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how to beat the bookmaker


villaguy

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2:15 Fairyhouse - Rough Justice £20 @ 5/2 - Was a staying on 2nd in his 2m maiden hurdle behind Bishopslough when giving the winner 8lbs. Bishopslough went on to run a good 4 2nd to City Slicker in h/c hurdle on Sun. Also in that maiden in 3rd was Bawntameena who came 2nd nto in a maiden.

 

Rought Justice steps up to 2m4f today which will suit. while he meets his main 2 rivals on level weights today. Though not a weak maiden I still think he's value at 5/2 especially with Mullins string firing now.

 

 

Put a £5 saver on Red Road @ 6/1 - Charles Byrnes horse, his lot like a bet and seems they like him today.

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Warwick 1:20 - Minella for Party - £20 e/w & £10 win @ 11/2   – Appeared to be needing the run and ran out of steam fto over fences when well backed at Towcester last month. It’s possible his wind was at him as he now wears a tongue tie. Beforeall was 10l ahead that day getting 5lbs and that horse scored by 7l on Monday at Plumpton when upped in trip. 
 
Minella's stepped up in trip now which will suit as he proved when staying on over 2m5f on his last start last season. Also being by Flemsfirth the forecast rain will be of help too. He jumped well on his debut which will be an asset here at Warwick. Also p2p winner over 20f and cost £75k purchase, would be disappointing to all if he wasn't better than 110 
 
 
Minella looks very solid e/w bet here at 11/2 

 

 

Good lesson to be learnt for me here, don't back e/w on a horse wearing a first time tongue strap as if his breathing is at him the tongue strap may not remedy it and he may need an operation. If so he'll fade tamely like Minella did today.

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1:30 Market Rasen - Spanish Arch £ 15 @ 7/1 - Had a nice run fto behind Trafalgar where he tired in closing stages and made a mistake 4 out. Should bring him on for that run and drops back 1f now. Tullyraine was behind that day and was 3l 2nd nto so form looks solid. 
 
Suburban Boy is a fav I want to take on, won well in a lower class 9 days ago and now racing effectively off 110, a mark he struggled to win off for most of the summer. Looks a race too far imo. 
 
While Magic Bishop would interest more if it was 2f further as he is on a nice mark of 107 having scored on his 2nd start last season off a 5lb higher mark. £5 @ 8/1 just in case
Edited by CVByrne
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Been a bad couple of weekes, up and down up and down. With plenty of bad luck to boot. But the picks have by and large been solid so just need to wait for that bit of luck when things go well and you make money that would take a month of losses to lose. That's how it goes. 

 

Have a 25/1 shot Baile Anrai backed for the Fixed Brush Hurdles race at Haydock on Saturday, tweeted at the trainer to ask if he had breathing op as I'm sure he has.

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Loads of racing on today, 4 decent mettings, one of those days where nothing really stands out as a great bet but there are a good few that are interesting.

 

13:30 Market Rasen – Spanish Arch £15 @ 6/1

14:05 Market Rasen – Kaysersberg £10 @ 9/1

 

13:40 Chepstow -Tigresse Bleue £50 @ 10/11

14:50 Chepstow - Umberto Dolivate £15 @ 5/1

 

14:25 Wincanton – Lumpys Gold £25 @ 11/10

15:00 Wincanton - Tante Sissi £15 @ 15/8

 

12:25 Thurles – Trifolium £25  @ 11/10

 

 

£10 accumulator on Tigresse Bleu, Lumpys Gold, Trifolium & Urano (Thurles 1:125)

 

 

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I've been taking a look at the form and the tips today too and have come up with these - mostly outsiders with a good e/w chance at good odds:

 

1.30 Market Rasen - Present View 4p @ 11/4 win; Talkin Thomas 4p @ 7/1 e/w

 

12.40 Chepstow - Buywise - 4p @ 10/1 e/w

2.50 Chepstow  - Grey Soldier 4p @ 20/1 e/w

3.30 Chepstow - Tin Pot Man - 4p @ 7/1 e/w

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Tigresse Bleue looks an absolute shoe in in the 1:40 at Chepstow, won with any amount in hand 9 days ago and will probably come on for the run and get's in here off a penalty.  £50 @ 10/11 taken

 

 

That is what's call free money  :)  1/5 shot available at near evens

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