Lerner's Driver Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Just now, Jas10 said: Such an exciting time isn’t it? We’re already a stronger and better outfit… but that little bit of extra “stardust” would make us even stronger, properly formidable and dangerous and make the “big clubs” shit their pants I LOVE UNAI!! Very exciting indeed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhan_Zhuang Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, Lerner's Driver said: I'm sure Mr Bardell and others have said he'd be happy if we were done in the market already. He's been saying three new bodies in is about right - when you start getting up to five, six or seven, that's too much change. Who knows, but that didn't seem right to me. I think we are on a mission and more is needed. Squad depth is pretty good now; perhaps we sign another one or two if we can ship out Davis, Hause and maybe Dendoncker. Thing is Villa will be in a strong position in January, maybe another player will leave and we can sign one or two if necessary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jas10 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, villa4europe said: My point was the way monchi describes it sounds brilliant... But also exactly like what we did with lange / suso / purslow / Smith / Gerrard I hate the whole "definitely a purslow signing" criticism, don't think thats how we've ever operated Oh… yeah I get what you’re saying. It’s easy to target individuals for blame but it’s more involved than that… But I’m sure we have more credible people, with more nous and knowledge in this department, than before. And what gives me most confidence… is that it’s all led by Unai… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post villabromsgrove Posted August 5, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted August 5, 2023 I think that on this wet and miserable day we have had one of the most enlightening discussions about Villa's future direction. Posts on this thread and particularly on the "Aaron Ramsey" thread have highlighted the position that we are now in. It's five years since NSWE told us they intended to make Villa top six contenders and they've done it. Monchi has just confirmed that Emery and he will continue to strengthen our squad in order to carry out our owners plan. Up the Villa! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steero113 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 1 hour ago, useless said: I'd ban them from signing any more players should be put under a transfer embargo for selling Aaron Ramsey our best academy player who is more than good enough to be part of our first team squad. This is the definition of s**tting the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villabromsgrove Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 useless, you're one of my favourite posters. I feel your pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jas10 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 26 minutes ago, villabromsgrove said: I think that on this wet and miserable day we have had one of the most enlightening discussions about Villa's future direction. Posts on this thread and particularly on the "Aaron Ramsey" thread have highlighted the position that we are now in. It's five years since NSWE told us they intended to make Villa top six contenders and they've done it. Monchi has just confirmed that Emery and he will continue to strengthen our squad in order to carry out our owners plan. Up the Villa! I enjoy your positive posts Yeah, I think we’re finally acting like a “big club” again… And I really do believe that the solution, and what’s been lacking and regularly held us back in the past, is the appointment of a genuinely top class manager who excels in all areas including COACHING… Maybe there’s a point to debating over whether to invest more in a quality manager than on spending loads on players… even better if you can do both We’ve made many embarrassing appointments in the past… but we’ve also signed a lot of dross too This is one of the few times (imo) we’ve got it “right” and probably the “most right” ever Let the good times roll, all faith and trust in King Unai… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 On 04/08/2023 at 11:02, Tommo_b said: Think you’ve got that wrong, Brighton don’t have to sell any of their best players, they sign them with the mutual agreement that they will sell the player if the player wants to leave but only at what is a fair valuation in Brightons eyes, see Caicedo. Don’t get me wrong our transfer business has been good for 1 season, before that we lost Grealish and bought in Bailey, Ings and was it Buendia…? But Brightons transfer dealings has been impeccable, Watch out for a player called Adringa in their squad this season, touted as the next £100 million Brighton player. I am not saying that Brighton's transfer history isn't impressive - but what I am saying is that it looks better because they (have to) sell their better players (because they can't really offer those players what they want) and so that shows as actual profit. For a club like them it is a brilliant approach - buy good young players, develop them, reap the rewards of them doing well in the shirt and sell for a profit. But to date they've never sold a single player for £100m, not even close (although obviously that might change any time!). But I really don't agree that their success is massively better than ours. The big difference