Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Brumerican]

I'm with the reds on this one   .

Sainsbury's deserve everything they get .

[peterms]

6 hours ago, Awol said:

Positively identifying the perpetrators & tying them to the GRU is a bit more than nothing

Oh, has that been done?  I must have missed it.  Last I heard, they were saying the two people must have been using false names, ie they don't know who they are.  And the link to GRU seems to be "because we say so".  Oh dear.  A spot of actual evidence, rather than unevidenced claims and sounding off in parliament, would be nice.  Is that too much to ask?  Apparently so.

[Brumerican]

19 minutes ago, peterms said:

Oh, has that been done?  I must have missed it.  Last I heard, they were saying the two people must have been using false names, ie they don't know who they are.  And the link to GRU seems to be "because we say so".  Oh dear.  A spot of actual evidence, rather than unevidenced claims and sounding off in parliament, would be nice.  Is that too much to ask?  Apparently so.

5 had them months ago.

It's the timing I want to know about.

[Awol]

Just now, peterms said:

Oh, has that been done?  I must have missed it.  Last I heard, they were saying the two people must have been using false names, ie they don't know who they are.  And the link to GRU seems to be "because we say so".  Oh dear.  A spot of actual evidence, rather than unevidenced claims and sounding off in parliament, would be nice.  Is that too much to ask?  Apparently so.

The combined analysis of UK agencies (signals, human and technical intelligence) has concluded these guys are GRU. They flew to and from Moscow on genuine Russian passports. We, as punters, have two options: we accept the integrated assessment of our police and intelligence services, having pieced together sufficient evidence for the CPS to charge these miscreants with murder, or we reject all of that and chose to believe Russia and their shills in the West, because...what?

If you want all of the analysis including secret methods of collection laid out in public to satisfy the latter group (who will never be satisfied) then yes, you are asking too much. Just the initial assessment was enough for most EU countries to conclude they did it and hoof dozens of Russian diplomats from their capitals. Ditto the US and Canada. Do you reckon they did that on a whim, or maybe the secret intelligence shared with their professional intelligence agencies the time closed the deal?

They've got these **** arriving in UK traced their movements in UK, found traces of nerve agent in their London hotel room, clocked their recce of Salisbury and then again the following day in the vicinity of the Skripal's house when the attack was carried out, before they GTFO immediately through Heathrow and back to Vlad's loving arms.

Anyone still believing Russia's version of events (or one of the 30-40 separate disinformation narratives they've advanced) is doing so because they want to, not because of a lack of evidence.  

  

  

[peterms]

2 minutes ago, Brumerican said:

5 had them months ago.

It's the timing I want to know about.

Timing is interesting.  Like two people caught on Gatwick cctv, separately, only one of them in shot, in the exact same spot, timestamped to the exact same second; physically impossible.

Like novichok being identified in a London horel 4 months ago, but not a word being mentioned until now.  Salisbury police cars are being buried in contaminated waste sites because they are apparently so hazardous, but a hotel with "small traces" of novichock, the deadliest poison in the history of the world , can carry on admitting guests.  Right.

Those baby wipes must be more powerful than I imagined.

[Brumerican]

3 minutes ago, peterms said:

Timing is interesting.  Like two people caught on Gatwick cctv, separately, only one of them in shot, in the exact same spot, timestamped to the exact same second; physically impossible.

Like novichok being identified in a London horel 4 months ago, but not a word being mentioned until now.  Salisbury police cars are being buried in contaminated waste sites because they are apparently so hazardous, but a hotel with "small traces" of novichock, the deadliest poison in the history of the world , can carry on admitting guests.  Right.

Those baby wipes must be more powerful than I imagined.

The politest thing I can say here is I think you are wrong.

They did it .

There is NO doubt.

[peterms]

2 minutes ago, Awol said:

We, as punters, have two options: we accept the integrated assessment of our police and intelligence services, having pieced together sufficient evidence for the CPS to charge these miscreants with murder, or we reject all of that and chose to believe Russia and their shills in the West, because...what? 

So we accept what Mrs May, a serial withholder of key information even from her closest allies, tells us, or we side with the damn Russkies?  Actually, we can remain sceptical about both.

2 minutes ago, Awol said:

Just the initial assessment was enough for most EU countries to conclude they did it and hoof dozens of Russian diplomats from their capitals. Ditto the US and Canada. Do you reckon they did that on a whim, or maybe the secret intelligence shared with their professional intelligence agencies the time closed the deal? 

EU countries acted in solidairty, as we would expect, not on the basis of evidence.  None has been supplied.

I see the MP for the Salisbury area is quoting expulsions of embassy staff as evidence that other countries accept the Russians did it.  It's a circular argument,  it ignores other reasons why they might go along with such action, in short, it's no kind of evidence at all, just mood music.  You must know this.

3 minutes ago, Awol said:

They've got these **** arriving in UK traced their movements in UK, found traces of nerve agent in their London hotel room, clocked their recce of Salisbury and then again the following day in the vicinity of the Skripal's house when the attack was carried out, before they GTFO immediately through Heathrow and back to Vlad's loving arms. 

They have stated (directly or via "sources" quoted in friendly media) that the (supposed) Russians arrived in Salisbury after the Skripals had left for the day, walked to their house,  applied novichok to the door handle apparently without donning hazmat suits but without killing themselves, and the act of applying the poison to the door handle aftef the Skripals had left the house was enough to poison them elsewhere at exactly the same instant several hours later, though they had not returned to the house in the meantime.

Yes, yes, I can see how that would work.

