ender4 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 7 hours ago, MSvillain said: Saw this posted on Twitter, I’m not a negative Nancy but even this has me a little worried! https://editorial.uefa.com/resources/028a-1a2f899177e2-b3619612eaa4-1000/uefaeuropeanclubfinanceinvestmentlandscape_150224.pdf That UEFA link (page 37) shows Villa’s operating loss at -39 million and -89 million transfer loss (page 41) in 2023. Not sure how we’ve spent so much but the rumours about the hole for this season might be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 hours ago, Rich192 said: I believe our financial statements for the year ending 2023 have to be submitted by the end of this month They were due mid January because PL wants to hand out points deductions well before end of season Forest and Everton(second breach but for same thing) were only clubs in breach of P & S rules and points deductions haven't been decided on yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 (edited) They will have meant a 3 year loss of €138m before your allowable deductions which would mean in 22/23 loss of £49m loss before deductions. Which would be around £25m towards allowable losses. A loss of €138m in one season for last season when our revenue jumped by coming 7th isn't possible EDIT: Given the one off costs and this loss is before deductions. I think the loss is possible and probably correct Edited February 19 by CVByrne 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 (edited) They have our wages for 2021/22 correct on page 29 and shows a jump in wages of 38% wow that's a huge jump. That kills our finances and I totally missed that scale of jump in forecasting the 2023 accounts. I'd gone for a wage increase of 10% (which tbf was too low). I'm confused now. Page 29 and 31 seem to contradict eachother Edited February 19 by CVByrne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 52 minutes ago, CVByrne said: They have our wages for 2021/22 correct on page 29 and shows a jump in wages of 38% wow that's a huge jump. That kills our finances and I totally missed that scale of jump in forecasting the 2023 accounts. I'd gone for a wage increase of 10% (which tbf was too low). I'm confused now. Page 29 and 31 seem to contradict eachother The season we signed Digne and Coutinho in horror deals also adding Ings to that and hiring a clown of a manager on a big salary Who knew that would be a disaster transfer window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 It's impossible to reconcile their numbers in the presentation, one slide has us at operating loss of -39m down from -19m before player sales. So then they put us at -138m on next page/ It can't figure it out. If the numbers around our wages and the 138m loss are correct. We will 100% be selling this summer to be a net profit on transfers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 (edited) I can reconcile two things with 2022 the profit/loss before tax as zero and our wage bill in 2022. So as I can reconcile both of we assume the figures for the wage growth and the losses for 2023. I'd take our -£96m 2022 figure before sales and add on the following numbers we are fairly sure about. -£52m for wage growth (assume Gerrard pay off and hiring Emery is here) +£22m for increased revenue from finishing 7th +£25m from player sales. Which gives me -£101m and which is -£16m short of £117m loss (€138m). Let's say 6m is increased spending in allowable losses (youth, women's etc..) £10m is increase in Amortisation. That gets us to -£117m with allowable deductions of £28m to get -£89m for 2023 in FFP This would put our 3 year PSR at -£24m +£24m and -£89m very close to the limit. Edited February 19 by CVByrne 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 (edited) I think our wage bill growth and thus losses are inflated by sign on fee for Kamara, the performance bonus players get for higher league position and for qualification for Europe. Plus paying off 3 years left on Gerrard's contract would cost us £15m (he was on £5m per year) and getting Emery and staff in. I think these numbers if true shed new light on why Purslow was got rid of and why Heck is postponing the North Stand Edited February 19 by CVByrne 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 9 hours ago, ender4 said: That UEFA link (page 37) shows Villa’s operating loss at -39 million and -89 million transfer loss (page 41) in 2023. Not sure how we’ve spent so much but the rumours about the hole for this season might be true. I assume the transfer is Amortisation for the year combined with transfer p&l So for €89m loss is £75m loss and we made £25m sales meaning Amortisation of £100m which is a jump from ~£85m in 2022 seems about right. I've no idea how they calculate operating loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Is the UEFA doc looking at the same 12 month period as our stat accounts/PL assessment period would? I haven't properly looked into it but thought I saw something regarding the UEFA rules covering a calendar year by default (though there were exceptions which may apply to us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cb_82 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 It will be another interesting summer, champions league seems the easiest route out alongside a big sale and I suppose where the Ramsey sale comes in due to him being an academy player, as someone said above though its crap for teams like us as how are we ever meant to go forwards if we have to keep selling players January probably told us alot to, Dendocker going out purely to get wages off books alongside Azaz sale for some profit - The new players in will all have been on low wages which is where ultimately the biggest costs come from and not the transfer fees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaVilla Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, CVByrne said: I can reconcile two things with 2022 the profit/loss before tax as zero and our wage bill in 2022. So as I can reconcile both of we assume the figures for the wage growth and the losses for 2023. I'd take our -£96m 2022 figure before sales and add on the following numbers we are fairly sure about. -£52m for wage growth (assume Gerrard pay off and hiring Emery is here) +£22m for increased revenue from finishing 7th +£25m from player sales. Which gives me -£101m and which is -£16m short of £117m loss (€138m). Let's say 6m is increased spending in allowable losses (youth, women's etc..) £10m is increase in Amortisation. That gets us to -£117m with allowable deductions of £28m to get -£89m for 2023 in FFP This would put our 3 year PSR at -£24m +£24m and -£89m very close to the limit. and that includes the Grealish sale doesnt?, when that drops off next season, isnt it almost certain we will need to do something like that sale again to keep spending? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterSw Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 There will be a considerable clear out in the summer of 'deadwood' and loan returns we would hope. Olsen, Chambers, Hause, Lenglet, Dendoncker, Zaniolo, Coutinho and Sanson all likely to be shifted (fingers crossed). Wouldn't be at all surprised if Digne and Cash were sold too, given that we've signed a coupe of young full-backs. That would free up the guts of £750k p/w in wages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, CVByrne said: I can reconcile two things with 2022 the profit/loss before tax as zero and our wage bill in 2022. So as I can reconcile both of we assume the figures for the wage growth and the losses for 2023. I'd take our -£96m 2022 figure before sales and add on the following numbers we are fairly sure about. -£52m for wage growth (assume Gerrard pay off and hiring Emery is here) +£22m for increased revenue from finishing 7th +£25m from player sales. Which gives me -£101m and which is -£16m short of £117m loss (€138m). Let's say 6m is increased spending in allowable losses (youth, women's etc..) £10m is increase in Amortisation. That gets us to -£117m with allowable deductions of £28m to get -£89m for 2023 in FFP This would put our 3 year PSR at -£24m +£24m and -£89m very close to the limit. So working from their numbers. Amortisation increased £17m and revenue increased £23m with allowable exclusions flat at £22m. The more I look at the numbers the more I can see how they can be accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 10 minutes ago, MaVilla said: and that includes the Grealish sale doesnt?, when that drops off next season, isnt it almost certain we will need to do something like that sale again to keep spending? We made a 96m loss before profit on player sales which got us to 0. So if we start at 96m loss we can the add in the changes in costs to calculate our position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 (edited) 12 minutes ago, PeterSw said: There will be a considerable clear out in the summer of 'deadwood' and loan returns we would hope. Olsen, Chambers, Hause, Lenglet, Dendoncker, Zaniolo, Coutinho and Sanson all likely to be shifted (fingers crossed). Wouldn't be at all surprised if Digne and Cash were sold too, given that we've signed a coupe of young full-backs. That would free up the guts of £750k p/w in wages. Yes i think it's a certainty that Digne has to go. We will need a replacement for Dendoncker IF Tim isn't ready to be Kamara's no2. We will also need a replacement for Lenglet and Zaniolo, especially if we are in the CL. I don't know if we can shift Hause and Chambers at all - Chambers rejected 2-3 deals in January so seems like he's happy to just stay here and collect his wage. Hopefully the Coutinho loan is definitely for 2 years with no option to send him back to us. It's going to be a tight summer, unless we gamble on the extra £50m CL income sustaining us and assume we qualify again the next year. Edited February 19 by ender4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 40 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said: Is the UEFA doc looking at the same 12 month period as our stat accounts/PL assessment period would? I haven't properly looked into it but thought I saw something regarding the UEFA rules covering a calendar year by default (though there were exceptions which may apply to us). Calendar year is only for squad cost rule. I believe the accounts are published ones for financial years as they quote previous years for 2022 before rules came in and quote numbers for us that tie to our 2022 accounts I still don't understand the two pages where they quote wages twice and different levels. It's still confusing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East London Villa Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, ender4 said: Yes i think it's a certainty that Digne has to go. We will need a replacement for Dendoncker IF Tim isn't ready to be Kamara's no2. We will also need a replacement for Lenglet and Zaniolo, especially if we are in the CL. I don't know if we can shift Hause and Chambers at all - Chambers rejected 2-3 deals in January so seems like he's happy to just stay here and collect his wage. Hopefully the Coutinho loan is definitely for 2 years with no option to send him back to us. It's going to be a tight summer, unless we gamble on the extra £50m CL income sustaining us and assume we qualify again the next year. Lenglet and Zaniolo were cover for Mings and Buendia. They won't be replaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, East London Villa said: Lenglet and Zaniolo were cover for Mings and Buendia. They won't be replaced. Oh true. I guess it depends whether both come back as good as they were before. I assume we must have got insurance covering their wages whilst they've been out so that offset the wage cost for Lenglet and Zaniolo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, ender4 said: Yes i think it's a certainty that Digne has to go. We will need a replacement for Dendoncker IF Tim isn't ready to be Kamara's no2. We will also need a replacement for Lenglet and Zaniolo, especially if we are in the CL. I don't know if we can shift Hause and Chambers at all - Chambers rejected 2-3 deals in January so seems like he's happy to just stay here and collect his wage. Hopefully the Coutinho loan is definitely for 2 years with no option to send him back to us. We've seen a clear drive to lower wage bill. Younger players coming in this window on lower wages relative to players in squad they will replace. So Sousa and Ned as our fullback understudy to Moreno and Cash. Means Digne and Chambers leaving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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