is that we've been able (so far) to offer our better players an incentive to stay. Our model is much more to buy up and coming players and have them do really well in our first XI for 5+ seasons and to sell them when we're upgrading on them rather than selling them when their value is highest. Just out of interest (and figures are from Transfermarkt so may or may not be accurate) the comparison of the XI most valuable players of the two teams since 2020 (ignoring new paid signings in this window) is: Brighton: Caicedo - €75m Cucurella - €65m - SOLD White - €58m - SOLD Mac Allister - €42m - SOLD Estupinan - €32m Mitoma - €32m Ferguson - €30m Bissouma - €29m - SOLD Webster - €25m Trossard - €24m - SOLD Sanchez - €23m - SOLD Aston Villa: Grealish - €117m - SOLD Ramsey - €42m Luiz - €40m Kamara - €30m Martinez - €28m McGinn - €27m Tielemans - €25m Konsa - €25m Cash - €25m Mings - €22m Carlos - €20m I've not included: Watkins (€40m), Buendia (€28m), Bailey (€28m) in our numbers as the values are more or less the same as the purchase price and so they really only reflect that we've had more purchasing power. I'd say that in general (Caicedo excepted as I think his value has been increased due to reported bids) the value of the unsold players in both teams is probably undercooked. I can't see us accepting less than Mac Allister for Ramsey, Luiz or Kamara and think that all three would be much closer to the €50 - 60 mark and beyond. Similarly, I wouldn't expect us to look to sell Watkins at anything below €75m. Obviously, the figures above don't include the transfer fees paid and so if the "value" is almost the same (based on the assumption that we've got more underbaked valuations) we have almost certainly spent more money bringing the players in. That said Grealish, Ramsey, Luiz, Kamara, McGinn, Tielemans and Konsa are still around €30 million combined and yet are now valued at over €300 million (even accounting for that figure to probably be on the conservative side). I guess my main point is that Brighton's transfer business tends to get applauded because they've made actual money on their best incoming signings and so that shows as a big + on the books. Whereas ours tends to get criticised because our best buys are still an integral part of our first team squad, don't show as a big + on the books (which would more than compensate for some of the less profitable sales) and so people talk more about our total transfer spend and / or the net after sales without taking into consideration the asset value of the squad. I don't know what the estimated value of the squad that won promotion was (bearing in mind those that were on loan / out of contract) - but TransferMrkt say that our first XI is now worth just under €600m. So I don't think we've done that badly. If the owners needed to they could quickly recuperate a lot of the money the club has spent on transfers during that period. The point is that they don't need to. Their interest is more in the value of the club overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderball Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 (edited) 54 minutes ago, villa4europe said: My point was the way monchi describes it sounds brilliant... But also exactly like what we did with lange / suso / purslow / Smith / Gerrard I hate the whole "definitely a purslow signing" criticism, don't think thats how we've ever operated There was some rumblings of differing of opinion with Purslow/Suso? But I am sure there is a collaborative approach to targets currently: From that Marca interview: ”We don't have regular meetings, but we have breakfast together, we eat together, we have our offices next to each other. We get to know what Unai needs on a day-to-day basis. He marks the profiles and the style of the player and we give him names and he evaluates and we come to the conclusion and we sign.” Edited August 5, 2023 by thunderball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jas10 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 1 minute ago, villabromsgrove said: useless, you're one of my favourite posters. I feel your pain. Can understand his emotion, but I hope he was joking and not serious about banning any more signings Aaron wouldn’t be leaving permanently anyway, unless he flattered to deceive… If he impresses, with the added bonus of getting significant game time and development in the PL (?!), we can bring him back home… I’d look at it as more of a loan than him being sent away… we won’t be able to give him the game time in this league that the likes of Burnley would offer… A similar sort of deal may be a good idea for someone like Archer too, if Unai doesn’t think he’s ready… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderball Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, allani said: I am not saying that Brighton's transfer history isn't impressive - but what I am saying is that it looks better because they (have to) sell their better players (because they can't really offer those players what they want) and so that shows as actual profit. For a club like them it is a brilliant approach - buy good young players, develop them, reap the rewards of them doing well in the shirt and sell for a profit. But to date they've never sold a single player for £100m, not even close (although obviously that might change any time!). But I really don't agree that their success is massively better than ours. The big difference is that we've been able (so far) to offer our