BOF Posted November 6, 2013 Moderator Share Posted November 6, 2013 Bye - Browns, Chiefs, Patriots, Jets 20:25 Thu Washington @ Minnesota Sky 13:00 Sun Cincinnati @ Baltimore 13:00 Sun Buffalo @ Pittsburgh 13:00 Sun St Louis @ Indianapolis 13:00 Sun Oakland @ NY Giants 13:00 Sun Philadelphia @ Green Bay 13:00 Sun Seattle @ Atlanta 13:00 Sun Detroit @ Chicago Sky 13:00 Sun Jacksonville @ Tennessee 16:05 Sun Carolina @ San Francisco 16:25 Sun Houston @ Arizona 16:25 Sun Denver @ San Diego Sky 20:30 Sun Dallas @ New Orleans 20:30 Mon Miami @ Tampa Bay Sky spoiling Broncos fans this season (about time!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFCforever1991 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Fairly tough week tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted November 6, 2013 Author Moderator Share Posted November 6, 2013 Washington @ MinnesotaCincinnati @ Baltimore Buffalo @ Pittsburgh St Louis @ Indianapolis Oakland @ NY GiantsPhiladelphia @ Green Bay Seattle @ AtlantaDetroit @ Chicago Jacksonville @ Tennessee Carolina @ San Francisco Houston @ ArizonaDenver @ San Diego Dallas @ New Orleans Miami @ Tampa Bay Some outsiders picked there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packoman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I'm really bad at predictions but here goes. Washington @ Minnesota Cincinnati @ Baltimore Buffalo @ Pittsburgh St Louis @ Indianapolis Oakland @ NY Giants Philadelphia @ Green Bay Seattle @ Atlanta Detroit @ Chicago Jacksonville @ Tennessee Carolina @ San Francisco Houston @ Arizona Denver @ San Diego Dallas @ New Orleans Miami @ Tampa Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted November 6, 2013 Author Moderator Share Posted November 6, 2013 I went with Philly because GB don't have a QB worth its name and Philly might have clicked after last week. Raiders are shite and Giants are dangerous at home. I think Seattle are going to come a cropper if they continue to start slowly and Matt Ryan is due a good week. Chicago without Cutler surely won't beat the Lions. Always like the Cards at home against mediocrity and Tampa's performance against the Seahawks means they'll surely win one soon. A local derby on MNF is a perfect way to do it Plenty of differences though packoman. Given my scores last week, you might be on for a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Pack ran for fun so I'd expect them to do the same to Philly, whether they win is something else entirely. Dallas should lose so a win for any of Washington, Philly or New York really tightens things up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milfner Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Washington @ MinnesotaCincinnati @ BaltimoreBuffalo @ PittsburghSt Louis @ IndianapolisOakland @ NY GiantsPhiladelphia @ Green BaySeattle @ AtlantaDetroit @ ChicagoJacksonville @ TennesseeCarolina @ San FranciscoHouston @ ArizonaDenver @ San DiegoDallas @ New OrleansMiami @ Tampa Narrow defeat for Panthers I reckon. Big game though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Washington @ Minnesota Cincinnati @ BaltimoreBuffalo @ Pittsburgh St Louis @ Indianapolis Oakland @ NY Giants Philadelphia @ Green BaySeattle @ AtlantaDetroit @ Chicago Jacksonville @ TennesseeCarolina @ San Francisco Houston @ ArizonaDenver @ San Diego Dallas @ New OrleansMiami @ Tampa Bay Cincy are ded 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted November 6, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted November 6, 2013 Washington 29 @ 28 MinnesotaCincinnati 21 @ 18 BaltimoreBuffalo 24 @ 23 PittsburghSt Louis 19 @ 28 IndianapolisOakland 20 @ 19 NY GiantsPhiladelphia 23 @ 32 Green BaySeattle 28 @ 21 AtlantaDetroit 27 @ 28 ChicagoJacksonville 16 @ 27 TennesseeCarolina 21 @ 24 San FranciscoHouston 19 @ 27 ArizonaDenver 34 @ 27 San DiegoDallas 21 @ 25 New OrleansMiami 22 @ 19 Tampa Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted November 6, 2013 Author Moderator Share Posted November 6, 2013 Levi, how does your system cater for things like Rodgers being out? Does the GB score get affected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted November 6, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted