villa82 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 In the fight for second we need to get two points pr game. And hope Derby slip up a bit. Lose or draw next game, and a Derby win, and we are as far behind we can tolerate. I think we can't fall further behind second place than five-six points by the end of this month. The last home game of the season vs Derby will (hopefully) be very interesting. With two games left it is almost impossible that we have second spot for granted before the Derby game. For that to happen we needs more than 11 points more than Derby in the next 18 games. Other teams might end above us, but if we do good I only fear for Derby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted January 10, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted January 10, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, villa82 said: In the fight for second we need to get two points pr game. And hope Derby slip up a bit. Lose or draw next game, and a Derby win, and we are as far behind we can tolerate. I think we can't fall further behind second place than five-six points by the end of this month. The last home game of the season vs Derby will (hopefully) be very interesting. With two games left it is almost impossible that we have second spot for granted before the Derby game. For that to happen we needs more than 11 points more than Derby in the next 18 games. Other teams might end above us, but if we do good I only fear for Derby. So essentially for the last game to be winner takes all, we need to outscore Derby by 2 points (and have a better goal difference as a result) over 18 games. Then no pressure on the last home game Edited January 10, 2018 by romavillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dn1982 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Going off that table it shows Hull getting 2nd on 79pts. Is that the most Bruce has ever got after 46 games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa82 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, romavillan said: So essentially for the last game to be winner takes all, we need to outscore Derby by 2 points (and have a better goal difference as a result) over 18 games. Then no pressure on the last home game If I understand you, we need to outscore Derby by 11 points (and a far better goal difference)in the next 18 games, then we cab afford to lose vs Derby and away vs Millwall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa82 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, dn1982 said: Going off that table it shows Hull getting 2nd on 79pts. Is that the most Bruce has ever got after 46 games? Would we/Bruce take 79 points now, if given the chance? Guess so. But then Derby only needs 1,5 points pr game. Shows ho hard it is. But a couple of wins for us, and lost points for the rest it is all changed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dn1982 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, villa82 said: Would we/Bruce take 79 points now, if given the chance? Guess so. But then Derby only needs 1,5 points pr game. Shows ho hard it is. But a couple of wins for us, and lost points for the rest it is all changed! But if 79 is his highest ever it shows that he never hits his target of 2pts a game. It also highlights that even though he gets teams up his not all that over the course of a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Albrighton Posted January 10, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted January 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, villa82 said: Would we/Bruce take 79 points now, if given the chance? Guess so. But then Derby only needs 1,5 points pr game. Shows ho hard it is. But a couple of wins for us, and lost points for the rest it is all changed! I’d take 89 points as the final total now, if it was offered. No way would I take 79 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa82 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 And when was the last time Villa hit 2 points a game, over 20 games? Can't remember. Need a proper striker if that i is needed. Best we can hope for are that Derby/bristol/cardiff/boro all gives away points vs each other, and also against low places teams, and we finish with 79-84 points. 84 points, we have to end the season almost as strong as wolves started the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa82 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Shropshire Lad said: I’d take 89 points as the final total now, if it was offered. No way would I take 79 points. 89 points? 45 points in 20 games. 13 wins, 6 draws and one game lost, happy times coming! I would take 83 points, even 80 I guess. 80 points give us a good chance getting 2th (50/50?) if not, secured a place in the playoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Albrighton Posted January 10, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, villa82 said: 89 points? 45 points in 20 games. 13 wins, 6 draws and one game lost, happy times coming! I would take 83 points, even 80 I guess. 