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My pre-season predictions  

 

AFC

 

1. Denver Broncos

2. Indianapolis Colts

3. New England Patriots

4. Cincinnati Bengals

5. Baltimore Ravens

6. San Diego Chargers

 

NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks

2. New Orleans Saints

3. Green Bay Packers

4. New York Giants

5. San Francisco 49ers

6. Chicago Bears

 

I've done alright with the AFC. Trying to be confident in the Giants didn't work and only got 2/6 (potentially 3 with Saints) in the NFC!

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I read an interesting article the other day which suggested the the Bucs should forget about drafting a QB this year and focus on building an amazing defense, while sacrificing a franchise QB. The idea was to have the build the best defense in the league, coached by Lovie Smith (obviously famous for his defensive teams).

 

They would trade off valuable assets (Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, maybe Doug Martin) and rebuild from there. The offense was proposed to be built entirely around the running game, with specialist run blockers up front complimented by a running back by committee approach and a QB who is a threat on his feet, like Terrelle Pryor.

 

The defense would be relied on heavily to win games, and the offense is to be just functional enough to get the job done, basically. Pretty much like the Seahawks, really. Not a bad argument when you think about how often the top QBs are over-valued in the draft these days.

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I read an interesting article the other day which suggested the the Bucs should forget about drafting a QB this year and focus on building an amazing defense, while sacrificing a franchise QB. The idea was to have the build the best defense in the league, coached by Lovie Smith (obviously famous for his defensive teams).

 

They would trade off valuable assets (Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, maybe Doug Martin) and rebuild from there. The offense was proposed to be built entirely around the running game, with specialist run blockers up front complimented by a running back by committee approach and a QB who is a threat on his feet, like Terrelle Pryor.

 

The defense would be relied on heavily to win games, and the offense is to be just functional enough to get the job done, basically. Pretty much like the Seahawks, really. Not a bad argument when you think about how often the top QBs are over-valued in the draft these days.

I think that's madness, personally.

 

For starters the logic doesn't make sense. What's more likely to happen? A consensus #1 pick QB to become a very good NFL player or picking up multiple defensive players, many lower in the draft, and all of them becoming good NFL players? Definitely the first.

 

8 of the last 9 winning Super Bowl QBs were picked in the first 32 picks of the draft. Only Rodgers (24th) and Brees (32nd) were picked outside the top 20. The one winning QB that wasn't, Russell Wilson, was a victim of typical overthinking by NFL scouts because of his size. He'd have definitely gone much earlier if they didn't look too much into silly things.

 

Even if you look at teams in the playoff hunt this season, the majority are lead by early QBs. Defense obviously helps, but it's an offensive league these days.

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I read an interesting article the other day which suggested the the Bucs should forget about drafting a QB this year and focus on building an amazing defense, while sacrificing a franchise QB. The idea was to have the build the best defense in the league, coached by Lovie Smith (obviously famous for his defensive teams).

 

They would trade off valuable assets (Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, maybe Doug Martin) and rebuild from there. The offense was proposed to be built entirely around the running game, with specialist run blockers up front complimented by a running back by committee approach and a QB who is a threat on his feet, like Terrelle Pryor.

 

The defense would be relied on heavily to win games, and the offense is to be just functional enough to get the job done, basically. Pretty much like the Seahawks, really. Not a bad argument when you think about how often the top QBs are over-valued in the draft these days.

I think that's madness, personally.

 

For starters the logic doesn't make sense. What's more likely to happen? A consensus #1 pick QB to become a very good NFL player or picking up multiple defensive players, many lower in the draft, and all of them becoming good NFL players? Definitely the first.

 

8 of the last 9 winning Super Bowl QBs were picked in the first 32 picks of the draft. Only Rodgers (24th) and Brees (32nd) were picked outside the top 20. The one winning QB that wasn't, Russell Wilson, was a victim of typical overthinking by NFL scouts because of his size. He'd have definitely gone much earlier if they didn't look too much into silly things.

 

Even if you look at teams in the playoff hunt this season, the majority are lead by early QBs. Defense obviously helps, but it's an offensive league these days.

 

 

The quickest (and cheapest) way to maximise wins is to get a franchise QB. 

The simplest way to get a franchise QB is to draft one of the highest rated QB's and give them some playing time in the league and then make a decision on them. 

 

I honestly thought a consequence of the rookie salary cap might be that the awful teams draft multiple QB's in the first few rounds until they find a QB they think can be a franchise QB to build around. There should be no need financially any more to give your rookie QB a 4-year audition before deciding what you've got. 

 

If I was the GM of a terrible team (e.g. Jags, Titans, Raiders) I'd just keep on drafting a QB in the early rounds until I have one I believe in. I wouldn't be pinning myself to one guy regardless of how high I drafted them. It really wouldn't be a disaster to keep cutting players on their rookie contracts if they don't pan out. 

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Of course, if you go back over 15 years of Super Bowl winning QBs:

Wilson: 75th pick

Flacco: 18th pick

Eli: 1st pick

Rodgers: 24th pick

Brees: 32nd pick *

Roethlisberger: 11th pick

Eli: 1st pick

Peyton: 1st pick

Roethlisberger: 11th pick

Brady: 199th pick

Brady: 199th pick

Johnson: 227th pick *

Brady: 199th pick

Dilfer: 6th pick *

Warner: undrafted

*: won Super Bowl with team other than one that drafted him (in Eli's case, given the speed with which the pick was traded, I'll call him a Giants pick for that purpose); Brees pre-Saints, Johnson pre-Bucs, and Dilfer pre-Ravens (and arguably Dilfer and Johnson their whole careers; as well as arguably Warner pre-Rams) were all somewhere in the bounce-between-backup-and-starter and midlevel starter (think Ryan Fitzpatrick/Brian Hoyer to Jay Cutler/Andy Dalton).

I'd also suggest that a QB taken after the 16th pick is probably not that highly rated coming out of college; Flacco and Rodgers had major question marks surrounding them (and Rodgers wasn't a starter for a number of seasons, either). Players coming out at that point in the draft, likely as not, are going to teams that are already close to being playoff teams.

And if you go back another 5 years

Elway: 1st pick

Elway: 1st pick

Favre: 33rd pick

Aikman: 1st pick

Young: supplemental 1st

Edited by leviramsey
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My Super Bowl odds

Seahawks: 42%

Patriots: 17%

Broncos: 15%

Cowboys: 10%

Packers: 6%

Steelers: 4%

Colts: 3%

Bengals, Ravens, Cardinals: 1%

Lions, Panthers: <1%

Chances of winning AFC

Patriots: 39%

Broncos: 33%

Steelers: 11%

Colts: 9%

Bengals, Ravens: 4%

Chances of winning NFC

Seahawks: 64%

Cowboys: 18%

Packers: 15%

Cardinals: 2%

Panthers: 1%

Lions: <1%

Chances of AFC Championship Game appearance

Patriots: 69%

Broncos: 63%

Steelers: 24%

Colts: 22%

Bengals, Ravens: 11%

Chances of NFC Championship Game appearance

Seahawks: 89%

Packers: 49%

Cowboys: 46%

Cardinals: 9%

Panthers: 6%

Lions: 1%

Edited by leviramsey
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