better players an incentive to stay. Our model is much more to buy up and coming players and have them do really well in our first XI for 5+ seasons and to sell them when we're upgrading on them rather than selling them when their value is highest. Just out of interest (and figures are from Transfermarkt so may or may not be accurate) the comparison of the XI most valuable players of the two teams since 2020 (ignoring new paid signings in this window) is: Brighton: Caicedo - €75m Cucurella - €65m - SOLD White - €58m - SOLD Mac Allister - €42m - SOLD Estupinan - €32m Mitoma - €32m Ferguson - €30m Bissouma - €29m - SOLD Webster - €25m Trossard - €24m - SOLD Sanchez - €23m - SOLD Aston Villa: Grealish - €117m - SOLD Ramsey - €42m Luiz - €40m Kamara - €30m Martinez - €28m McGinn - €27m Tielemans - €25m Konsa - €25m Cash - €25m Mings - €22m Carlos - €20m I've not included: Watkins (€40m), Buendia (€28m), Bailey (€28m) in our numbers as the values are more or less the same as the purchase price and so they really only reflect that we've had more purchasing power. I'd say that in general (Caicedo excepted as I think his value has been increased due to reported bids) the value of the unsold players in both teams is probably undercooked. I can't see us accepting less than Mac Allister for Ramsey, Luiz or Kamara and think that all three would be much closer to the €50 - 60 mark and beyond. Similarly, I wouldn't expect us to look to sell Watkins at anything below €75m. Obviously, the figures above don't include the transfer fees paid and so if the "value" is almost the same (based on the assumption that we've got more underbaked valuations) we have almost certainly spent more money bringing the players in. That said Grealish, Ramsey, Luiz, Kamara, McGinn, Tielemans and Konsa are still around €30 million combined and yet are now valued at over €300 million (even accounting for that figure to probably be on the conservative side). I guess my main point is that Brighton's transfer business tends to get applauded because they've made actual money on their best incoming signings and so that shows as a big + on the books. Whereas ours tends to get criticised because our best buys are still an integral part of our first team squad, don't show as a big + on the books (which would more than compensate for some of the less profitable sales) and so people talk more about our total transfer spend and / or the net after sales without taking into consideration the asset value of the squad. I don't know what the estimated value of the squad that won promotion was (bearing in mind those that were on loan / out of contract) - but TransferMrkt say that our first XI is now worth just under €600m. So I don't think we've done that badly. If the owners needed to they could quickly recuperate a lot of the money the club has spent on transfers during that period. The point is that they don't need to. Their interest is more in the value of the club overall. If the measure is on running a football club to make money they are arguably more successful at the moment. But that isn’t the measure. I guess the test is who gets Champions League, higher average league position and silverware over the next 5 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderball Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jas10 said: Can understand his emotion, but I hope he was joking and not serious about banning any more signings Aaron wouldn’t be leaving permanently anyway, unless he flattered to deceive… If he impresses, with the added bonus of getting significant game time and development in the PL (?!), we can bring him back home… I’d look at it as more of a loan than him being sent away… we won’t be able to give him the game time in this league that the likes of Burnley would offer… A similar sort of deal may be a good idea for someone like Archer too, if Unai doesn’t think he’s ready… It’s like a pawn shop, using the capital for something better to enable you to go back and repurchase your item in the future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jas10 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, thunderball said: It’s like a pawn shop, using the capital for something better to enable you to go back and repurchase your item in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Just now, thunderball said: If the measure is on running a football club to make money they are arguably more successful at the moment. But that isn’t the measure. I guess the test is who gets Champions League, higher average league position and silverware over the next 5 years? At the moment they've also been more successful at the latter in recent seasons. And let's be fair they've done / are doing a superb job for a club of the size and "pull" of a club like Brighton. I'm really not *****ing on their parade at all. My point is along your second bit - that our transfer "success" is overlooked in that it has helped the owners realise their ambitious (some might say ridiculous) plan to take a Championship team to promotion, avoiding relegation, consolidating itself in the PL and getting into the battle for European places within 5 seasons. A lot of our best signings are still key components in our developing plan and in the plan that the owners and Emery are forming for the next 3 - 5 years. A lot of our other signings might not have made big profits on the balance sheet but the majority played an important role in helping us achieve the plan. The number of BAD