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I only know it because performance in the second half with 1 score margin is one of the adjustments to DVOA to help generate an expected record; because of this, the adjustments were expecting only 1.0 wins for the Bills.

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My new expected win averages (Playoffs, In the Hunt)

AFC East

  1. Patriots: 11.2 (+0.3 from preseason)
  2. Jets: 11.2 (+3.4)
  3. Bills: 9.2 (-0.9)
  4. Dolphins: 5.6 (-0.7)

AFC North
  1. Bengals: 11.1 (+1.9)
  2. Steelers: 9.0 (+2.3)
  3. Ravens: 6.4 (-0.7)
  4. Browns: 6.1 (+1.5)

AFC South
  1. Colts: 7.7 (-0.7)
  2. Titans: 6.7 (+0.7)
  3. Texans: 5.9 (-4.9)
  4. Jaguars: 5.6 (+0.4)

AFC West
  1. Broncos: 10.1 (-3.5)
  2. Chargers: 7.7 (-0.5)
  3. Raiders: 7.4 (+0.9)
  4. Chiefs: 6.1 (-2.2)

NFC East
  1. Giants: 9.7 (+3.0)
  2. Washington: 8.4 (+3.1)
  3. Cowboys: 7.3 (-0.4)
  4. Eagles: 6.6 (-4.0)

NFC North
  1. Packers: 11.2 (+0.4)
  2. Vikings: 7.5 (+0.2)
  3. Bears: 7.1 (+2.7)
  4. Lions: 4.3 (-2.2)

NFC South
  1. Falcons: 11.8 (+4.0)
  2. Panthers: 9.7 (+1.1)
  3. Saints: 6.6 (-1.9)
  4. Bucs: 5.2 (-2.1)

NFC West
  1. Cardinals: 11.5 (+7.1)
  2. Rams: 8.2 (+1.1)
  3. Seahawks: 7.9 (-5.8)
  4. 49ers: 5.7 (-4.1)
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(I project the Patriots as favorites home & away against the Jets)

Wild card round (Patriots, Bengals, Falcons, Cardinals byes)

  • Bills @ Broncos ("Wade Phillips Reunion Special!"): Bills 24-20 Broncos (and probably no offensive touchdowns...)
  • Jets @ Colts: Jets 25-14 Colts
  • Washington @ Packers: Washington 23-25 Packers
  • Panthers @ Giants: Panthers 18-24 Giants

Divisional round

  • Bills @ Patriots: Bills 27-31 Patriots
  • Jets @ Bengals: Jets 21-17 Bengals
  • Giants @ Falcons: Giants 25-26 Falcons
  • Packers @ Cardinals: Packers 24-30 Cardinals

Championships

  • Jets @ Patriots: Patriots 25.4 - 24.7 Jets
  • Cardinals @ Falcons: Cardinals 31-28 Falcons
  • Patriots vs. Cardinals: Patriots 30-31 Cardinals
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  • 2 weeks later...

My quarter-pole power ratings, by tier (and then ordered within tiers, but I'd be a lot less confident)

  1. Cardinals, Patriots, Jets
  2. Falcons
  3. Giants, Bengals, Packers, Bills
  4. Washington, Steelers
  5. Broncos, Panthers, Seahawks, Cowboys
  6. Rams, Eagles, Vikings
  7. Bears, Raiders, Browns, Colts, Chargers, Saints, 49ers, Ravens
  8. Titans, Dolphins, Texans, Chiefs
  9. Jaguars, Bucs
  10. Lions

Halfway through the season now (in general, I'd pick a team in a higher tier to win home or away over a team in a lower tier)

  1. Broncos
  2. Patriots
  3. Bengals, Packers, Panthers
  4. Cardinals
  5. Steelers, Jets, Eagles, Raiders
  6. Vikings, Rams, Seahawks, Chiefs
  7. Falcons, Giants, Dolphins, Saints
  8. Ravens, Bills, Washington, Cowboys, Browns, Colts, Texans, Chargers, Bucs, 49ers, Bears
  9. Jaguars, Lions, Titans
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My quarter-pole power ratings, by tier (and then ordered within tiers, but I'd be a lot less confident)

  1. Cardinals, Patriots, Jets
  2. Falcons
  3. Giants, Bengals, Packers, Bills
  4. Washington, Steelers
  5. Broncos, Panthers, Seahawks, Cowboys
  6. Rams, Eagles, Vikings
  7. Bears, Raiders, Browns, Colts, Chargers, Saints, 49ers, Ravens
  8. Titans, Dolphins, Texans, Chiefs
  9. Jaguars, Bucs
  10. Lions

 

Halfway through the season now (in general, I'd pick a team in a higher tier to win home or away over a team in a lower tier)

  1. Broncos
  2. Patriots
  3. Bengals, Packers, Panthers
  4. Cardinals
  5. Steelers, Jets, Eagles, Raiders
  6. Vikings, Rams, Seahawks, Chiefs
  7. Falcons, Giants, Dolphins, Saints
  8. Ravens, Bills, Washington, Cowboys, Browns, Colts, Texans, Chargers, Bucs, 49ers, Bears
  9. Jaguars, Lions, Titans

How does this work? Think the Jags look a little low, with being in the same division as Titans. They cant be below 49er. I actually like their offence.