80 points give us a good chance getting 2th (50/50?) if not, secured a place in the playoff. I’ll be surprised if the points total for 2nd place will be 80 points. If it turns out that way, then fair enough but I doubt it. For me, 79 points would result in us being comfortably within the play offs but I wouldn’t feel confident in us progressing. I don’t think 89 points is likely, I think we’ll achieve somewhere between 79 and 89 points. But the crux of the original suggestion was would 79 points be acceptable and as I have (a small) hope of villa making the automatic spots and as I also feel 79 points would not be enough to achieve that, I would decline the hypothetical offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 hour ago, villa82 said: Would we/Bruce take 79 points now, if given the chance? Guess so. But then Derby only needs 1,5 points pr game. Shows ho hard it is. But a couple of wins for us, and lost points for the rest it is all changed! 85 at least in my opinion required Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa82 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 23 minutes ago, Shropshire Lad said: I have (a small) hope of villa making the automatic spots and as I also feel 79 points would not be enough to achieve that, I would decline the hypothetical offer. But 80 points, if that gives us 50% chance of 2th, then I take it. As it stand today we have just a bit more than 50% chance to make the playoffs. Derby need 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses to make 80 points. I guess 80 points will not be enough for us, and it shows how hard it will be if we dont close the gap by midle of february, when our oposition get harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 51 minutes ago, villa82 said: And when was the last time Villa hit 2 points a game, over 20 games? Can't remember. Need a proper striker if that i is needed. Best we can hope for are that Derby/bristol/cardiff/boro all gives away points vs each other, and also against low places teams, and we finish with 79-84 points. 84 points, we have to end the season almost as strong as wolves started the season. We took 34 from 16 games this season starting at home to Norwich and ending at home to Ipswich so we are capable if we don’t have anymore bad spells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, villa82 said: But 80 points, if that gives us 50% chance of 2th, then I take it. As it stand today we have just a bit more than 50% chance to make the playoffs. Derby need 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses to make 80 points. I guess 80 points will not be enough for us, and it shows how hard it will be if we dont close the gap by midle of february, when our oposition get harder. 2 points a game from here onwards would give us 84 which might just be enough - we have played nearly all the top teams away already so that helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa82 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Eastie said: 85 at least in my opinion required 85 sounds correct, and very hard for us. But Two wins for us, and Derby lose vs Blues and draw BristolC, and we are both on 50 points with 18 games left. Then we are fav for second. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted January 10, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 hour ago, villa82 said: If I understand you, we need to outscore Derby by 11 points (and a far better goal difference)in the next 18 games, then we cab afford to lose vs Derby and away vs Millwall. No I didn't mean that, I meant we need to outscore them by 2 points over the next 18 games to mean that we set up a winner takes all game at home against them, which if we win would mean we would need to better or match their result in the last game. Which is not a guarantee of second either, just finishing above Derby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, villa82 said: 85 sounds correct, and very hard for us. But Two wins for us, and Derby lose vs Blues and draw BristolC, and we are both on 50 points with 18 games left. Then we are fav for second. There will be a few surprise results on the way and highs and lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I would want to avoid bristol in play offs after the 5-0 drumming you know they will up their game even more to set record straight . As long as we have 2nd leg at villa park od fancy us to get to the final. Then its a lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 32 minutes ago, villa82 said: But 80 points, if that gives us 50% chance of 2th, then I take it. As it stand today we have just a bit more than 50% chance to make the playoffs. Derby need 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses to make 80 points. I guess 80 points will not be enough for us, and it shows how hard it will be if we dont close the gap by midle of february, when our oposition get harder. I think, at this point of the season, you are overthinking this. There's still a long way to go before looking at specific permutations and everyone (possibly bar Wolves) will be shifting around a fair bit. 2-3 wins or 2-3 losses and it all changes for any of the teams in the mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 (edited) 35 minutes ago, rubberman said: I think, at this point of the season, you are overthinking this. There's still a long way to go before looking at specific permutations and everyone (possibly bar Wolves) will be shifting around a fair bit. 2-3 wins or 2-3 losses and it all changes for any of the teams in the mix. True , we’ve made up 6 points on 2 days over new year on both Cardiff and Bristol - their squads will not be as big as ours and injuries and suspensions could play a big part Edited January 10, 2018 by Eastie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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