signings is (I think) relatively small - certainly nothing out of the ordinary when you look at most other PL teams - and most of those fall into a specific niche (which is a fault that I don't think Monchi or Emery will fall into moving forwards). I do think that there is too much negativity around the fact that we've moved from the squads that Steve Bruce inherited / built to our current squad in super-fast time. You don't do that if your recruitment is as **** as (some) people keep suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post villabromsgrove Posted August 5, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted August 5, 2023 Just now, Jas10 said: I enjoy your positive posts Yeah, I think we’re finally acting like a “big club” again… And I really do believe that the solution, and what’s been lacking and regularly held us back in the past, is the appointment of a genuinely top class manager who excels in all areas including COACHING… Maybe there’s a point to debating over whether to invest more in a quality manager than on spending loads on players… even better if you can do both We’ve made many embarrassing appointments in the past… but we’ve also signed a lot of dross too This is one of the few times (imo) we’ve got it “right” and probably the “most right” ever Let the good times roll, all faith and trust in King Unai… Cheers. I think it is going to take some of us time to come to terms with using the Academy as a vehicle to mitigate FFP, but we have to because our current position has put us squarely on the launch pad to target Champions League football. This is an unmissable chance that has been beyond our grasp previously because of the constraints of FFP. That becomes far less constraining if we follow the course that Monchi and Emery appear to have put us on. I feel for 'useless' because he's watched these young players develop for years and it must be tough to see the consequences of hard cash becoming so important to the club, but it has to happen if we're to fulfil our dreams. I have to declare a personal interest. I'm 74 years of age and I've supported Villa since the mid 1950's. I would dearly love to see us return to the halcyon days of 1982 when we briefly reached the top of European Football. Our current AVFC set up and clear positive plan is light years ahead of anything we had in 1982 (imo), so I'm fully supportive of Emery/Monchi taking hard decisions in the best interest of what is now an impressive Villa business. If we fall short of our ambitions Villa will still have my full support, but in the meantime we will have enjoyed an exciting ride. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jas10 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Just now, villabromsgrove said: Cheers. I think it is going to take some of us time to come to terms with using the Academy as a vehicle to mitigate FFP, but we have to because our current position has put us squarely on the launch pad to target Champions League football. This is an unmissable chance that has been beyond our grasp previously because of the constraints of FFP. That becomes far less constraining if we follow the course that Monchi and Emery appear to have put us on. I feel for 'useless' because he's watched these young players develop for years and it must be tough to see the consequences of hard cash becoming so important to the club, but it has to happen if we're to fulfil our dreams. I have to declare a personal interest. I'm 74 years of age and I've supported Villa since the mid 1950's. I would dearly love to see us return to the halcyon days of 1982 when we briefly reached the top of European Football. Our current AVFC set up and clear positive plan is light years ahead of anything we had in 1982 (imo), so I'm fully supportive of Emery/Monchi taking hard decisions in the best interest of what is now an impressive Villa business. If we fall short of our ambitions Villa will still have my full support, but in the meantime we will have enjoyed an exciting ride. Starting to wonder and get excited at the thought of what kind of player we’re bringing in if indeed we’re sending Aaron to Burnley to “make room” in more ways than one… It’s nice and even more assuring to read these sort of comments from the older and more knowledgeable supporters such as yourself… gives more faith and belief that we are on the right track… especially when you’ve seen so many of our ups and downs as a club… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 14 minutes ago, thunderball said: It’s like a pawn shop, using the capital for something better to enable you to go back and repurchase your item in the future. Brilliantly said. But there will be plenty of people who (assuming any of this happens) will say that we sold him for £12m and bought him back for £25m so made a £13m loss - without taking into consideration that we won't have paid his wages in the meantime, that maybe we used that £12m to help buy a player that we either make a £30m profit on (in which case we are still £17m up on the deals) and / or a player who helped us do well in the league / cups and as a result earn more money from gate receipts, prize funds, sponsorship, TV money etc, etc. Also assuming he does well we'll be buying back a player with more first team experience in the PL. And if he only does OK but we don't re-sign him, we've given a local lad and academy player all the training and support needed to forge a good career as a footballer. That's still