November 6, 2013 DVOASo, which team has the best defense in the NFL this year? The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed just 12.3 points per game, the best figure in the league.But against an almost insanely easy schedule, especially when you look at who was playing QB.The Houston Texans, as crazy as it sounds, are leading the league with just 273.5 yards allowed per game.But when you give up as many return TDs as the Texans do (which count for zero yards against the defense and nearly always result in another drive for the offense)...Cleveland actually leads the league with just 4.5 yards allowed per play.That's a better stat; the only real rebuttal (weak as it is) is that the Browns haven't had big leads for the most part...And a lot of fans would just forget about which teams lead in these various categories and instead go with the defense with the strongest track record of dominance over the last season and a half, the Seattle Seahawks.Well, DVOA doesn't have any of these teams as the top defense of 2013. It has a surprise team instead: the 4-4 Arizona Cardinals.Yes, the Cardinals move into the top spot in defense at -19.1% DVOA despite not playing in Week 9, as Seattle's near-loss to Tampa Bay drops the Seahawks into second place. The Cardinals have a strong all-around defense, ranking second against the run and third against the pass.Why does Football Outsiders put the Cardinals so far ahead of their rank in points allowed (21.8 per game, 11th) or yards per play (5.0, eighth)? Well, one reason is turnovers. The Cardinals are second in the NFL with 2.4 takeaways per game. (DVOA doesn't actually give them as much credit as that number would indicate, because they've recovered seven of ten fumbles.) The Cardinals also get better on more important downs. They're just average on first downs, but have the league's best defensive DVOA on second downs and rank third on third and fourth downs. Finally, there's the issue of schedule. So far the Cardinals have played the league's fourth hardest schedule of opposing offenses.Some credit has to go to defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. We thought that the Cardinals defense was going to be in trouble this year, with previous defensive coordinator Ray Horton leaving for Cleveland. Horton has made the Browns better, but his departure has not made the Cardinals worse. Bowles looked like a terrible hire as defensive coordinator when you considered the way the Eagles defense crashed and burned when he took over as interim coordinator halfway through the 2012 season, and Arizona was due for some regression on defense after improving from 20th in 2011 to sixth in 2012. There were plenty of reasons to expect this defense to have problems in 2013, but they've been outstanding. Tyrann Mathieu has been a Rookie of the Year candidate, John Abraham has been a strong addition to the pass rush, and Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell are both excellent on the defensive line. Patrick Peterson is now one of the league's top corners, and the Cardinals rank fourth in DVOA against No. 1 receivers and sixth against No. 2 recievers.Unfortunately, Bruce Arians hasn't been able to put together an offense that complements the Cardinals' strong defense, even [with] Carson Palmer providing an upgrade at the quarterback position compared to last year's mess. Arizona is just 29th in offensive DVOA. Add that to average special teams, and you end up with a team that's 4-4 and ranks 14th in the league overall.In this week's Quick Reads, you saw that Nick Foles didn't make our list of the best quarterback games ever despite throwing seven touchdown passes. The main reason was quantity, not quality; because our list was based on DYAR, it gives more value to games where players have more passes or runs.Team DVOA, of course is a different story. It's a per-play statistic, not a total value stat, and by measuring team DVOA we can also incorporate a strong running day where Eagles backs had 98 yards on 19 carries. Put it all together, and the Eagles end up with the fifth-highest single-game offensive DVOA in DVOA history. Here's a list of every game above 90.0%.Chargers (+113.8%) vs. Giants (#13 defense): 2005 week 3 (Chargers won 45-23)Chiefs (+105.0%) vs. Lions (#21 defense): 2003 week 15 (Chiefs won 45-17)49ers (+98.8%) vs. Bears (#6 defense): 1991 week 17 (49ers won 52-14)Rams (+98.6%) vs. Chargers (#9 defense): 2000 week 5 (Rams won 57-31)Eagles (+97.8%) vs. Raiders (#27 defense): 2013 week 9 (Eagles won 49-20)Broncos (+97.0%) vs. Cowboys (#24 defense): 1998 week 2 (Broncos won 42-23)Chargers (+95.1%) vs. Jaguars (#5 defense): 2011 week 13 (Chargers won 38-14)Colts (+93.6%) vs. Dolphins (#18 defense): 2009 week 2 (Colts won 27-23)Chiefs (+93.1%) vs. Dolphins (#2 defense): 2002 week 4 (Chiefs won 48-30)Chargers (+91.4%) vs. Vikings (#23 defense): 2003 week 10 (Chargers won 42-28)Cowboys (+91.0%) vs. Giants (#13 defense): 2007 week 1 (Cowboys won 45-35)Patriots (+90.3%) vs. Dolphins (#31 defense): 2007 week 7 (Patriots won 49-28)The Chargers gained 485 yards in the best offensive DVOA game ever, or 8.7 yards per play, and their only turnover was a fumble recovered by the Giants. However, the game listed from the 2003 Chargers was probably even more interesting. The Chargers were 2-6 going into this game, and they stomped a Vikings team that came in 6-2. Drew Brees was injured, so Doug Flutie was the starting quarterback. Even more remarkable is the way the Chargers' offense collapsed the following week. In Week 10, San Diego beat Minnesota 42-28 with 458 yards, no turnovers, and 91.4% offensive DVOA. In Week 11, the same Chargers team again had Flutie at quarterback and lost 37-8 to Denver, with just 96 yards, four turnovers, and -98.0% offensive DVOA.The other game that might stand out is the 2009 game where the Colts got one of the highest DVOA ratings ever with just 27 points. That was the Monday Night Football game that showed everyone how meaningless time of possession was. The Dolphins had the ball for 45:07 and 84 plays compared to just 14:53 and 35 plays for the Colts. The Colts gained 10.2 yards per play and won the game.The gradual increase in the strength of the opponent adjustments mean that the Denver Broncos dropped a little bit this week without even playing a game. As a result, the Broncos have almost dropped off the list of the best teams in DVOA history. Only a dozen teams have ever put up at least 40% DVOA through Week 9, and the Broncos are the last team in that dozen.Jacksonville was also saw its rating drop this week despite being on its bye week. In Jacksonville's case, the issue wasn't opponent adjustments getting stronger, but rather opponent adjustments changing as past Jacksonville opponents like Seattle, St. Louis, and especially Oakland all played worse than usual in Week 9. That moves Jacksonville back into the top spot (if you can call it that) as the worst team DVOA has ever tracked.However, when it comes to watching for the best and worst DVOA ratings ever, I'm not sure anything quite matches what's going on with special teams this year. Houston special teams cost the Texans an estimated minus-10.4 points compared to average this week, mostly thanks to three missed field goals. That's enough to move the Texans down to 31st in special teams. Of course, it isn't like the Giants got better on their bye week. As a result, we now have three 2013 teams sitting among the dozen worst special teams DVOA ratings through Week 9, going back to 1989. That's just crazy. We estimate that the Giants have cost themselves 3.6 points per game with bad special teams, the Texans have cost themselves 4.0 points per game, and the Redskins have cost themselves 4.5 points per game. Houston and Washington are below average in all five phases of special teams that we measure. The Giants are above average on kickoffs and close to average on field goals and kick returns, but their punts and punt coverage have been horrific. Right now, we estimate that the Giants have cost themselves minus-23.4 points of estimated field position on punts. That would be the fifth-worst figure since 1989, and there's still half a season left.The current version of DVOA normalizes every year to 0.0%, which means that these three pathetic special teams units (and the slightly less pathetic Tennessee Titans, at -8.1% DVOA) should skew the average and lead to more teams with positive special teams DVOA than with negative special teams DVOA. Surprisingly, that's not the case. We still have 16 teams above average, and 16 teams below. However, there are a lot more good special teams than bad. Ten different teams have special teams DVOA above 4.0%, while only the four teams mentioned in this section have special teams DVOA below -4.0%.1. Broncos: +41.1%=== +40%2. Seahawks: +30.0%=== +30%3. Panthers: +26.0%4. Bears: +24.2%5. Colts: +20.2%=== +20%6. 