Laughable Chimp

As to how accurate the wage bill is it predicting final positions, I think I'll have a look at that myself when I get back home. Sounds like a fun project.

They do use transfermarkt squad value. This isn't me speculating, they literally say it themselves on their website. They don't just use transfermarkt squad value obviously though. What they essentially do is they look at how a team performed in the previous season and the pre-season transfermarkt squad value and then combine both to get an SPI value, their metric for how strong a team is. They then use that to simulate matches for the whole season. Generally, the SPI and a team's prediction position follows very closely so we can treat them as the same. For example, we're predicted at 8th in the table and have the 8th highest SPI. The reason I believe why their model predicts us so highly and higher than almost all other teams we finished around is simply because of how high our transfermarkt squad value is compared to the almost every other team around us. We have 100 million euros more in squad value than 9th place in the table for example and even more than teams below that. The model putting us above Leicester despite Leicester having a higher squad value is also very explainable. When 538 look at how a team performs in the previous season, they're looking at a lot more than just how many points a team got. They don't want to overrate a team just because they happened to get a string of "lucky" results for example. We don't have the exact metrics they use but as a very crude approximation, there's tables which measure things like expected points and expected goal difference and we happen to rank higher than Leicester in both. Combine this with the fact that Leicester's squad value is only very slightly higher than ours, it makes a lot of sense why we're predicted to finish even higher than them. Hence why we're predicted at 7th place despite having the 8th best squad value. You can explain every prediction they made with reference to similar methods I'm not trying to make the point that their model is bad. I just want to say that their model isn't this obtuse black box where we have no idea how to make their predictions. They're all explainable based on what data most normal people have access to. I will say though, if all you care about is predicted team positions, I could probably make a very similar prediction table myself and it wouldn't be that far less accurate compared to what they did with much less effort and time put into it.

They predict us that highly mostly because of our transfermarkt squad value. No, seriously they literally use them in their calculations. https://www.transfermarkt.com/premier-league/marktwerteverein/wettbewerb/GB1 We're 8th place here and there's a 100 million euro difference between us and next lowest West Ham in terms of squad value. The team above us in squad value is Leicester but they have a near identical squad value to us and actually performed worse than us last season in certain important metrics beyond just points gained which 538 looks at as more important. That's why we're predicted higher than them as well. Hence 7th. The specifics on how they make their calculation isn't known, but with the data available to us, it's easy to see why they have certain predictions.

3 of those were pens though. And he played almost every single minute for Norwich last season, even more than Watkins did.

True. Don't think he's on their level. Still think he could be a useful option. There are some stats of his that season which makes me think he could've done better for us and was a bit unlucky to have not. I do think the team was quite unbalanced with him in midfield at least at the time.

Probably extremely unpopular, but for the right wages I'd welcome Barkley back. I don't think he's that bad and he has a use.

Gerrard said that he prefers to play higher up the pitch. I don't think he himself has said anything.

Absolutely. But its hard to suggest them without being lambasted on here. Imagine saying half a year ago that Callum Chambers on a free would be good enough to play for our first team. Imagine not many people would agree with that.

A bit on the older side though. There really are still a lot of good players out there that don't get talked about enough because they were relatively late bloomers and never played for top teams.

Plenty of the transfer window still left. I think interested teams are testing our resolve and lowballing us. Meanwhile, we're willing to let it go down to the wire. Time will tell if that strategy pans out.

I swear everyone who underperforms for us gets labelled with the not fully fit excuse whether that's true or not. I see people saying that for Konsa to explain his underperformance when he was barely even injured before his season-ending injury.

More Bent, Hutton, etc.

This should always be the automatic assumption tbh. Too many people take the manager's words too seriously.

Tammy has a great goal record, but even Roma fans will tell you his finishing isn't the best. He still misses a lot, he just gets a shit ton of chances.

Sofascore records ratings for the Segunda division and they're pretty comparable to whoscored ratings

You would think that, but good left backs are clearly not 9 times less common than good right backs as one would expect at the top level. I think left-footed people are also a lot more likely to pursue a football career compared to right-footed ones due to the natural advantage they have. Such that at the highest level, the difference in the number of top level left-footed and right-footed players ends being much less considerable.

I mean, I don't know Carney but I don't think any of us know him either to be able to say he wouldn't wait a season for Barca. If Barca really want him and he really wants to go there, I can see him waiting a season. He's only 18, its not the end of the world if he isn't playing first team football every week yet, and its not like he'd be playing first team football if he moved to these clubs earlier either.

I wouldn't call this a conservative estimate tbh. That sounds like a team competing for top 4. Do agree though our squad is pretty good

What are the odds of an 18 year old randomly getting a career ending injury in a training session in the next year? That has to be exceedingly exceedingly rare, especially since he's probably going to be careful for the next year.

Don't have to be a top level player. If lots of clubs are bidding for your services, you'll have power to raise your demands.That just tends to happen more with top level players.

If you looked at sofascore and whoscored ratings, the lowest rated players who played at least 900 minutes last season(ignoring GKs) for us were Nakamba, Konsa and Young. Perhaps its no coincidence that the 3 new players we've brought in so far have been a DM, a CB and an LB. If you continue to follow that trend, the next lowest rated player on both sites is Ings so it might imply he's next on our replacement list.

If we do sell him, I hope we take a big fee upfront rather than a smaller fee with a big sell on clause. I don't want to hope for him to do well after leaving us.

Tbf to the kid, if I knew clubs like Barca are interested in me and I only had a year left, I'd probably just leave too unless they give me a massive wage.

Players are paid based on whatever it takes to get them to sign a contract for us and still be worth it. If Kamara wanted a 150k per week contract and we thought it was still worth it to pay him that amount, we'd pay him that. Its not like he didn't have other options that he would've happily moved to instead if we didn't meet his demands.

Absolutely. I reckon about 5mil with a significant sell on clause.