[peterms]

16 minutes ago, Brumerican said:

The politest thing I can say here is I think you are wrong.

They did it .

There is NO doubt.

This is an expression of faith, not a reasoned argument.

But what is the basis for your act of faith?

[Awol]

@peterms Mate, you state no evidence was supplied to EU nations. The EU nations stated they expelled Russian 'diplomats' on the basis of the evidence supplied by the UK.

Your rationalisation is based on a total falsehood.

I'll leave it there. 

[Brumerican]

1 minute ago, peterms said:

This is an expression of faith, not a reasoned argument.

But what is the basis for your act of faith?

Trusting people who I would trust with my life . 

If you've served in Cyprus you'd know what I mean .

[peterms]

11 minutes ago, Awol said:

@peterms Mate, you state no evidence was supplied to EU nations. The EU nations stated they expelled Russian 'diplomats' on the basis of the evidence supplied by the UK.

Your rationalisation is based on a total falsehood.

I'll leave it there. 

There were claims and assertions,  not evidence.  German parliamentarians commented to this effect.

The statement that evidence was provided is, shall we say, not supported by evidence.

I can see why you would want to leave it there.

[Awol]

1 minute ago, peterms said:

There were claims and assertions,  not evidence.  German parliamentarians commented to this effect.

The statement that evidence was provided is, shall we say, not supported by evidence.

I can see why you would want to leave it there.

**** it i'll bite. German Parliamentarians weren't briefed, Merkel and the BND were, and they believed what they heard.

Let's flip this. What do you think happened? 

[peterms]

13 minutes ago, Brumerican said:

Trusting people who I would trust with my life . 

If you've served in Cyprus you'd know what I mean .

You were in the armed forces, therefore you accept without question what you are told by people in "positions of authority"?  Seriously?  Not accepting that there are thousands of documented cases where such people have lied?  And that you shouldn't place blind trust in people simply because of rhe role they hold?

[Brumerican]

4 minutes ago, peterms said:

There were claims and assertions,  not evidence.  German parliamentarians commented to this effect.

The statement that evidence was provided is, shall we say, not supported by evidence.

I can see why you would want to leave it there.

I don't see AWOL showing such skepticism towards your lasagne recipes.

Sometimes in life people know more about certain things than you do . 

You're experiencing that right now.

[peterms]

1 minute ago, Brumerican said:

I don't see AWOL showing such skepticism towards your lasagne recipes.

Sometimes in life people know more about certain things than you do . 

You're experiencing that right now.

I'm really not.  I'm experiencing people extrapolating wildly from their personal experience, plus their faith in the system and machine that they came to trust, and being a little affronted that others don't share their faith.

[AVFC_Hitz]

59 minutes ago, Brumerican said:

5 had them months ago.

It's the timing I want to know about.

5 will make you get down now.

[peterms]

6 minutes ago, Awol said:

**** it i'll bite. German Parliamentarians weren't briefed, Merkel and the BND were, and they believed what they heard.

Let's flip this. What do you think happened? 

Most likely: S tells tales on nasty oligarchs, who employ ex-service heavies to deal with him.

Second: some connection with the Steele/Orbis/Miller business.

Third: we play ball with rogue elements of the US,  creating an idea that the Russians routinely use chemical warfare, as a precursor to a staged false CW event in Idlib, and before fhat, Ghouta.

Fourth: disregarding all previous protocols and common sense, the Russians decide to punish him again for something he's already been punished for,  and launch a reckless attack with fingerprints pointing back to themselves in a way that will cost them in practical terms for no apparent gain.

All are possible, though with declining levels of credibility.

[Awol]

5 minutes ago, peterms said:

Most likely: S tells tales on nasty oligarchs, who employ ex-service heavies to deal with him.

Second: some connection with the Steele/Orbis/Miller business.

Third: we play ball with rogue elements of the US,  creating an idea that the Russians routinely use chemical warfare, as a precursor to a staged false CW event in Idlib, and before fhat, Ghouta.

Fourth: disregarding all previous protocols and common sense, the Russians decide to punish him again for something he's already been punished for,  and launch a reckless attack with fingerprints pointing back to themselves in a way that will cost them in practical terms for no apparent gain.

All are possible, though with declining levels of credibility.

Okay. What is your evidence for scenarios 1-3? Any evidence at all that you have gleaned would be cool.  I'm assuming you haven't just made them up and there is something to lead you to rank order these scenarios over the painstakingly assembled case put forward by the British authorities?

[Brumerican]

7 minutes ago, peterms said:

I'm really not.  I'm experiencing people extrapolating wildly from their personal experience, plus their faith in the system and machine that they came to trust, and being a little affronted that others don't share their faith.

Not at all . 

I just know a lot more than you do on this particular subject. I may have left the forces but thanks to social media  every bugger I've ever stood on parade with still keeps in touch . Most of those guys are warrant officers now but my closet pal in Cyprus was a Welsh lad in the Royal Intelligence Corps called Craig .  We were Lance Jack's at the time but he's worked his way through the ranks to Captain . (A big deal to go that route)

He's forgotten more about Russian counter ops than you'll ever know and I'll take his word over yours all day, everyday . 

I know better than to ask him shit he's not allowed to divulge but sometimes he'll tell me stuff the public don't know a jot about.

Russia did it fam.

Believe.

[Brumerican]

I understand that the above may read like the most arrogant ITK post ever  but I stand by it .

I'm not trying to impress anybody but when it comes to Russia snide ops my mate isn't just ITK .

He is the know.(At DPM level in Cyprus anyway)