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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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Just now, villaglint said:

Hypothetical question - if someone manages to get a bullet in Putins head does the world become a better or worse place? 

Depends on who fills the vacuum 

Nut the odds are on worse

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2 minutes ago, bickster said:

Depends on who fills the vacuum 

What about a world police/Iraqi style interim government that will allow democracy to flourish like a beautiful flower. Worked really well last time! 
 

According to big Tony anyway. 

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2 minutes ago, villaglint said:

What about a world police/Iraqi style interim government that will allow democracy to flourish like a beautiful flower. Worked really well last time! 
 

According to big Tony anyway. 

That would involve an invasion and occupation of Russia. That isn't going to happen

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1 minute ago, villaglint said:

Hypothetical question - if someone manages to get a bullet in Putins head does the world become a better or worse place? 

It’s flip of a coin, but I think everyone with the benefit of hindsight would not attempt the invasion. A clean slate gives the next person an opportunity to make a dramatic change of policy.

Persevering, or doubling down on the special operation is only going to make Russia’s plight worse in the short, medium and long terms.

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7 minutes ago, villaglint said:

Hypothetical question - if someone manages to get a bullet in Putins head does the world become a better or worse place? 

It would be quite hard to become a worse place,with one less rocket polisher.

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3 minutes ago, PussEKatt said:

It would be quite hard to become a worse place,with one less rocket polisher.

No, it can be much much worse.

There are only a few ways Putin goes;

1. Palace Coup - Putin is far more intelligent than anyone around him - most likely a worse outcome

2. Military Coup - Putin is also far more intelligent than any of his high ranking generals - most likely a worse outcome

3. Civil War - would require the assistance of the Military but there is a chance of a better leader but there is also a greater chance of much worse

4. Putin dies of natural causes - see Palace Coup

That's the short term outlook as I see it

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I think it’s hard to gauge what those around Putin are really like. It’s like what we have here with Brexit, most of the Brexiteer politicians know it’s always been a stupid idea but they align with boss and act like frothing mentalists to boost their careers.

With Putin out of the way and less pressure to appear to be fanatical about the West we might see people emerge who are more willing to do right for the majority of the Russian people. It won’t happen overnight though.

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11 minutes ago, Genie said:

I think most likely would be the next guy would pull the troops out but keep talking a good fight and making all kinds of threats and talking about spending big on weapons.

l

 

Seems to me that Russians are like mushrooms,kept in the dark and fed on shit.

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1 hour ago, bickster said:

Depends on who fills the vacuum 

But the odds are on worse

Nah, whoever fills the vacuum isn't going to have Putin's decades of total power to rely on, or public image. They are going to be constantly looking over their shoulder and trying to establish their image and powerbase over the Russian people. Doing all of that while trying to fight a losing war in Ukraine would be impossible. It's only Putin's image and total control that is holding Russia together, once he's gone it would be no surprise to see it all fall apart but it definitely wouldn't be worse from a western point of view.

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3 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

This story gets better. 

The helicopter was takes with delivering spare parts Russia warplanes.  It arrived with a full cargo.  

 

And very specialised detailed maps of Russian positions

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1 hour ago, villa89 said:

Nah, whoever fills the vacuum isn't going to have Putin's decades of total power to rely on, or public image. They are going to be constantly looking over their shoulder and trying to establish their image and powerbase over the Russian people. Doing all of that while trying to fight a losing war in Ukraine would be impossible. It's only Putin's image and total control that is holding Russia together, once he's gone it would be no surprise to see it all fall apart but it definitely wouldn't be worse from a western point of view.

I was taking a world view not a Ukrainian specific view

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18 minutes ago, bickster said:

I was taking a world view 

Me too. No Putin means Russia goes back to focusing on domestic issues, it hugely reduces their ability to influence the rest of the world IMO.

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We should learn a lesson from WW2.  The Allies made a decision NOT to eliminate Hitler.  They knew his weaknesses and how to exploit them. 

We've had Putin for 20 years.  We know him.  We know where he hides. We have spies in his organisation.  We know where he is from the people around him.   

If he were replaced we would have to infiltrate the inner circle of the replacement. That takes time and effort.  

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4 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

We should learn a lesson from WW2.  The Allies made a decision NOT to eliminate Hitler.  They knew his weaknesses and how to exploit them. 

We've had Putin for 20 years.  We know him.  We know where he hides. We have spies in his organisation.  We know where he is from the people around him.   

If he were replaced we would have to infiltrate the inner circle of the replacement. That takes time and effort.  

Probably less effort than fighting a war though 

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