thunderball

Targett just doesn’t look like an elite athlete

It’s hardly our first team, or even half our first team

Said no one ever

Not much is working

Woodward is Terrible

Wow, just brilliant. You captured it perfectly for us fans. Let’s hope Jack wants to be Villa’s Totti, and I believe his provenance and appreciation of the wider game suggests he does. Soulless trophies and mercenary money is one thing, but Legendary status and true accomplishment is a rare commodity and wealth that only a few attain.

Nah, its been in place since 2015. Its locked to new followers and has been for at least 12 months maybe longer. 4800 followers including quite a few better known villa twitter and some who are on here incl Omar (Villa Talks) and is @Trentvilla twitter the same as @TrentVilla , oh and Sean Teale? Dosn't mean anything of course.

I agree totally with this. I think Alvarez is an opportunity at the price being mentioned and would be as well as a Bailey or other. I think Alvarez is just an upgrade on AEG.

Whispers has some credibility and a track record but is incredibly cryptic. He doesnt post frequently (it can be 18 months apart), the account has been locked to new followers for over a year so he is not on an ego trip or an attention seeker. I really can’t work it out. His English/grammar is really poor so he either isn’t very smart or English isn’t his first language, neither of which is an issue but you would think that level of info has to come from inside the club and not sure that profile fits that opportunity? But on Twitter there is some legit info from obscure sources and he has provided telling info for a number of years,

Not sure Tammy would come here as Watkins is better and firmly #1, it doesn’t improve his position as being a reserve forward. Tammy will likely end up at WHU, and it will be a good move for all parties unfortunately.

According to “whispers” on Twitter, Bailey is a fall back position to our #1 target (?). It doesn't necessarily follow that Alvarez is a #1 target, it might be someone else, it might be that Alvarez is an opportunity buy like Sanson. Maybe McNeil is the #1? It makes sense to me that we reinforce both left AND right wide forward positions this window, I have read/heard that the club will listen to offers for AEG which suggests that could happen. It could quite conceivably be Alvarez and McNeil/Bailey/Pereira, and even Tammy on loan with an option to buy. That’s about £100m this window incl Buendia, which the club could sanction if they see an opportunity to make ground. I don't think JWP is serious, it just doesn't make sense for the money it would take and McGinn/Sanson and our emerging youth.

Don’t think he will go just yet, as we might be on the cusp of something, but rumour is he is being put forward for the Swansea job with Jody Morris as his assistant.

According to Twitter, personal terms agreed and a formal offer will be lodged “this week”

Technically he is very good, he strikes me as more a deep lying midfielder than DM. He has shown he can score but never came close last season. Where did Pep see him playing? Surely we have a player on our hands, I know he's young, I hope we don't ruin him! It wouldnt surprise me if he moved on and flourished, just our luck.

Always enjoyed Dan Bardell, he is an honest, heart on sleeve Villa fan and thats all. I thought his Athletic hosting during the Euro's didnt really work for him sadly, because I would like him reach a wider audience. These podcasts are amateur but in many ways it makes them better than conventional media. Neil from For the Love of Paul McGrath is very good and an enjoyable listen as is our own Omar on Villa Talks. I enjoy MOMS, but recently David Michael's insistence of adding "er" on the end of most words in a sentence is beginning to grate with me, but I enjoy the view point and banter.

I was left with the distinct impression that Preece was as clueless about this as everyone else. It wouldn't surprise me if this goes no further. I am not sure if Pereira is a better option given his PL experience, but would happily take either. ESR looked a very good signing but that wont happen now.

It wont be, thats a guarantee - its a snapshot as of last week, the transfer window will affect it, as will injuries. The question we ask ourselves is: "Are we better over a season than Spurs, Arsenal, Leicester, Everton, WHU and Leeds" because thats the group we are amongst. By resource I say we are in the middle of that group so it depends on momentum and in season narrative, we could finish above them all but conceivabley if they all improve, we might be bottom of that group.

Clearly my abridged version of a long and detailed article wasn't perfect but the upshot is they have integrity and form on accuracy. Interestingly Matt Slater chose not to include this table in the article for precisely the reason it would be full of disgruntled comments. He added it in the comments section as so many asked for it. Clearly lots will change between last week and the start of the season, the club will know what needs to be done!

