Generic Virus Thread

[Genie]

Just now, sidcow said:

All you need to do is to get the R number below 1.  Even now it's only just 1.1 to 1.3 they think.  Below 1 and it's shrinking.  

When you get to 60% unlikely to catch it and 60% less likely to find someone who can catch it, that's going to lead to a rapid reduction. 

60% is the current worse case for Oxford (as I said earlier the Pfizer bod has hinted their latest data is higher than that) 

True, but you have to consider than alongside the vaccine rollout will be easing of restrictions. The vaccine has to offset the inevitable rise in transmission and get it under 1. 

I’m sure it’ll be fine anyway, worst case and vaccinated people were still catching it in significant numbers it could be modified or we’d switch to one of the others.

[sidcow]

8 minutes ago, Genie said:

True, but you have to consider than alongside the vaccine rollout will be easing of restrictions. The vaccine has to offset the inevitable rise in transmission and get it under 1. 

I’m sure it’ll be fine anyway, worst case and vaccinated people were still catching it in significant numbers it could be modified or we’d switch to one of the others.

Doesn't matter too much.  As long as you're over 50% effectiveness it's still going to shrink. 

The other thing to bear in mind is that the main lockdown factors are hospital admissions and deaths.  Let's say you are 50% less likely to pass it on, what is the chance of finding that person AND them being an at risk person.  

When you get to the Pfizer levels of protection over 90% you are going to see a very rapid reduction of cases. 

Frankly the single biggest threat and one you should worry about a lot more (and is worrying me a lot) is the number of people who are saying they won't have the vaccine.  That is the real danger here. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by sidcow

[darrenm]

I've seen from completely unsubstantiated sources that the Oxford vaccine will start rolling out on 4th Jan and we have 4m doses ready to go. That'll make a big difference quite quickly (depending on how quickly doses can be administered)

[Genie]

The vaccination programme so far has been quite impressive tbh. Last Saturday I think we’d vaccinated 500,000 people already (initial dose). 500 locations will be online shortly to administer them. 

[bickster]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

True, but you have to consider than alongside the vaccine rollout will be easing of restrictions. The vaccine has to offset the inevitable rise in transmission and get it under 1. 

I’m sure it’ll be fine anyway, worst case and vaccinated people were still catching it in significant numbers it could be modified or we’d switch to one of the others.

If it calms you down any, this new "OMG its a wild mutant" variant of the virus that is "OMG easier to catch", appears to be less deadly. That is common in viruses, if a mutation is more transmissable, it's very often (like most of the time) less deadly. The more deadly mutations tend to die out really quickly (because it killed the people it infected and can infect no more) the more transmissable tend to be weaker

[Genie]

3 hours ago, bickster said:

If it calms you down any, this new "OMG its a wild mutant" variant of the virus that is "OMG easier to catch", appears to be less deadly. That is common in viruses, if a mutation is more transmissable, it's very often (like most of the time) less deadly. The more deadly mutations tend to die out really quickly (because it killed the people it infected and can infect no more) the more transmissable tend to be weaker

It’s not a worry or concern, just a general musing. 

[HanoiVillan]

This Twitter thread is quite sobering:

To summarise for those who don't want to click through: overall cases are rising sharply, and while they are rising fastest in the SE they are rising everywhere; hospital admissions are rising fast, particularly in London but really everywhere except the SW; overall hospital occupancy is now at same level as April peak; tier system is not controlling the virus; new paper from LSHTM & Imperial suggests that Tier 4 combined with open schools and universities will not keep r below 1.

Hard to see us avoiding another national lockdown soon IMO.

[chrisp65]

We’re supposedly in a form of lockdown here. Stay home, only essential travel, non essential shops closed.

The town was absolutely rammed with **** tourists today.

The overflow car parks were full and people were abandoning their cars on roads with double yellows and closest to me, using the pavements and a turning circle at the end of the road as an impromptu extra overflow car park.

Absolute selfish pricks.