 

I mean could the Jags get to the playoffs? crazier things have happened

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My quarter-pole power ratings, by tier (and then ordered within tiers, but I'd be a lot less confident)

  1. Cardinals, Patriots, Jets
  2. Falcons
  3. Giants, Bengals, Packers, Bills
  4. Washington, Steelers
  5. Broncos, Panthers, Seahawks, Cowboys
  6. Rams, Eagles, Vikings
  7. Bears, Raiders, Browns, Colts, Chargers, Saints, 49ers, Ravens
  8. Titans, Dolphins, Texans, Chiefs
  9. Jaguars, Bucs
  10. Lions

 

Halfway through the season now (in general, I'd pick a team in a higher tier to win home or away over a team in a lower tier)

  1. Broncos
  2. Patriots
  3. Bengals, Packers, Panthers
  4. Cardinals
  5. Steelers, Jets, Eagles, Raiders
  6. Vikings, Rams, Seahawks, Chiefs
  7. Falcons, Giants, Dolphins, Saints
  8. Ravens, Bills, Washington, Cowboys, Browns, Colts, Texans, Chargers, Bucs, 49ers, Bears
  9. Jaguars, Lions, Titans

How does this work? Think the Jags look a little low, with being in the same division as Titans. They cant be below 49er. I actually like their offence.

 

I mean could the Jags get to the playoffs? crazier things have happened

I don't think so - even as bad as they've been, Colts are a better team and will probably go 6-0 in AFC South, again.

Also would expect that after Broncos this week and bye week the next, they'll have a lot more production out of that offence. Their defence has been OK to be honest.

I'm seeing the odds tumbling on them winning it all and I'm waiting for it to go a bit further - they've only been stuffed by the Bills (of all teams) in week 1 and I'd not bet against them marching on in the playoffs. Individual talent on that offence like no-ones business.

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Does anyone think it's possibly a bad thing that the Broncos are still undefeated? Yes, I always love to have a good joke about Peyton, but being undefeated means there is no way he will be benched. At some point, he's going to cost them a game, because they're not winning a shootout unless the defense scores a tonne of points for them. Look at it this way, Colin Keapernick is having a better season than Peyton despite having a worse Oline and targets.

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Does anyone think it's possibly a bad thing that the Broncos are still undefeated? Yes, I always love to have a good joke about Peyton, but being undefeated means there is no way he will be benched. At some point, he's going to cost them a game, because they're not winning a shootout unless the defense scores a tonne of points for them. Look at it this way, Colin Keapernick is having a better season than Peyton despite having a worse Oline and targets.

If we were blowing teams away with our offence the way we were a few years back then I'd be worried.  Because you just can't keep that kind of thing going.  But we aren't.  At the moment the defence is playing great and in the past week the offence came on in leaps and bounds.  We're still evolving this season.  Still figuring out the best way to play.  The fact we're putting teams away at the same time is a happy coincidence.  I don't see being unbeaten as a negative this season.  We have many more strings to our bow this time around.  Not that I'll be tempting fate at all.  I'm just happy with our progress.  We still need to be lucky with injuries too.

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He "has cost" us a game or two already, but unlike previous years he has been bailed out by teammates and good coaching.

And we are getting better. How far it will take us remains to be seen but apart from the Pats, no other team has impressed throughout the season, undefeated or not. Packers was the closest. Bengals and Panthers have done roughly the same as us, winning and stumbling

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One thing that surprised me was just how poor the Packers offense is. The Broncos actually have a better offense this season! I think Rodgers stat padding redzone play this season has made them a little misleading.

I think it's more likely to sustain a high powered offense in to the playoffs than for your defense to be outscoring your offense though.

Edited by kurtsimonw
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I think it's more likely to sustain a high powered offense in to the playoffs than for your defense to be outscoring your offense though.

Which is why I think the Packers game was an interesting sea change for us.  It was the first time this season the offence managed to get the job done and not be completely bailed out by the defence.  Yes the defence played fantastically well too, but the offence at least turned up.  They hadn't done to that point.

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Further proof that Greg Hardy is a piece of shit, if you ever needed it. Looking forward to when the Cowboys extend his contract http://deadspin.com/this-is-why-nfl-star-greg-hardy-was-arrested-for-assaul-1739117634?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_twitter&utm_source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

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