Crewe and Nantwich byelection. Who will win?

[snowychap]

Snowy - So it was slack on Mr Timpson's part eh? Ah well good to see

No.

I think we can accept that the following:

It's an initiative from the local Conservative Council ..

referred to the initiative from the local Conservative council that is the local county council which is Conservative-led.

Can we accept now that Crewe and Nantwich borough council is not a Tory council?

[drat01]

.ed.

Can we accept now that Crewe and Nantwich borough council is not a Tory council?

You can accept what you like Snowy, it's a free and fair country. Me and many others see it as a Tory council

[snowychap]

Me and many others see it as a Tory council

Many others and I (:winkold:)...

It seems that your 'many others' are manifestly silent. Until this multitude stands up and takes a bow then I'll stick to the evidence at hand, thanks.

[Richard]

I blame inflation.

When I was at school 17+3+6+2 = 28 it was not<28.

Or should I be looking at education, education, education

In practice you see under those circumstances no party controls the council.

[mykeyb]

Politics is seemingly no longer about debating issues it's more about trying to "diss" the other side

Seems to apply to political debate on VT too - well for some posters

[Richard]

I think the interesting thing will be the turn out

[bickster]

Does it matter? A politician will get elected, they will then go to parliament and don their sheep costume, it then really doesn't matter if its branded blue, red or amber. They just end up going Baaa at the right time anyway

[PauloBarnesi]

What does all of this mean for the football club? or the Railway works?

[Richard]

Does it matter? A politician will get elected, they will then go to parliament and don their sheep costume, it then really doesn't matter if its branded blue, red or amber. They just end up going Baaa at the right time anyway

Using your anology, the result of this could go a long way to pointing to which ram will be running the herd in a couple of years time

[bickster]

Does it matter? A politician will get elected, they will then go to parliament and don their sheep costume, it then really doesn't matter if its branded blue, red or amber. They just end up going Baaa at the right time anyway

Using your anology, the result of this could go a long way to pointing to which ram will be running the herd in a couple of years time

Sorry Richard but ..........It matters not, whichever ram is running the herd he'll just shag all the sheep and shit on the grass like they always do

[Richard]

Yes I know you feel that way. All I can tell you is that not all politicians are like that, but thats a discussion we have had previously and neither of us will move from.

[R.I.C.O.]

The tide is turning against Broon now, he's starting to appear as lame and grey as John Major in the death throws of the 1992-1997 administration. If the tories win this (and I reckon they will, unfortunately) Broon has to go, someone like John McDonnell is the only saviour of the Labour Party.

Broon will go down as the worst Labour leader ever. Slimy Dave will win the next election at the rate we are going, and if you think spin and PR was bad under Blair, you ain't seen nothing yet!

[Gringo]

I think the interesting thing will be the turn out

In what way - don't by-elections always have much higher turn outs than general elections?

[Richard]

I dont think thats always the case Gringo. I'd be interested to see if this is a particularly large turnout, I think it may be

[snowychap]

I think the interesting thing will be the turn out

In what way - don't by-elections always have much higher turn outs than general elections?

I'd have thought that too but having a look at the by election turnouts during the 2001-2005 parliament, they weren't.

source - House of Commons research paper 05/34

Average by-election turnout during the 2001-05 Parliament was 37.9%. This was 16.9 percentage points lower than the average turnout in the same constituencies in the 2001 general election. The lowest by-election turnout was in recorded Ogmore (35.2%) and the highest was in Hartlepool (45.8%).

[bickster]

Turnouts for By-elections depend on how much media interest there is in the contest. They are usually high if there is a great deal of interest like this one, where there is actually a contest. They are low where there is no contest an no media interest

[Richard]

The amount of canvassing that gets done also has an affect on turn out. I am told that a near record turnout is expected for this by-election

[bickster]

And the amount of canvassing is directly proportional to the media atention / importance of the contest

[Richard]

Not always the case Gareth. A lot of canvassing is done in constituency's where parties wish to update their pledge base, to get a handle on fpotential membership, how their support is going or to update records where central office for Conservative or Labour has issued new systems or updates to old systems. It can also be done by a candidate in a no win community who wishes to show his commitment and enthusiasm for the job to get a more winnable seat next time round. Seriously a lot gets done in those circumstances.

What it tends to do is push up the vote a bit for the sitting MP as it pords his supporters to come out and vote for him conversley!

[peterms]

Not always the case Gareth...

I agree. There are different reasons for canvassing, and canvassing directly affects turnout.

Of course, if you want to canvass, it helps not to have alienated your core support, or else there won't be the foot soldiers to do the work - just the phone calls from paid staff at a party office somewhere...