My thoughts on this:
I said about 6 months ago that if Nokia didn't either just try to get themselves with as much of a say as possible in Android or make a really good go of Meego that they're dead and buried. They've kept with trying to flog the dead horse that is Symbian and not really made any great strides with Meego so they've completely lost the smartphone market.
I understand Nokia are still massive globally but the momentum away from them is even bigger. People get Nokia phones because they're cheap and simple or because that's what they know. Unfortunately for them, what people know is now how an iPhone or Android phone works, the slick touchscreen interface with popular viral apps. The only thing Nokia will have to rely on is their patents which should at least keep them afloat for years to come and allow them to survive to be able to innovate the next major thing in mobile, if they are able to.
RIM is a slightly different one. They have the corporate mobile exchange market all sewn up at the moment. But they've reason to be worried about cloud mail. Corporate gmail is being used more and more so their usp of push mail with native exchange support is not the draw it used to be. Once the techies start showing off their next-gen smartphones to the execs with activesync / cloud mail and far better mail client / calendar / contacts sharing and sync etc. RIM will really have a job on their hands. Added to this the fact that Blackberry's really are incredibly crap means there's only one thing RIM can do now - use Android and put their exchange support on top. They would get all the stuff Android provides such as tethering, best web browsing experience, apps, hardware drivers plus their proprietary stuff and corporate image. The result would be a mobile exec's wet dream and mean they wouldn't have to carry the 2 phones anymore - the BB for work email and the smartphone as the useful, nice to use phone. If they don't do it now they'll fade into obscurity within 18 months and have nothing to fall back on like Nokia do. If they take it on right now and release a really good Android based corporate BB within 6 months they'll save it and remain relevant.