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Trite Observations About the Housing Market


mjmooney

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7 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I think this is a very hot topic that will show huge breaks between generations. I started off with a minging flat in Erdington when I got out of uni in the late 70's, it cost me literally all my money a month to keep up with the interest alone, but after a hell of a lot of graft and work I managed to pay off enough and work hard at renovating so that I could sell that flat and move to a nicer semi in Tadley in Hampshire. I got a job in Twickenham and sat on the train for what felt like an eternity for my commute. After about 5 years of doing what I did with my original flat I flipped again and moved to a little village just outside Winchester. All in all it took me over 20 years to get to a decent place - and I had so many sleepless nights about how to manage to get there.

I get that it is a lot harder for young people to get on the ladder these days, but I really don't see the same sort of spirit to move anywhere, and I mean anywhere, to get a job and a place to live these days as back then. From my year 10-11 in a small school outside Dudley only 1 of my friends have stayed in the area. The rest have scattered throughout the UK and the world. That is what we had to do to get on the ladder. When I look at my kids' friends and their kids again I see very little urgency in getting on the ladder unless it's by skipping those horrible 10 years that I had to go through. The thing is that a ladder doesn't start half way up. That might sound harsh but it is reality - the best advice I ever gave my daughter was to move to Reading to find a job and stop looking in Winchester. She's now got a great job and have been given the opportunity to work in Southampton - none of which would happen if she insisted on working 5 minutes from our door.

Just on a personal note which village just outside Winchester?  Both my children were born in Royal Hampshire Hospital and I commuted everyday for 10 years into London from a sleepy village in Wiltshire?  Pm if more appropriate.

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1 minute ago, Ingram85 said:

We all have to work hard, sacrifice and go without to try and get on the ladder, we all bloody do that not just you but the argument is that it shouldn't be this **** hard!

I fully agree mate, and I know that the people that I have in my circles are probably not a representation of the average working family in the UK. My point being that the people of my generation have probably also coddled our kids too much and let them stay at home with all the comforts without pushing them in the right way. We've let the system become what it is as we are essentially the older, richer generation and the young are now paying, or for the rich kids, enjoying, the fruits of their parent's labour. I'm hoping that the younger generations will have something similar to what my generation had in the late 80's - early 90's where there was a golden gap to get on the ladder.

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3 minutes ago, Sid4ever said:

Just on a personal note which village just outside Winchester?  Both my children were born in Royal Hampshire Hospital and I commuted everyday for 10 years into London from a sleepy village in Wiltshire?  Pm if more appropriate.

I guess the closest place on the map is Winnall, I live just on the other side of the m3 up on the side of the big fields going down towards Winchester. We must've been on the same train a few times. :)

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6 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I guess the closest place on the map is Winnall, I live just on the other side of the m3 up on the side of the big fields going down towards Winchester. We must've been on the same train a few times. :)

M3 Junction 9 just by the Tesco Extra? :ph34r:

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4 minutes ago, Sid4ever said:

M3 Junction 9 just by the Tesco Extra? :ph34r:

Yep, should I be getting a guard dog? It does take me a while to roll down the hill to tesco extra though, so hopefully you've not identified my abode yet. 

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52 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I fully agree mate, and I know that the people that I have in my circles are probably not a representation of the average working family in the UK. My point being that the people of my generation have probably also coddled our kids too much and let them stay at home with all the comforts without pushing them in the right way. We've let the system become what it is as we are essentially the older, richer generation and the young are now paying, or for the rich kids, enjoying, the fruits of their parent's labour. I'm hoping that the younger generations will have something similar to what my generation had in the late 80's - early 90's where there was a golden gap to get on the ladder.

Do you actually have kids, or are you just speaking of kids in general? 

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1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

I'm hoping that the younger generations will have something similar to what my generation had in the late 80's - early 90's where there was a golden gap to get on the ladder.

You mean a housing price crash of a nominal 20% or so?

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2 minutes ago, snowychap said:

You mean a housing price crash of a nominal 20% or so?

Pretty much. It was a golden time of really big increases in wage mixed with a still pretty stable housing market. The generation after me got this window right as they got their first jobs. It's all luck really. I think 91 was probably the best year to buy if I remember correctly.

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I graduated in 08.

It was shit, and has been hard.

If my old man hadn't been able to help and teach me how to "do up" a ex council house, then id have struggled.

You can put your little violins back now.

Conversely I have friends 5 years older than me who bought their 1st houses in 03, and sold them for more than double in 04.. bastards lol.

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8 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Pretty much. It was a golden time of really big increases in wage mixed with a still pretty stable housing market. The generation after me got this window right as they got their first jobs. It's all luck really. I think 91 was probably the best year to buy if I remember correctly.

So rather than sorting out a market that doesn't appear to satisfactorily allocate resources, you'd prefer a situation where people already overstretched are utterly **** just so other lucky ones (like you, as you claim, in the 'late 80s - early 90s') can get lucky and make gains? A cry for boom and bust, if you will - just as long as you're not left crying.

Seems like a clear example of market failure (and more) to me.

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Just now, snowychap said:

So rather than sorting out a market that doesn't appear to satisfactorily allocate resources, you'd prefer a situation where people already overstretched are utterly **** just so other lucky ones (like you, as you claim, in the 'late 80s - early 90s') can get lucky and make gains? A hope for boom and bust, if you will.

