Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Mandy Lifeboats]

47 minutes ago, Genie said:

30 killed at a petrol station explosion in Dagestan. Is this the work of Ukraine or an actual stray cigarette?

It looks accidental.  

Reports are that a fire in a car repair workshop spread to the neighbouring petrol station.  

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

30 killed at a petrol station explosion in Dagestan. Is this the work of Ukraine or an actual stray cigarette?

Dagestanian RAF troops have reportedly also fought Kadyrov's tiktokers yesterday, leaving 30 wounded\killed. Dagestan is 100% one of the regions that would break off if Russia were to descend into civil war.

 

Edited August 15, 2023 by magnkarl

[tonyh29]

Russia's interest rate just hiked 3.55  ..to 12 % now  , after the rouble plunged further in value 

unlikely to help / save their economy in the short , or long term but you have to wonder how long the can sustain this pain 

Elections in March 2024 , is there a chance someone can run without falling through a window and beat Putin ? 

[Mr_Dogg]

25 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Russia's interest rate just hiked 3.55  ..to 12 % now  , after the rouble plunged further in value 

unlikely to help / save their economy in the short , or long term but you have to wonder how long the can sustain this pain 

Elections in March 2024 , is there a chance someone can run without falling through a window and beat Putin ? 

Of course not!

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, tonyh29 said:

Elections in March 2024 , is there a chance someone can run without falling through a window and beat Putin ? 

No.  They may be called Elections but they are not.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

4 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

Russia's interest rate just hiked 3.55  ..to 12 % now  , after the rouble plunged further in value 

unlikely to help / save their economy in the short , or long term but you have to wonder how long the can sustain this pain 

Tue funny thing is..........

The ruble has only recovered to the value it was 7 days ago.  

[Mandy Lifeboats]

7 days ago it was 124 Rubles to £1

It briefly recovered to 121 to £1

 It's now back to 124.  

One year ago it was 62 to £1

 

 

Edited August 15, 2023 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added details

[Genie]

4 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

Russia's interest rate just hiked 3.55  ..to 12 % now  , after the rouble plunged further in value 

unlikely to help / save their economy in the short , or long term but you have to wonder how long the can sustain this pain 

Elections in March 2024 , is there a chance someone can run without falling through a window and beat Putin ? 

Bit like Fifa president, nobody seems to want the prestigious, highly paid job for some reason.

[magnkarl]

There's some fairly nasty footage from yesterday of Ukraine taking out Russian training compounds with HIMARS loaded with tungsten rounds. At this rate Russian conscripts are getting hammered before they even get to the front.

Urozhaine has been liberated, and even Russian commentators are expecting the next couple of villages to fall in short order. I'm wondering if Russia is expending most of its fighting power before UAF even get to the second defensive line around Tokmak. Russia's losses seem to mainly happen when they're running away from settlements they've lost and when trying to counter attack against said villages.

Meanwhile the 82nd air assault brigade has been committed close to Robotyne after an 8 week rotation, this is by far the best equipped UAF brigade. Among other things it's got the Challengers, Leo2, CV90's, Stryker/Marder and Archer systems. Hopefully the Challenger comes out well here and gives Ukraine some much needed forward progress.

Here's how the stryker, in example, fares against the Lancet. It kept on moving and did its job without seemingly being destroyed. As per usual the Russians show lancet strikes but not the aftermath. Telegram is littered with this sort of footage of Leo2's being hit by lancets with no after pics even if Russia has a drone view of the explosion.

 

Edited August 17, 2023 by magnkarl

[Genie]

Quote

Russia has placed captured Western and Ukrainian weapons on display at a military expo in the Moscow region, including armoured vehicles, artillery guns, missiles, and drones. 

The annual event showcased more than 800 weapon types captured from the battlefield in Ukraine, Russian state media claimed. 

Defence Minsister Sergei Shoigu said that the war in Ukraine had “debunked many myths about the superiority of Western military standards” in a speech at the expo.

A British Husky armoured personnel carrier

 

Mastiff, an armoured infantry vehicle supplied by the US 

 

A US-made M-113 armoured personnel carrier

More on the link

[magnkarl]

Erdogan has warned Putin that he needs to stop boarding ships in the Black Sea. Last time Erdogan warned Putin and Vlad didn't listen Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet.

I hope Erdogan puts pressure on Vladimir and sends in his own military ships as convoys.

[magnkarl]

If the US wants it could send more F-15 & 16's to Ukraine than Russia has fighter aircraft left, and they wouldn't even touch their active planes.

Edited August 18, 2023 by magnkarl

[LondonLax]

59 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

If the US wants it could send more F-15 & 16's to Ukraine than Russia has fighter aircraft left, and they wouldn't even touch their active planes.

Ukraine wouldn’t have the means to operate/service them though. 

[blandy]

I suspect that "By the way, after minor repairs, they can fly again" is something of a stretch.

