HKP90 Posted March 12 VT Supporter Share Posted March 12 12 hours ago, Mr_Dogg said: https://www.newsweek.com/presidential-election-latest-polls-biden-trump-1877928 Polling is simply all over the place, Biden will get a bump now after the SOTU. Poll I've just seen on 538 after the SOTU shows trump ahead by a point, with a decent sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 12 Moderator Share Posted March 12 13 minutes ago, HKP90 said: Poll I've just seen on 538 after the SOTU shows trump ahead by a point, with a decent sample size. Its pretty much all margin of error stuff though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 (edited) 1 hour ago, HKP90 said: Poll I've just seen on 538 after the SOTU shows trump ahead by a point, with a decent sample size. Yep and the poll you mention on 538 is the Morning Consult poll of 6,300 registered voters. The reason to me it doesn’t make a difference is that there are still >12% that haven’t decided yet or somehow was choosing somebody else. Plus 1% margin of error… That 12% is the decider of election not whether Biden or Trump is 1 or 2 points at this point, and that’s if this poll or any poll is accurate which doesn’t seem to be the case the last few years. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ Also doesn’t really matter what a national popular vote poll says, we know because of the electoral college that all that matters is a few swing states and how the nominees are doing in those states because 80% of the states are already decided naturally by the base populate of those states. Edited March 12 by nick76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr_Dogg Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 14 minutes ago, nick76 said: Yep and the poll you mention on 538 is the Morning Consult poll of 6,300 registered voters. The reason to me it doesn’t make a difference is that there are still >12% that haven’t decided yet or somehow was choosing somebody else. Plus 1% margin of error… That 12% is the decider of election not whether Biden or Trump is 1 or 2 points at this point, and that’s if this poll or any poll is accurate which doesn’t seem to be the case the last few years. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ Also doesn’t really matter what a national popular vote poll says, we know because of the electoral college that all that matters is a few swing states and how the nominees are doing in those states because 80% of the states are already decided naturally by the base populate of those states. I don't understand how there are people who could go between Biden and trump. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKP90 Posted March 12 VT Supporter Share Posted March 12 59 minutes ago, Mr_Dogg said: I don't understand how there are people who could go between Biden and trump. I don't understand how there are people who voted for him in 2020, then watched him try to destroy the democracy their country was founded on, plus the odd criminal case, and now say they are still voting for him. According to the charts above he's retained nearly all of his base from prior to the Treason. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rds1983 Posted March 12 VT Supporter Share Posted March 12 13 minutes ago, HKP90 said: I don't understand how there are people who voted for him in 2020, then watched him try to destroy the democracy their country was founded on, plus the odd criminal case, and now say they are still voting for him. According to the charts above he's retained nearly all of his base from prior to the Treason. I dont understand why he is even able to run for office. He should be in prison. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 12 Moderator Share Posted March 12 38 minutes ago, Rds1983 said: I dont understand why he is even able to run for office. He should be in prison. That wouldn't prevent him being elected President apparently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 2 hours ago, nick76 said: Also doesn’t really matter what a national popular vote poll says, we know because of the electoral college that all that matters is a few swing states and how the nominees are doing in those states because 80% of the states are already decided naturally by the base populate of those states. This is the kind of worrying part because it looks like it will be a close election +/- 1-2% either way. Hillary won the popular vote by 1.9% but lost the key states. Biden is determined not to make the same mistake with the blue firewall in the north but the polling there is bleaker than the general election results. Still plenty of time to turn it around and if it was within the margin of error - that would be one thing - but despite all of the polling misfires, a polling error of +/- 5% would be on the far unlikelier side. RCP rolling average in the swing states: Wisconsin +1 Trump Arizona +5.5 Trump Georgia +6.2 Trump Michigan +3.6 Trump Pennsylvania +0.8 Biden North Carolina +5.5 Trump Nevada +7.7 Trump He could still lose Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada and win with 273 with the slimmest of margins but he has to make up ground in Michigan where he's getting hurt by his pro-Israel stance (and the baffling conclusion that Trump would be the anti-war vote). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKP90 Posted March 12 VT Supporter Share Posted March 12 23 minutes ago, bickster said: That wouldn't prevent him being elected President apparently Being a foreigner is worse than a criminal when it comes to politics, then. Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKP90 Posted March 12 VT Supporter Share Posted March 12 2 minutes ago, DJBOB said: This is the kind of worrying part because it looks like it will be a close election +/- 1-2% either way. Hillary won the popular vote by 1.9% but lost the key states. Biden is determined not to make the same mistake with the blue firewall in the north but the polling there is bleaker than the general election results. Still plenty of time to turn it around and if it was within the margin of error - that would be one thing - but despite all of the polling misfires, a polling error of +/- 5% would be on the far unlikelier side. RCP rolling average in the swing states: Wisconsin +1 Trump Arizona +5.5 Trump Georgia +6.2 Trump Michigan +3.6 Trump Pennsylvania +0.8 Biden North Carolina +5.5 Trump Nevada +7.7 Trump He could still lose Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada and win with 273 with the slimmest of margins but he has to make up ground in Michigan where he's getting hurt by his pro-Israel stance (and the baffling conclusion that Trump would be the anti-war vote). Trump would finish the war, no question. In the same way a turd in a swimming pool ends a pool party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKP90 Posted March 12 VT Supporter Share Posted March 12 Oh it's all so depressing. I miss not having to worry about the world devolving into complete chaos and eternal war and destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, DJBOB said: This is the kind of worrying part because it looks like it will be a close election +/- 1-2% either way. Hillary won the popular vote by 1.9% but lost the key states. Biden is determined not to make the same mistake with the blue firewall in the north but the polling there is bleaker than the general election results. Still plenty of time to turn it around and if it was within the margin of error - that would be one thing - but despite all of the polling misfires, a polling error of +/- 5% would be on the far unlikelier side. RCP rolling average in the swing states: Wisconsin +1 Trump Arizona +5.5 Trump Georgia +6.2 Trump Michigan +3.6 Trump Pennsylvania +0.8 Biden North Carolina +5.5 Trump Nevada +7.7 Trump He could still lose Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada and win with 273 with the slimmest of margins but he has to make up ground in Michigan where he's getting hurt by his pro-Israel stance (and the baffling conclusion that Trump would be the anti-war vote). Yep Biden just has to pummel those states now with focus now. He has a war chest, the RNC is in shambles, the PAC’s mega donors are worried that Trump is just going to use their cash for legal bills and Trump is going to be overwhelmed with court dates. I just don’t get some of those polling numbers which I’ve been seeing and you highlight the averages above. The only heart I take from it is that polls have been consistently significantly off for the last few years and have been lopsided quite a lot to the Republican favour yet never eventuate as that. It’s amazing that it’s going to be close…I still think Biden will win similar to last time. Interesting 8 months ahead… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKP90 Posted March 12 VT Supporter Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, nick76 said: Yep Biden just has to pummel those states now with focus now. He has a war chest, the RNC is in shambles, the PAC’s mega donors are worried that Trump is just going to use their cash for legal bills and Trump is going to be overwhelmed with court dates. I just don’t get some of those polling numbers which I’ve been seeing and you highlight the averages above. The only heart I take from it is that polls have been consistently significantly off for the last few years and have been lopsided quite a lot to the Republican favour yet never eventuate as that. It’s amazing that it’s going to be close…I still think Biden will win similar to last time. Interesting 8 months ahead… I think you mis-spelled "**** stressful". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 52 minutes ago, HKP90 said: I think you mis-spelled "**** stressful". I don’t know why but I’m not stressed about it. It may be complete mad and delusional but I’m convinced Biden will win again by roughly the same electoral votes give or take. Last time I was dreading it but after 2018, 2020, 2022 elections…roe vs Wade, economy doing much better, Trump swamped with legal battles and the RNC in a mess, I’m fairly confident Biden will win. He has the Israel conflict against him but if Democrats vote for Trump or don’t vote at all in significant amounts I’d be surprised. When it comes downs to voting the Democrat voters can complain about one issue and let the devil win and have multitude of issues they disagree on with him or vote for Biden….I think the majority of those complaining realise that voting for Biden is the lesser of two evils by a long shot, that’s before talking about all the other policies that they disagree with Trump on. I’m just fascinated about the next 8+ months…it’s going to be fun to watch. Then if Trump does win after it all settles then I will freak out but I’m not expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 2 hours ago, nick76 said: Yep Biden just has to pummel those states now with focus now. He has a war chest, the RNC is in shambles, the PAC’s mega donors are worried that Trump is just going to use their cash for legal bills and Trump is going to be overwhelmed with court dates. I just don’t get some of those polling numbers which I’ve been seeing and you highlight the averages above. The only heart I take from it is that polls have been consistently significantly off for the last few years and have been lopsided quite a lot to the Republican favour yet never eventuate as that. It’s amazing that it’s going to be close…I still think Biden will win similar to last time. Interesting 8 months ahead… Yeah it's a race unlike any of the others in most people's living memories. The last person to try to serve nonconsecutive terms was Teddy Roosevelt. And while the polling has been off - it starts getting into unlikely territory at +/- 5%...but not impossible! Florida 2020 was off by 5.8 points Ohio was off by 7.4 points Iowa was off by 8 points Michigan was off by 5 points Now - they were all off to the direction of Trump so that isn't promising. We can only hope that the selective responses mean the polling is all off towards Biden this year. It's going to be close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MakemineVanilla Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 8 hours ago, HKP90 said: I don't understand how there are people who voted for him in 2020, then watched him try to destroy the democracy their country was founded on, plus the odd criminal case, and now say they are still voting for him. According to the charts above he's retained nearly all of his base from prior to the Treason. I've always found that empathy is very much in short supply when comes to politics, and it has got worse in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 (edited) Edited March 13 by nick76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 (edited) Edited March 13 by nick76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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