 

[Kiwivillan]

They say that familiarity breeds contempt and I feel that a little bit here in NZ and not blowing trumpet as live on a moat but our response has been awesome. No community cases since August I think but had 2nd outbreak and went into full 2nd lockdown. I'm still app scanning everywhere I go but I think uptake is worse than 20% because people have got complacent. Our left leaning government won in a massive land slide for the first time that wasn't a coalition government needed since they changed system in the early 90s because people didn't buy into the opposition open the borders/close the borders/open the borders schizophrenic narrative

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kiwivillan

[chrisp65]

10 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said:

They say that familiarity breeds contempt and I feel that a little bit here in NZ and not blowing trumpet as live on a moat but our response has been awesome. No community cases since August I think but had 2nd outbreak and went into full 2nd lockdown. I'm still app scanning everywhere I go but I think uptake is worse than 20% because people have got complacent. Our left leaning government won in a massive land slide for the first time that wasn't a coalition government needed since they changed system in the early 90s because people didn't buy into the opposition open the borders/close the borders/open the borders schizophrenic narrative

Do you have people there that want all the old and the vulnerable and people that would probably die anyway put on one island, so the rest of you, the valuable important ones, can get on with life normally on the other island?

That would be the plan here if all the tory commentators had their way.

[Kiwivillan]

9 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Do you have people there that want all the old and the vulnerable and people that would probably die anyway put on one island, so the rest of you, the valuable important ones, can get on with life normally on the other island?

That would be the plan here if all the tory commentators had their way.

Yeah. I'm on Facebook groups with these detestable human beings.

But generally Kiwis massively bought into the government's hard lockdown and daily televised briefings. The health general guy, can't remember official title, became overnight celebrity. The right wing opposition party lost so so badly because of their incoherent messaging 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kiwivillan

[darrenm]

22 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said:

They say that familiarity breeds contempt and I feel that a little bit here in NZ and not blowing trumpet as live on a moat but our response has been awesome. No community cases since August I think but had 2nd outbreak and went into full 2nd lockdown. I'm still app scanning everywhere I go but I think uptake is worse than 20% because people have got complacent. Our left leaning government won in a massive land slide for the first time that wasn't a coalition government needed since they changed system in the early 90s because people didn't buy into the opposition open the borders/close the borders/open the borders schizophrenic narrative

But how are you coping with the destruction of the country by a left leaning government? Have the gulags been built yet? Has Putin been given his overlord seat in parliament? Have you had a run on the dollar? Have all your businesses moved to Australia?

That's apparently what was going to happen here according to the papers. I'm so glad the country took their advice and voted the Tories in instead.

[Kiwivillan]

14 minutes ago, darrenm said:

But how are you coping with the destruction of the country by a left leaning government? Have the gulags been built yet? Has Putin been given his overlord seat in parliament? Have you had a run on the dollar? Have all your businesses moved to Australia?

That's apparently what was going to happen here according to the papers. I'm so glad the country took their advice and voted the Tories in instead.

Obviously businesses have closed but large factor in that was ridiculous rent gouging by commercial landlords, some apparently have been very reasonable. There's been a lot of... "bunker" spirit as in support your local businesses and promoting local travel. Country was built on living isolated from rest of the world. My main concern is we already had bad economic inequality with Maori/Polynesian community most effected and there's growing homeless issue that existed before Covid made worse

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kiwivillan

[darrenm]

Tory MP feeling brave for retweeting the 'fact' that only 377 people below 60 without 'underlying health conditions' have died from COVID-19 

She should feel brave because it's completely false.

The underlying health conditions are basically anything. So it's incredible that as many as 377 under 60s who have never been to see their GP have died

Dangerous, incompetent, deranged idiots

 

[bickster]

2 hours ago, darrenm said:

Tory MP feeling brave for retweeting Toby Young bollocks

Anyone should know better. He's an absolute bell

[Davkaus]

The only thing I've ever agreed with Toby Young about is that his own death would be acceptable collateral damage if we followed a herd immunity strategy. 

[HanoiVillan]

An incredible thing about Toby Young is that he wrote a book called 'How To Lose Friends & Alienate People', made a fortune off it, and has then spent the last decade or so complaining that people are mean to him about his contrarian bullshit.

[Davkaus]

15 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

An incredible thing about Toby Young is that he wrote a book called 'How To Lose Friends & Alienate People', made a fortune off it, and has then spent the last decade or so complaining that people are mean to him about his contrarian bullshit.

Was step 1 "call yourself the Toadmeister"? Regardless of anything else he's ever said or done, that's enough for me to want him to be hit by a bus.

[Genie]

41,385 new infections today (which is a record) and schools, universities, colleges etc have been closed for at least 10 days.

Pubs and clubs closed in majority of the country too.

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Genie

[villakram]

It's almost like masks are meaningless and lockdowns somewhat less so, and that a winter respiratory virus is acting all like a winter respiratory virus.

Oh, the humanity!