There will be an absolute ton of work needed on any aircraft stored by being parked in the desert for any length of time at all. Aircraft have lifed items - these range from everything from rubber (or synthetic) seals all the way through to engines. Then there's the effect of dust - everything will be coated in at least a thin layer of dust and sand, and that's really not good for moving parts. So another time consuming activity to thoroughly clean each aircraft - brakes (also lifed), tyres (lifed), cockpit instruments and controls, naca ducts, pitot tubes and probes, control surface actuators...electrical connectors

And then there's the effect on electronics in particular of the daily cycle of heating and cooling, expansion and contraction and what that does to soldered joints, cooling fans..

So yes they can be brought back to serviceable and safe condition, but it's absolutely not a minor task. You're talking months and months to get any decent number fettled and airworthy, let alone combat ready.

[magnkarl]

48 minutes ago, blandy said:

I suspect that "By the way, after minor repairs, they can fly again" is something of a stretch.

There will be an absolute ton of work needed on any aircraft stored by being parked in the desert for any length of time at all. Aircraft have lifed items - these range from everything from rubber (or synthetic) seals all the way through to engines. Then there's the effect of dust - everything will be coated in at least a thin layer of dust and sand, and that's really not good for moving parts. So another time consuming activity to thoroughly clean each aircraft - brakes (also lifed), tyres (lifed), cockpit instruments and controls, naca ducts, pitot tubes and probes, control surface actuators...electrical connectors

And then there's the effect on electronics in particular of the daily cycle of heating and cooling, expansion and contraction and what that does to soldered joints, cooling fans..

So yes they can be brought back to serviceable and safe condition, but it's absolutely not a minor task. You're talking months and months to get any decent number fettled and airworthy, let alone combat ready.

I think the idea is that the very industrious Ukrainian mechanics could do that job if they got access to the aircraft. Obviously there's probably ITAR stuff and computers inside these planes (or do they take them out?) but that shouldn't be as much of an issue now that the US has green lighted giving them away via other nations. The video obviously shows some stored outside, afaik the US also has a considerable number of retired airframes inside hangars in Texas, New Jersey etc, and compared to making totally new aircraft for Ukraine I presume restoring at least well kept ones would be a good idea.

Edited August 18, 2023 by magnkarl

[blandy]

8 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I think the idea is that the very industrious Ukrainian mechanics could do that job if they got access to the aircraft. Obviously there's probably ITAR stuff and computers inside these planes (or do they take them out?) but that shouldn't be as much of an issue now that the US has green lighted giving them away via other nations. The video obviously shows some stored outside, afaik the US also has a considerable number of retired airframes inside hangars in Texas, New Jersey etc, and compared to making totally new aircraft for Ukraine I presume restoring at least well kept ones would be a good idea.

No ITAR items will be on those aircraft if they’re either in long term storage (the a/c I mean) or remotely accessible by people. A lot of LRIs will have been removed and added to the spares pool for in-service aircraft, too.

I don’t think non trained personnel could complete recovery of the aircraft. For example, say flight control computers and actuator control units have been removed, or even just sat there in the desert on the plane, the aircraft is going to need to undergo a very thorough set of testing of the engine and flight controls. That means EGR, and full hydraulic power testing. It means LST too. So you’re talking about skilled operators and engineers to do that.

It’s all doable, but it’s not like the tweeter implies. It’s more complicated by a distance. To get the aircraft out of the desert and to Ukraine they basically need to be airworthy to even leave the desert. Then they’ve either got to be shipped to Ukraine (which means more partial dismantling and then reassembling), or they’ve got to fly there themselves. So imagine a ferry pilot being told “this plane you’re going to fly halfway round the world has been sat in the desert for 8 years, but some Ukrainians have done a spot of unskilled (on F16) maintenance. Off you trot”. Not gonna happen. It’ll take teams of people months to sort it. I’ve left loads of detail out of this, but trust me unless the aircraft have only been on the desert a short time, it’s a much bigger job than implied from the tweet.

 

LOA

International Trade in Arms Regulations

Line Replaceable item
Engine Ground Run

Low Speed Taxi

[sidcow]

3 hours ago, blandy said:

No ITAR items will be on those aircraft if they’re either in long term storage (the a/c I mean) or remotely accessible by people. A lot of LRIs will have been removed and added to the spares pool for in-service aircraft, too.

I don’t think non trained personnel could complete recovery of the aircraft. For example, say flight control computers and actuator control units have been removed, or even just sat there in the desert on the plane, the aircraft is going to need to undergo a very thorough set of testing of the engine and flight controls. That means EGR, and full hydraulic power testing. It means LST too. So you’re talking about skilled operators and engineers to do that.

It’s all doable, but it’s not like the tweeter implies. It’s more complicated by a distance. To get the aircraft out of the desert and to Ukraine they basically need to be airworthy to even leave the desert. Then they’ve either got to be shipped to Ukraine (which means more partial dismantling and then reassembling), or they’ve got to fly there themselves. So imagine a ferry pilot being told “this plane you’re going to fly halfway round the world has been sat in the desert for 8 years, but some Ukrainians have done a spot of unskilled (on F16) maintenance. Off you trot”. Not gonna happen. It’ll take teams of people months to sort it. I’ve left loads of detail out of this, but trust me unless the aircraft have only been on the desert a short time, it’s a much bigger job than implied from the tweet.