Seems like a clear example of market failure (and more) to me.

My hope is for wages to catch up to the market and for the London bubble to burst. Once that bubble bursts the rest of us around the country will see an immediate normalisation. The market is being propped up by London to such an extent that nothing else really matters. At the same time I don't really condone taking people's property away just because they were lucky. I'm sure the younger generations are going to be lucky in other aspects as well, like lack of conflict, information, technology. We're at the tail end of the best period our country has ever had - we just need the housing market to calm down.

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We put £50 each into my kid's bank account every month because of how shit the housing situation is at the moment. They should have about £20k by the time they are 21 but that might not get them anywhere by that time. I just feel like I have to at least try and give them a head start.

We got very lucky, we got a headstart from family members helping out when we were 21 and after making profit on our first house and getting the new one for a good price, we have a good equity. 

My advice to people who want to save/buy is do not get stuck in the renting game unless you absolutely have to. Live with your parents as long as you can, save what you can and try and get on the property ladder as soon as possible. It was shit for us at the beginning, 7% interest paying £750 a month on a 2 bed semi. Now we pay the same for a 4 bed house in a much better area.

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18 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

My hope is for wages to catch up to the market and for the London bubble to burst. Once that bubble bursts the rest of us around the country will see an immediate normalisation. The market is being propped up by London to such an extent that nothing else really matters. At the same time I don't really condone taking people's property away just because they were lucky. I'm sure the younger generations are going to be lucky in other aspects as well, like lack of conflict, information, technology. We're at the tail end of the best period our country has ever had - we just need the housing market to calm down.

What the arsing hell are you going on about?

Your hope is for (something similar to) prices to fall a nominal 20% (what that was in real terms, I don't know). You've told us that in your previous post.

Hoping that wages 'catch up to the market' (what do you even mean by that - that wage increases start to match property price increases?) and for a bubble to burst that leads to some sort of normalization that is also the 'housing market calming down' looks like a lot of words thrown randomly in to a post without the slightest bit of thought.

 

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Just now, snowychap said:

What the arsing hell are you going on about?

Your hope is for (something similar to) prices to fall a nominal 20% (what that was in real terms, I don't know). You've told us that in your previous post.

Hoping that wages 'catch up to the market' (what do you even mean by that - that wage increases start to match propoerty price increases?) and for a bubble to burst that leads to some sort of normalization that is also the 'housing market calming down' looks like a lot of words thrown randomly in to a post without the slightest bit of thought.

 

I would like for the bubble that is the London housing market to fall back to a normal level, probably by 20% or so on the mean sale these days. You've answered my wage increase point above. People need to be able to afford the rises in mean house pricing, just like their pay check needs to keep up with the rise in food prices, inflation, utilities etc. Points for tone though mate.

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9 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I would like for the bubble that is the London housing market to fall back to a normal level, probably by 20% or so on the mean sale these days. You've answered my wage increase point above. People need to be able to afford the rises in mean house pricing, just like their pay check needs to keep up with the rise in food prices, inflation, utilities etc. Points for tone though mate.

It's a cheque, 'mate'.

No points for content. You've posted crap that isn't even consistent with the other crap you've posted.

As someone else much wiser than I am posted a while back, you make comments with an air of authority that the detail just doesn't support.

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After graduating in 2002 I have worked around the country, recently came to the point I thought I'd buy, late to get on property ladder here, many many years of dead money paid on rent but hey, nomadic depending on work. Got into huge financial mess during recession which took more hard work to get out of. Bringing me to my point. 

What to do with the deposit I saved and worked my ass off for. I spent a month viewing places around Gloucestershire but off my single applicant mortgage, as a first time buyer, what I could get loaned to me was depressing. My income is "ok" and my deposit was very decent but even so, it depressed the hell out of me looking at what bricks and mortar my money would get me in Gloucester and I definitely couldn't afford Cheltenham. Added to the fact I don't on the whole like Gloucester too much. 

Fast forward time, I accidentally come across a property on rightmove. A small character 2 bedroom cottage in rural Herefordshire built in 1780. When this place is done up the way I want, it will be my dream home. Maybe extend in long term. Decent plot surrounded by fields and amazing panoramic countryside views. Seven houses in our village. Finally, "home". This might sound like I'm showing off above. I'm not. It's a SMALL two bedder, a modest place but my point is this. It was cheap as f---. It was cheaper by many tens of thousands that what the upper limit of my budget was when looking in Gloucestershire that say was three bedroom maybe semi detached and small garden. 

My advice is, to anyone with a deposit and a mortgage in principle to take a look at an alternate choice. In places such as this, your money stretches further. I don't have kids but the nearest school is six miles away but... on roads that have no traffic, you'd be there in ten mins, 50+ mph roads. 

Ok so my commute time has gone up while I wait for something to emerge here work-wise but even if it doesn't, the drive is amazing scenery through Herefordshire and Ross (until you get to Gloucester). 

Anyway so, as said, in some places such as this you can find little pockets of housing that are cheaper and offer more, at the expense of population density and on-hand infrastructure but so long as you have a car here you're fine. I fully recommend any VTers in a first time buying situation to consider Herefordshire or somewhere similar and see what their money gets for them in comparison to the more expensive and obvious of their choices. This here redneck has struck gold and didn't pay a lot to do so. As said, my budget was similar to any other first time applicant I am certainly not Bill Gates. 

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