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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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1 hour ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

So basically China want a ceasefire so that Russia can claim what they already hold, and give them time to re arm, and prepare for the next wave. Do they think Ukraine are stupid

They're just teeing up Russia to say Ukraine have been offered negotiations and refused them. 

The bots will spread word all over the Internet that the evil warmongering Ukrainians won't even sit down and negotiate because they want the war to continue. Poor old Russia are not even allowed to offer the olive branch. 

Edited by sidcow
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3 hours ago, sidcow said:

They're just teeing up Russia to say Ukraine have been offered negotiations and refused them. 

The bots will spread word all over the Internet that the evil warmongering Ukrainians won't even sit down and negotiate because they want the war to continue. Poor old Russia are not even allowed to offer the olive branch. 

I hope you are wrong, but I fear you may be right. 

That said, getting Zelenski in a room with Xi might change things. He's a force of nature.

China could stop this war by withdrawing economic support for Putin. From day 1 they were the only ones who ever could (apart from Russia). 

 

Edited by HKP90
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The US president said it is not rational for Beijing to attempt to broker the outcome of the war after it unveiled a 12-point peace plan calling for a ceasefire.

In an interview with ABC News, Mr Biden claimed Vladimir Putin is "applauding" the proposed peace plan, "so how could it be any good?".

He added that he'd seen "nothing in the plan" that would benefit "anyone other than Russia" if it were followed.

Sky News

Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko is to visit China next week, the Chinese foreign ministry has announced.

The visit will take place from 28 February to 2 March.

It comes after Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang said yesterday that his country would be open to working with Belarus to strengthen mutual political trust.

In a phone call with his Belarusian counterpart Sergei Aleinik, he said Beijing would support Minsk in opposing any external interference in its internal affairs.

Sky News

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Is it not more likely than less likely there will have to be a negotiated end to this war? And if so, what will that look like? Personally I don't see Ukraine recovering all of their land, and I could see at some point China and US acting as a guarantor of the end, Russia heavily depleted and Ukraine the most heavily militarised member of the EU.  

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10 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Is it not more likely than less likely there will have to be a negotiated end to this war?

Only when Ukraine is whole again. I don't see how Ukraine agrees otherwise. And at that point, you're dealing with a different Russia, very different

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16 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Is it not more likely than less likely there will have to be a negotiated end to this war? And if so, what will that look like? Personally I don't see Ukraine recovering all of their land, and I could see at some point China and US acting as a guarantor of the end, Russia heavily depleted and Ukraine the most heavily militarised member of the EU.  

Why would Ukraine negotiate (for now at least), especially when the current "peace plan" put out by China effectively gives Russia everything it wants? This is the same China with their "peace plan" that have now invited the Belarusian President (puppet to Putin) to "strengthen mutual political trust" and "support Minsk in opposing any external interference in its internal affairs".  The Russians have no plan and reports today say yet again they have changed their tactics not to capture land but to grind down the Ukrainian Army (they've apparently run out of drones too).  More kit is incoming for Ukraine and it wouldn't surprise me to see huge advances by the Ukrainians this year.  We'll see how things evolve but I don't think there will be a negotiated end anytime soon.

It also wouldn't surprise me to see Putin deposed or suddenly end up in Argentina. 

Edited by trekka
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Sweden confirmed to be delivering 12 of the SV 122, what they call an improved leopard 2 variant. We’re getting close to a brigade’s worth of Leo’s now.

Sweden has a massive armament complex, and will likely try to outdo Germany to be seen as a better partner than Germany.

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Just now, bickster said:

Only when Ukraine is whole again. I don't see how Ukraine agrees otherwise.

5 minutes ago, trekka said:

Why would Ukraine negotiate (for now at least), especially when the "peace plan" put out by China effectively gives Russia everything it wants? This is the same China with their "peace plan" that have now invited the Belarusian President (puppet to Putin) to "strengthen mutual political trust" and "support Minsk in opposing any external interference in its internal affairs".  The Russians have no plan and reports today say yet again they have changed their tactics not to capture land but to grind down the Ukrainian Army (they've apparently run out of drones too).  More kit is incoming for Ukraine and it wouldn't surprise me to see huge advances by the Ukrainians this year.  

It also wouldn't surprise me to see Putin deposed or suddenly end up in Argentina. 

No I don't think negotiation is imminent - but in my mind Ukraine are first and foremost looking for security guarantees for the future, and that this would ultimately be more valuable to them than retaking all of their territory. How that is achieved who knows, but Ukraine clearly welcomed China's input and would like to get the conversation going - but as you say, Ukraine can speed this all up with a few more breakthroughs, I think everyone would be disappointed not to see how the new tanks fare. 

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Ukraine has set up 3 lines of defence.  If the first one falls the troops fall back and begin building a new 3rd line.  Ukraine can slowly retreat for hundreds of miles. Each retreat puts them in a better position for supply and air defences.  But Russia can’t do this.  They have to hold the line without any significant retreats.  

The supply lines to Crimea are a narrow strip of land and an even narrower bridge .   Losing the land supply routes would be an utter disaster. Losing land that put the Crimea bridge in HIMARS range would be a disaster.  
 

 

 

Edited by Mandy Lifeboats
Speeling mishsteaks
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Sorry if already posted (it probably has) but just for comparison to the China "Peace Plan", this is Ukraine's 10 point peace plan:

- Radiation and nuclear safety, focusing on restoring safety around Europe's largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine, which is now-Russian occupied.

- Food security, including protecting and ensuring Ukraine's grain exports to the world's poorest nations.

- Energy security, with focus on price restrictions on Russian energy resources, as well as aiding Ukraine with restoring its power infrastructure, half of which has been damaged by Russian attacks.

- Release of all prisoners and deportees, including war prisoners and children deported to Russia.

- Restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity and Russia reaffirming it according the U.N. Charter, which Zelenskiy said is "not up to negotiations".

- Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, restoration of Ukraine's state borders with Russia.

- Justice, including the establishment of a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes.

- Prevention of ecocide, need for protection of environment, with focus on demining and restoring water treatment facilities.

- Prevention of escalation of conflict, and building security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space, including guarantees for Ukraine.

- Confirmation of the war's end, including a document signed by the involved parties.

Reuters

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1 hour ago, Jareth said:

How that is achieved who knows, but Ukraine clearly welcomed China's input and would like to get the conversation going

That really is a stretch. Zelensky said he'll meet Xi. He'll tell him the same as he's been saying for the last year, that the war ends when Russia removes itself from Ukraine. Right now, there's no way he can say anything else

To not meet Xi, would really be a slap in the face for the Chinese and if as the US currently says that the Chinese are considering sending drones and ammunition to Russia, anything he can do to stop that is good.

I'd say they've only welcomed it in the way that it opens a door to speak to someone face to face and put your point across, nothing more.

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I enjoyed the professor's interview in this piece.

Took no prisoners and thoroughly called out all the BS that Russia was spinning and the IMF/World Bank is regurgitating.

Economy has now shrunk to the size of Chile's apparently.

Edited by AshVilla
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