It doesnt say that nor do I, the article states that they were the first analytics firm to identify that Leicester would be champions. As the prediction about Liverpool finishing 3rd was AFTER VVD's injury, but it was correct none the less. The table looks entirely plausible at the moment? The only raised eyebrow for me is Wolves. Brighton had poor results for their endeavours and statistically their finishing position looked an anomoly. Like us every team will rue missed chances, bad results and bad luck when think about where they could have finished. Are you seeking confirmation bias given its not what you want to read?

Interesting article in the Athletic by Matt Slater this week about data and analytics in modern football. They refer to 'Data Analytics' a private company that goes beyond individual analysis by running models based on data plus current club statistic around playing style, tactics etc to predict the table. They model each club over 1m fixtures for an average and previously correctly predicted that Leicester would win the title in 2016 and Chelsea by 7 points in 2017, that Arsenal would finish outside the top 4 for the first time last season, Liverpool finishing 3rd after VVD's injury. They even suggest how many points individual players will contribute to a team's season. Apparently they are commissioned by many top clubs for this reason when looking at the impact of recruitment. Anyway, they have the following predictions for next season here (note this was run LAST WEEK and based on current [predominantly end of last season's] player personnel prior to most current new signings, so this will change. Not sure if Buendia was included for us, but maybe): Here's the table, plus chance of winning the title, avg points, top-4 chance & relegation chance 1. Man City, 70.2% chance of winning, 84.5 avg pts, 99.2% top 4, 0% relegation2. Liverpool, 19.6%, 77.2pts, 92.4%, 0%3. Chelsea, 7.2%, 72.6pts, 78.7%, 0%4. United, 1.2%, 65.8pts, 42.6%, 0%5. Spurs, 0.9%, 64.5pts, 35.3%, 0%6. Arsenal, 0.7%, 63.5pts, 31.4%, 0%7. Leicester, 0.2%, 59.7pts, 14.9%, 0.1%8. Brighton, 0%, 50.7pts, 1.5%, 2%9. Wolves, 0%, 50.6pts, 1.5%, 2.2%10. Leeds, 0%, 49.1pts, 0.9%, 3.3%11. West Ham, 0%, 48.7pts, 0.8%, 3.6%12. Villa, 0%, 46.2pts, 0.3%, 7.1%13. Everton, 0%, 45.1pts, 0.2%, 9.3%14. Palace, 0%, 44pts, 0.1%, 11.8%15. Brentford, 0%, 43.6pts, 0.1%, 13%16. Watford, 0%, 37.7pts, 0%, 38.9%17. Southampton, 0%, 37.2pts, 0%, 40.7%18. Newcastle, 0%, 35.6pts, 0%, 50.9%19. Burnley, 0%, 35.3pts, 0%, 52.1%20. Norwich, 0%, 33.3pts, 0%, 65.2% We need new signings! (Wolves is interesting??). We are only 3 points better off than Brentford! Matt Slater suggests that Villa is a surprise, especially as we have fewer points than last season. For me though what it might suggest is that even if Grealish goes, we might add new player(s) whose attributes improve the formula and it benefits the team. Thats my [desperate] silver lining anyway...

What’s clear is the established players face competition from the possibility of new signings but also from the hungry and very talented youngsters who are banging on the door. Everyone is going need these games to showcase their desire and application. Would love Freddie to challenge for a start but just feel the more established players cannot be complacent in these warm up games and didn’t think they did. I felt those four could and should have been dictating the second half, they were outshone by others. Early days and lots of hard work ahead clearly.

Mixed bag second half: Guilbert, Hourihane, McGinn, Wesley all failing to catch the eye or turn it on. Youngsters great.

Our youngsters really are very good, quite a few will be first teamers in due course.

Looks a long way behind everyone on this showing. Has a lot to do to catch up, just needs a goal to give himself a lift

The market is generally quiet, but usually is until the very end. I am sure the club are waiting until the dust settles around Jack because if he goes we have different priorities and more money for targets. But it does seem we want a new #10, that will be the exciting one. I also think we are waiting for interest around Luiz to manifest, I think he might be surplus to what we need and if we had the right offer he would go and we would buy a heavy weight DM. With a fully fit squad (excluding Trez) I would be happy to start the season with what we have: Sanson, Buendia and Nakamba will offer much more this season, the old McGinn will hopefully turn up, Traore and AEG should build on a decent season, Ollie should kick on and we will hopefully have Jack for more than 2/3rds of the season. I think we will improve with what we have. Could do with a little bit more solidity and fairy dust though if we are serious about Europe.