychap]

Ain't they the "nice" party? What next another comment about Autism?

Is that a justification for the kind of campaign being run in Crewe?

[drat01]

Snowy - play by the sword etc etc

[mykeyb]

It will be very interesting and certainly a pointer to the way it might go when a general election is called.

If as people are predicting Labour lose I wonder where that will leave Gordon Brown within his party as there is still time for them to "shuffle the deck chairs" before the big one.

[drat01]

This is a funny one because Crewe has a Tory council - who have caused various issues by the sounds of it - but the previous MP got elected a lot on the back of who she was and what she stood for. This is not a Labour or a Tory heartland as such with probably more inclined to be right of centre according to the political "boffins"

[Richard]

It will be very interesting and certainly a pointer to the way it might go when a general election is called.

If as people are predicting Labour lose I wonder where that will leave Gordon Brown within his party as there is still time for them to "shuffle the deck chairs" before the big one.

I would suggest that there is no one in the upper echelons of the former socialist party who would want to be leader currently

[Gringo]

This is a funny one because Crewe has a Tory council - who have caused various issues by the sounds of it - but the previous MP got elected a lot on the back of who she was and what she stood for. This is not a Labour or a Tory heartland as such with probably more inclined to be right of centre according to the political "boffins"

Crewe & Nantwich council

1973 LAB;

1976 NOC; 1979 NOC; 1980 NOC; 1982 NOC; 1983 NOC; 1984 NOC; 1986 NOC; 1987 NOC; 1988 NOC;

1990 LAB; 1991 LAB; 1992 LAB; 1994 LAB; 1995 LAB; 1996 LAB; 1998 LAB; 1999 LAB; 2000 LAB;

2002 NOC; 2003 NOC

The parliamentary seat in Crewe has been held by labour since 1945.

[drat01]

Gringo - so all you have done is confirmed what the bloke said. During the 90's the Labour party was the party of choice for many in the middle. Since the boundary changes to include many rural areas around the constituency the makeup is now more traditionally centre-right - maybe if you don;t agree you could mention it to the bod on Radio 4?

[Richard]

This is a funny one because Crewe has a Tory council - who have caused various issues by the sounds of it - but the previous MP got elected a lot on the back of who she was and what she stood for. This is not a Labour or a Tory heartland as such with probably more inclined to be right of centre according to the political "boffins"

Crewe & Nantwich council

1973 LAB;

1976 NOC; 1979 NOC; 1980 NOC; 1982 NOC; 1983 NOC; 1984 NOC; 1986 NOC; 1987 NOC; 1988 NOC;

1990 LAB; 1991 LAB; 1992 LAB; 1994 LAB; 1995 LAB; 1996 LAB; 1998 LAB; 1999 LAB; 2000 LAB;

2002 NOC; 2003 NOC

The parliamentary seat in Crewe has been held by labour since 1945.

You've saved me a job as when I had an hour or so I was going to do that research

[The_Rev]

It doesnt mean much though. I live under Nuneaton & Bedworth council. Its a borough of a similar size to Crewe & Nantwich (120k people here, 115k people there) and our town council was Labour council from its formation in 1974 until last month when the Tories won control for the first time ever. A bit of the Labour hate has faded now the 10p tax thing isnt on the front page of the newspapers. But if a Labour stronghold such as Nuneaton can go blue, so can Crewe.

[tonyh29]

This is not a Labour heartland as such

did I read this correctly , despite being proved that for 35 years it wasn't a Tory council , you still couldn't bring yourself to print the words "i was wrong "

:-)

go on ... the internet won't self implode if you print those words .......

[drat01]

Go on Tony admit you were wrong :-)

Let's see what happens

"Crewe and Nantwich Borough Council is made up of 56 Councillors representing 27 Wards with approximately one-third elected three years in four. Following the last Borough Council elections held on 1st May 2008 the table below shows the current political composition.

Conservative 28

Labour 17

Liberal Democrat 6

Nantwich Independent 3

Independent 2

TOTAL 56"

[PauloBarnesi]

DIESEL!

ELECTRIC

[Richard]

Excellent so if the Conservatives win half the seats at the next General Election it will be a Tory Government.

[snowychap]

Snowy - play by the sword etc etc

So, both sides being dickish is fine, then?

Bizarre.

[snowychap]

Go on Tony admit you were wrong :-)

Let's see what happens

"Crewe and Nantwich Borough Council is made up of 56 Councillors representing 27 Wards with approximately one-third elected three years in four. Following the last Borough Council elections held on 1st May 2008 the table below shows the current political composition.

Conservative 28

Labour 17

Liberal Democrat 6

Nantwich Independent 3

Independent 2

TOTAL 56"

So that'll be NOC, then?

[drat01]

Snowy - play by the sword etc etc

So, both sides being dickish is fine, then?

Bizarre.

Who exactly has said that then? Bizarre? Yes your assumption is