Bomb attack on Dortmund team bus

[TrentVilla]

 

2 hours ago, Awol said:

Whoever is responsible, the use of IED's within Europe is not good.

*speculation* 

It must have been detonated by an observer using a remote or command wire to target and hit a specific (moving?) vehicle. That implies a level of competence in planning, sophistication and experience. 

That was one of my initial thoughts as well, although the attack ultimately failed it was potentially far more sophisticated than the attacks across Europe recently.

The use of such remote devices is very different to the more simplistic attacks that have been occurring not least as it enables those responsible to survive and carry out further attacks.

I guess we will know more about those responsible (or their motives at least) when more information is released about the letter.

[Chindie]

It should be said that statistically suicide bombs are more devastating than IED style ones. So whilst it's more sophisticated, it's less 'effective'.

[TrentVilla]

3 minutes ago, Chindie said:

It should be said that statistically suicide bombs are more devastating than IED style ones. So whilst it's more sophisticated, it's less 'effective'.

That is probably true although not sure where those statistics come from. 

A suicide bomber though has one go at it, someone planting IED's can in theory keep planting them until they are captured.

 

[TrentVilla]

 

Looking at the pictures, I think it could well have been a pipe bomb.

[OutByEaster?]

The BBC are now reporting that the letter references islam and the attacks in Syria.

 

[Chindie]

18 minutes ago, TrentVilla said:

That is probably true although not sure where those statistics come from. 

A suicide bomber though has one go at it, someone planting IED's can in theory keep planting them until they are captured.

 

Dying to Win by Robert Pape, iirc. One of the conclusions the book makes is, from analysis of hundreds of terrorist incidents, suicide bombers tend to have higher body counts than any other type of attack, because it's harder to defend against and can hit targets with less protection with more precision. The analysis also shows groups that use this tactic are more effective at achieving their wider goals.

Bombers that don't use suicide tactics also tend to be fairly easy to catch as the device leaves evidence everywhere. The Unabomber is an exception, because he was very smart in how he did it, removing identifying marks from everything in the construction of the bombs and making his own parts - wooden boxes etc and being a truly lone wolf.

[Chindie]

I must admit something feels off about this. The letter, the target, the style... It's not what we'd expect. Why target the team bus when there's dozens of easier and more effective targets? Leave it in a public area, whatever. It doesn't quite seem right.

[TrentVilla]

25 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Dying to Win by Robert Pape, iirc. One of the conclusions the book makes is, from analysis of hundreds of terrorist incidents, suicide bombers tend to have higher body counts than any other type of attack, because it's harder to defend against and can hit targets with less protection with more precision. The analysis also shows groups that use this tactic are more effective at achieving their wider goals.

Bombers that don't use suicide tactics also tend to be fairly easy to catch as the device leaves evidence everywhere. The Unabomber is an exception, because he was very smart in how he did it, removing identifying marks from everything in the construction of the bombs and making his own parts - wooden boxes etc and being a truly lone wolf.

Thanks re the ref, one for the reading list.

 

[TrentVilla]

20 minutes ago, Chindie said:

I must admit something feels off about this. The letter, the target, the style... It's not what we'd expect. Why target the team bus when there's dozens of easier and more effective targets? Leave it in a public area, whatever. It doesn't quite seem right.

It's not, but then shouldn't it be? By that I mean that we are probably wrong to assume uniformity in these things or to expect things to follow a pattern even if one has been established.

The current threat is very different to say that of the IRA with coded warnings etc.

Many of these attacks will be carried out by people with little or indeed no guidance entirely devolved from any kind of organisation.

Surely therefore they will by nature be different because they are almost entirely the action of an individual(s) in isolation.

 

[Chindie]

1 hour ago, TrentVilla said:

Thanks re the ref, one for the reading list.

 

It is the best part of a decade since I read it so you'll excuse any error . Might also have been one of the other books I was reading at the time...

1 hour ago, TrentVilla said:

It's not, but then shouldn't it be? By that I mean that we are probably wrong to assume uniformity in these things or to expect things to follow a pattern even if one has been established.

The current threat is very different to say that of the IRA with coded warnings etc.

Many of these attacks will be carried out by people with little or indeed no guidance entirely devolved from any kind of organisation.

Surely therefore they will by nature be different because they are almost entirely the action of an individual(s) in isolation.

 

True it's brand Islamism, draw prior into the cause without actually recruiting. But even then it's just so different. The choice of target, the type of attack, the letter? It's not what Islamist attacks of any sort in Europe have gone for, and even where IEDs etc are used in the Middle East it's unlike this (they pointedly attack state figures/military/police and the public). I don't think you attack Dortmund by accident. If you want people watching and you want people scared, you hit vulnerabilities - public places, transport, etc. A football team bus outside town? The bomb itself, which is more of a Western style terrorist action (of all types). And the letter is very weird.

If I'm investigating this, my thoughts are immediately either this is someone coming at this from a very different angle, or the letter is a red herring.

[coda]

14 minutes ago, Chindie said:

It is the best part of a decade since I read it so you'll excuse any error . Might also have been one of the other books I was reading at the time...

True it's brand Islamism, draw prior into the cause without actually recruiting. But even then it's just so different. The choice of target, the type of attack, the letter? It's not what Islamist attacks of any sort in Europe have gone for, and even where IEDs etc are used in the Middle East it's unlike this (they pointedly attack state figures/military/police and the public). I don't think you attack Dortmund by accident. If you want people watching and you want people scared, you hit vulnerabilities - public places, transport, etc. A football team bus outside town? The bomb itself, which is more of a Western style terrorist action (of all types). And the letter is very weird.

If I'm investigating this, my thoughts are immediately either this is someone coming at this from a very different angle, or the letter is a red herring.

Some sort of Baader Meinhof type business? (I know **** all about that group)

[NurembergVillan]

There has been a second letter published on an anti-fascism website claiming they targeted the team because of the club's supposed tolerance for right wing fans and fan groups.

There's a lot to unravel here, that's for sure.

[Keyblade]

Crazy how little attention this is getting, this is huge.

[snowychap]

49 minutes ago, coda said:

Some sort of Baader Meinhof type business?

You've gone and done it there. I'll keep seeing stuff about them everywhere now.

[Chindie]

50 minutes ago, coda said:

Some sort of Baader Meinhof type business? (I know **** all about that group)

Perhaps.

Baader-Meinhof (Red Army Faction) mostly targeted establishment figures though - government officials, police, high ranking business people. And considering how prevalent it was for 30 years, leftist terrorist activity has diminished massively.

[Chindie]

15 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

Crazy how little attention this is getting, this is huge.

Nobody knows what it is. There's no narrative and it wasn't spectacular enough. So everyone is keeping their powder dry.

[TrentVilla]

Two suspects, one of which is in custody. Seemingly with "Islamic links" so we may soon have a narrative which is sadly familiar even if the method of attack wasn't.

[blandy]

 

[NurembergVillan]

8 minutes ago, blandy said:

 

Looking forward to Sean Spicer telling the world about the dangers of European soccer teams who have converted to Islam and started to suicide bomb their own buses.

[blandy]

1 minute ago, NurembergVillan said:

Looking forward to Sean Spicer telling the world ...

I think Ken Livingstone has got his gig, now.