 

LOA

International Trade in Arms Regulations

Line Replaceable item
Engine Ground Run

Low Speed Taxi

Stop coming round here with your knowledge and logic.

Don't you know the world is sick of experts?

[blandy]

10 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Stop coming round here with your knowledge and logic.

Don't you know the world is sick of experts?

I've just mooneyed something and I found this. It's not quite the same, but it's analogous

Quote

The D check, sometimes known as a "heavy maintenance visit" (HMV),^[9] is by far the most comprehensive and demanding check for an airplane. This check occurs approximately every 6-10 years.^[8] It is a check that more or less takes the entire airplane apart for inspection and overhaul. Even the paint may need to be completely removed for complete inspection of the fuselage metal skin. Such a check can generally take up to 50,000 man-hours, and 2 months to complete depending on the number of technicians involved.^[10] It also requires the most space of all maintenance checks, and as such must be performed at a suitable maintenance base. The requirements and the tremendous effort involved in this maintenance check make it by far the most expensive, with total costs for a single D check in the million-dollar range.^[11]

Because of the nature and the cost of a D check, most airlines — especially those with a large fleet — have to plan D checks for their aircraft years in advance. Often, older aircraft being phased out of a particular airline's fleet are either stored or scrapped upon reaching their next D check, due to the high costs involved in comparison to the aircraft's value.^[12] On average, a commercial aircraft undergoes two or three D checks before being retired.^[13]

Manufacturers often underestimate the cost of the D check. Boeing underestimates the cost for four of its aircraft, and the expectation is that it has underestimated it for the B787-9 which in 2018 had not been in service for long enough to have been put through a D check.^[14]

All amounts in millions of United States dollars, as of 2018.^[14]

That's for civil aircraft and is the equivalent of a military Major scheduled service. There will be bits that don't apply, and others that they don't do that military aircraft do need doing. Ejection seats, weapons systems and associated paraphernalia etc obviously not part of civil aircraft, for example.

Recently stored aircraft might get away with a reduced set of work (Minor servicing). Still thousands of manhours.

[peterw]

On 11/08/2023 at 10:40, bannedfromHandV said:

I don’t see that as escalation, I’m sure the Russians do.

It’s always been a response to Russia’s actions, would NATO be flooding Ukraine with weapons and intelligence if Russia hadn’t invaded? 

You could of course just as easily argue this the other way, would Russia have invaded if NATO hadn't have put bases on their borders (as they see it) and threatening their security? 

 

There needs to be a long-term solution which to be is at UN level that would see how we can prevent going forward, as this needs to just play out for now as the two sides have entrenched positions that have gone on for too long for either to walk away. 

 

i think there needs to be a reform of the UNSC and in these types of particular cases (under the guise of R2P)  a form of arbitration is needed. This is separate to the criminal prosecution seen through the ICC, and the ideal of justice for those citizens that have been terrorized through the form of aggression perpetrated. The arbitration body needs to be comprised of not only local actors that may understand the situation that resulted in the aggression commencing, but also covered by wider geopolitical groups. In that regard it would act as a body that could feed a decision into the current P5, that would rubberstamp its conclusion.

The arbitration body would therefore have ten permanent seats and two non-permanent to be made of the local ‘involved’ actors. The ten permanent members would be split equally across global groupings. 2 from West Europe/North America, 2 from Latin America, 2 from Eastern Europe (covering the central Asian republics), 2 from Asia, and 2 from Africa. The two countries would be voted in by their individual regions and serve for a stipulated period.

The proposals of the arbitration bloc would be debated in the General Assembly for approval, and any suggested amendments sent back to the arbitration group. An approval would need 2/3 in favour and a resolution would immediately be passed. If that resolution included the use of force then it would need to go to the P5. At that stage the P5 would debate the resolution and the use of a veto would be permissible; however, the vetoing state would have to explain why the veto has been used, and at that point it would go back to the arbitration group. The arbitration group would have to work on the resolution with the veto having been expressed, and an updated proposal then brought to the General Assembly, and then P5. This process would be followed a statuted number of times and should there not be an agreed resolution then the final decision goes back to the General Assembly where a 75% approval of those voting yes or no, would be needed to pass the final resolution which would by-pass the veto from the P5. If not reached, then that approval rate would drop to 65 or 70% needed to pass a resolution. If still not passed the resolution is defeated.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

35 minutes ago, peterw said:

You could of course just as easily argue this the other way, would Russia have invaded if NATO hadn't have put bases on their borders (as they see it) and threatening their security? 

 

Yes. They would.   This war was never about NATO expansion.    

Switzerland is completely surrounded by NATO.  Are they threatened? 

Many countries have foreign bases on their borders.  Russia is the largest country in the world. Its inevitable that they are surrounded by NATO.