49ers: +17.3%7. Saints: +17.1%8. Bengals: +16.0%9. Chiefs: +14.7%10. Packers: +14.4%11. Patriots: +12.9%12. Cowboys: +12.8%=== 10%13. Lions: +6.3%14. Cardinals: +2.5%=== 0%15. Chargers: -1.5%16. Eagles: -1.6%17. Dolphins: -2.1%18. Falcons: -4.5%19. Jets: -5.1%20. Bills: -5.5%21. Ravens: -8.1%22. Browns: -9.8%=== -10%23. Bucs: -10.3%24. Steelers: -10.9%25. Vikings: -11.7%26. Rams: -13.2%27. Titans: -14.0%28. Redskins: -18.4%=== -20%29. Texans: -22.6%30. Giants: -22.6%=== -30%31. Raiders: -36.1%=== -40%=== -50%=== -60%32. Jaguars: -66.3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted November 6, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted November 6, 2013 Levi, how does your system cater for things like Rodgers being out? Does the GB score get affected?It doesn't take injuries into account.It actually doesn't hurt that much in betting terms, since bettors tend to overreact to injuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFCforever1991 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 (edited) Washington @ Minnesota Cincinnati @ BaltimoreBuffalo @ PittsburghSt Louis @ IndianapolisOakland @ NY Giants Philadelphia @ Green BaySeattle @ Atlanta Detroit @ ChicagoJacksonville @ TennesseeCarolina @ San FranciscoHouston @ ArizonaDenver @ San DiegoDallas @ New OrleansMiami @ Tampa Bay Edited November 7, 2013 by AVFCforever1991 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packoman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Chicago without Cutler surely won't beat the Lions. Looks like he's going to play now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted November 8, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted November 8, 2013 Milfner off to an early lead in the picks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshVilla Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Redskins threw another game away, typical. We can forget about the playoffs, 2nd and 4 by the goal line to tie the game and have a chance in overtime and we can't even do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFCforever1991 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Redskins threw another game away, typical. We can forget about the playoffs, 2nd and 4 by the goal line to tie the game and have a chance in overtime and we can't even do that. Yeah you're in a terrible division, so you still have a shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 It's nice that KC fans finally have a team to be proud of, but it'll end it heartbreak. I'm really looking forward to the Denver games. Then we'll see who is top dog in AFC West. Milfner off to an early lead in the picks... Why aren't you in the Yahoo Pick 'em league? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjw63 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 It's nice that KC fans finally have a team to be proud of, but it'll end it heartbreak. I'm really looking forward to the Denver games. Then we'll see who is top dog in AFC West. Milfner off to an early lead in the picks... Why aren't you in the Yahoo Pick 'em league? Oi I don't need any more competition for top spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milfner Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 It's nice that KC fans finally have a team to be proud of, but it'll end it heartbreak. I'm really looking forward to the Denver games. Then we'll see who is top dog in AFC West. Milfner off to an early lead in the picks... Why aren't you in the Yahoo Pick 'em league? Because it would've been too easy winning every week/I was travelling all summer so wasn't around to sign up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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