Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[LondonLax]

This is a useful thread assessing the plant

 

 

 

 

[Genie]

 

[magnkarl]

If Russia does something like that we’ve likely got Polish and Czech boots on the ground in 24 hours. I don’t see it personally, but I also didn’t think Russia would blow the dam.

They’re just as bad as nazi Germany so I guess we can’t put it past them.

Ukraine has wanted a no fly zone over their territory for a year now, a nuclear provocation will likely mean f-35s whopping Russian ass back to Russia in no time.

Edited July 4, 2023 by magnkarl

[Genie]

Can the West/Nato use this risk (if credible) get some jets in there? 

Basically protecting Nato members from a potential Nuclear disaster.

Russia will say “look we told you Nato were going to attack us” but who cares. Tell them they have x hours to leave before air support is deployed. 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Genie

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

Can the West/Nato use this risk (if credible) get some jets in there? 

Basically protecting Nato members from a potential Nuclear disaster.

Russia will say “look we told you Nato we’re going to attack us” but who cares. Tell them they have x hours to leave before air support is deployed. 

Nuclear fallout is covered in article 5, so it’s not unlikely. Poland in particular has a number of f35s ready for this exact scenario together with other JEF forces.

It will likely be the old Soviet republics that will respond, with America being not so keen. Stoltenberg was re-elected today, and he’s categorically said time and time again that NATO aren’t fooling around.

Turkey is another big NATO nation that will likely react due to the proximity to ZNPP.  Russia has struggled with MiG29s, add reapers, eagles and NATO fighters into the picture and Russia shouldn’t stand a theoretical chance. Turkey’s anti ship stuff will take out Russia’s little presence in Crimea in no time. Ukraine caused chaos with some 15 TB2s, Turkey is rumoured to have over 200.

Edited July 4, 2023 by magnkarl

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

In regard to the ZNPP, i really wouldnt put it past the Russians. Scorched earth is their favourite tactic. ‘If I cant have her, no-one can’ vibes. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by BleedClaretAndBlue

[desensitized43]

10 hours ago, Genie said:

Can the West/Nato use this risk (if credible) get some jets in there? 

Basically protecting Nato members from a potential Nuclear disaster.

Russia will say “look we told you Nato were going to attack us” but who cares. Tell them they have x hours to leave before air support is deployed. 

I'm not sure adding more jets at the minute solves the issue.

I think the only thing that will prevent this is if NATO makes it very clear that it will hold the Russians responsible for any incident at the plant and that we'd consider it an act of war for them to deliberately leak radiation in Europe.

[bickster]

Just now, desensitized43 said:

I'm not sure adding more jets at the minute solves the issue.

I think the only thing that will prevent this is if NATO makes it very clear that it will hold the Russians responsible for any incident at the plant and that we'd consider it an act of war for them to deliberately leak radiation in Europe.

That has already been stated quite a few times

[desensitized43]

Just now, bickster said:

That has already been stated quite a few times

It has but it should be said again and again in the strongest possible terms.

The Russians control the plant and any attempts to take it back by force are incredibly risky. The only solution is for the Russians to leave voluntarily or agree to some kind of DMZ around it which isn't going to happen in the short term as they know Ukraine and pretty much everyone else in Europe is crapping themselves at the thought of what might happen there.

 

[sidcow]

7 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

I'm not sure adding more jets at the minute solves the issue.

I think the only thing that will prevent this is if NATO makes it very clear that it will hold the Russians responsible for any incident at the plant and that we'd consider it an act of war for them to deliberately leak radiation in Europe.

The jets point was suggesting what would happen subsequent to Russia blowing it up. 

[desensitized43]

2 minutes ago, sidcow said:

The jets point was suggesting what would happen subsequent to Russia blowing it up. 

If Russia blows it up it should and probably would result in much more than just a few extra jets to Ukraine.

[Genie]

I actually suggested pre-empting the sabotage on the nuclear plant with a major escalation from Nato IF they have rock solid intelligence that Russia are going to blow it up.

Russia will say “told you so” but if it stops a nuclear disaster then it’s a price worth paying.

 

[LondonLax]

8 minutes ago, Genie said:

I actually suggested pre-empting the sabotage on the nuclear plant with a major escalation from Nato IF they have rock solid intelligence that Russia are going to blow it up.

Russia will say “told you so” but if it stops a nuclear disaster then it’s a price worth paying.

 

The intelligence is going to need to be rock solid. 

The obvious retort already coming from the Russian supporters is that Ukraine would be willing to damage the plant if it meant NATO would finally get involved for real and end this war. 

[desensitized43]

32 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

The intelligence is going to need to be rock solid. 

The obvious retort already coming from the Russian supporters is that Ukraine would be willing to damage the plant if it meant NATO would finally get involved for real and end this war. 

Making your own country uninhabitable for 10,000 years in exchange for NATO intervention...seems likely 

[LondonLax]

Just now, desensitized43 said:

Making your own country uninhabitable for 10,000 years in exchange for NATO intervention...seems likely 

Yes it seems a stretch.

The scenario being discussed though would see radiation limited to the local area currently held by Russia, the plant is not another Chernobyl, as discussed in that thread above. 

 

[blandy]

1 hour ago, desensitized43 said:

I think the only thing that will prevent this is if NATO makes it very clear that it will hold the Russians responsible for any incident at the plant and that we'd consider it an act of war for them to deliberately leak radiation in Europe.

 

1 hour ago, desensitized43 said:

it should be said again and again in the strongest possible terms

NATO will hold the Russians responsible for any incident at the plant and consider it an act of war for them to deliberately leak radiation in Europe.

That should do it.

[Genie]

3 minutes ago, blandy said:

 

NATO will hold the Russians responsible for any incident at the plant and consider it an act of war for them to deliberately leak radiation in Europe.

That should do it.

In an ideal world they don’t wait until after the event. But we’re not in an ideal world.

Edited July 5, 2023 by Genie

[LondonLax]

1 minute ago, blandy said:

 

NATO will hold the Russians responsible for any incident at the plant and consider it an act of war for them to deliberately leak radiation in Europe.

That should do it.

Yes, as discussed such a statement gives the pretext for Ukraine to hit the plant themselves and bring NATO into the war. The narrative is already being put out that Ukraine’s counter offensive is not going to plan and they need NATO intervention to end this one and for all.

I expect there is a lot of monitoring going on on that plant so hopefully any Russian attack can be shown definitively. 

[Mozzavfc]

11 hours ago, magnkarl said:

Nuclear fallout is covered in article 5, so it’s not unlikely. Poland in particular has a number of f35s ready for this exact scenario together with other JEF forces.

It will likely be the old Soviet republics that will respond, with America being not so keen. Stoltenberg was re-elected today, and he’s categorically said time and time again that NATO aren’t fooling around.

Turkey is another big NATO nation that will likely react due to the proximity to ZNPP.  Russia has struggled with MiG29s, add reapers, eagles and NATO fighters into the picture and Russia shouldn’t stand a theoretical chance. Turkey’s anti ship stuff will take out Russia’s little presence in Crimea in no time. Ukraine caused chaos with some 15 TB2s, Turkey is rumoured to have over 200.

This is why I can't see it happening. Russia have done everything they can to keep NATO out the war. They know if NATO enter it's game over 

[avfc1982am]

1 hour ago, Mozzavfc said:

This is why I can't see it happening. Russia have done everything they can to keep NATO out the war. They know if NATO enter it's game over 

Uhh.... haven't you been seeing Russian news. They are already at war with NATO. It's NATO killing Ukrainians whilst Russia are trying their upmost to save them from the naughty West