going to be a success when it comes to recruiting players for our academy - if you don't make it at Villa then you've still got a good chance of making it at a very good level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villabromsgrove Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, allani said: Brilliantly said. But there will be plenty of people who (assuming any of this happens) will say that we sold him for £12m and bought him back for £25m so made a £13m loss - without taking into consideration that we won't have paid his wages in the meantime, that maybe we used that £12m to help buy a player that we either make a £30m profit on (in which case we are still £17m up on the deals) and / or a player who helped us do well in the league / cups and as a result earn more money from gate receipts, prize funds, sponsorship, TV money etc, etc. Also assuming he does well we'll be buying back a player with more first team experience in the PL. And if he only does OK but we don't re-sign him, we've given a local lad and academy player all the training and support needed to forge a good career as a footballer. That's still going to be a success when it comes to recruiting players for our academy - if you don't make it at Villa then you've still got a good chance of making it at a very good level. This is the frustrating thing about FFP regulations. NSWE definitely do not need the money from player sales to buy more top quality players, but FFP requires them to produce money from sales rather than just provide unlimited funds as they would be well able to do.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, villabromsgrove said: Cheers. I think it is going to take some of us time to come to terms with using the Academy as a vehicle to mitigate FFP, but we have to because our current position has put us squarely on the launch pad to target Champions League football. This is an unmissable chance that has been beyond our grasp previously because of the constraints of FFP. That becomes far less constraining if we follow the course that Monchi and Emery appear to have put us on. I feel for 'useless' because he's watched these young players develop for years and it must be tough to see the consequences of hard cash becoming so important to the club, but it has to happen if we're to fulfil our dreams. I have to declare a personal interest. I'm 74 years of age and I've supported Villa since the mid 1950's. I would dearly love to see us return to the halcyon days of 1982 when we briefly reached the top of European Football. Our current AVFC set up and clear positive plan is light years ahead of anything we had in 1982 (imo), so I'm fully supportive of Emery/Monchi taking hard decisions in the best interest of what is now an impressive Villa business. If we fall short of our ambitions Villa will still have my full support, but in the meantime we will have enjoyed an exciting ride. I would go further than this and say that this type of deal (if indeed it does happen) is not just about mitigating FFP and making money. But this is also about supporting, coaching, training, nurturing local kids and giving them the best possible skills to forge a successful career in football. Sometimes that will be at elite level (Jack), sometimes it will be at Villa (Jacob), sometimes it will be within the PL or similar level and sometimes it might "only" be the Championship, League One, League Two, etc. But a successful Academy will attract more youngsters to join and will also mean that more clubs will be looking to loan or sign our Academy players because the Academy has a reputation for developing excellent players with a good attitude. I think it is easy to overlook the fact the "human" side of a successful Academy. Hell - even if players don't make it into the professional game, hopefully their time with Villa will have taught them a lot about themselves, helped them grow as people and give them some of the skills / attitude that they need to make a success of their lives outside of professional sport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 1 minute ago, villabromsgrove said: This is the frustrating thing about FFP regulations. NSWE definitely do not need the money from player sales to buy more top quality players, but FFP requires them to produce money from sales rather than just provide unlimited funds as they would be well able to do.. Absolutely. As I have always said - FFP (in its current guise) has nothing to do with fair play at all. It is all about protecting clubs like Liverpool, AC Milan, Real Madrid, etc, etc by making it harder for other clubs to challenge them. Ironically, what it means is that it makes it harder for well-run clubs managed by good business people to grow and become successful and makes it easier for "dodgy" owners looking for a new shiny toy that they then get bored off and just throw away (exactly the type of owners that FFP said they were trying to prevent) who can find all kinds of dodgy loopholes to get around existing regulations. It will be interesting to see whether the threat of the Saudi league means that British / European clubs abandon FFP (as it saddles them with following rules that the Saudi clubs don't have to follow) or go the other way and actually try and ensure that a more level playing field for all clubs is introduced in the interest of protecting the integrity of the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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