Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[bickster]

9 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

Can I ask what a leopard does?! Long range missiles? I’m a bit of a noob when it comes to war!

It's a modern Main Battle Tank, its a generation above anything Russia had at the start of the campaign. The most modern tank the Russians used here was the T-90 but even that is just an upgraded T-72

It's targeting and sensor equipment is just miles ahead of the T-90

In the last few months the T-90 doesn't get seen that often in Ukraine, so most of the tanks the Russians are using are further generations behind the Leopard 2 (and Challenger 2 that the UK might send)

 

[magnkarl]

15 minutes ago, bickster said:

It's a modern Main Battle Tank, its a generation above anything Russia had at the start of the campaign. The most modern tank the Russians used here was the T-90 but even that is just an upgraded T-72

It's targeting and sensor equipment is just miles ahead of the T-90

In the last few months the T-90 doesn't get seen that often in Ukraine, so most of the tanks the Russians are using are further generations behind the Leopard 2 (and Challenger 2 that the UK might send)

 

To further on what Bicks has written, the Leopard 2 and the other lighter tanks and AFVs now being sent were developed towards the end of the cold war specifically to counter the T-90. They've undergone major development since then, but the Bradley's being sent were the main protagonists in the Gulf wars where they tore through T-72's like butter. The ironic thing is that most of what Ukraine has been beating Russia with isn't even third grade anti-Russia equipment. The Leopard 2 is. Together with the Bradley it'll kill anything Russia has to offer through smoke, at night, in a snowstorm, with zero visibility. It's what made the Bradley so infamous in the gulf. It could take out Saddam's T tanks during horrible sand-storms while the Iraqis didn't even see the Americans.

The next course of action would be to put Wagner on the international terrorism list. I have no idea why it isn't already, but it'll enable strikes on bases in Africa, shutting down of their operations in many countries etc. They earn their money through gold and diamonds in Africa, so everyone has an interest in shutting them down.

Edited January 12, 2023 by magnkarl

[sidcow]

Don't forget that Russia also has the T-14 Armata.  The bestest tank in the world ever, much like their Jet fighter that was the bestest jet fighter in the world ever.

I expect they've got whole battalions of them just ready to roll out, but they just don't feel like it right now.

[bickster]

As if by magic, a T-90 story appears today. Ukraine captured a T-90S, the export variant. It's not the first instance of an S export variant, destroyed ones have already been seen 

These tanks have a different configuration to the ones the Russians use. Russia doesn't export some of it's tech. It indicates that EITHER Russia is running out of tanks or has a much reduced capability of repairing those that are damaged or mechanically compromised.

On paper Russia should still have a good number of T-90 but clearly something is up as they are now using the export variant. These will either be an order that isn't getting delivered or tanks that were sent back to Russia for servicing and now aren't going back to their owners. Either way, someone's military is going short

Although this was released today, you'd have to imagine that this capture was some time ago, as the location is stated as Kherson oblast and the front line (The Dnipro river) hasn't moved since the liberation of Kherson City.

 

[sidcow]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

These will either be an order that isn't getting delivered or tanks that were sent back to Russia for servicing and now aren't going back to their owners. Either way, someone's military is going short

Either way their customer is not going to be happy so will be less likely to buy Russian again (doubly especially as they seem to keep getting blown to hell by one man and a bazooka) further damaging the Russian economy in future.

[magnkarl]

10 minutes ago, bickster said:

As if by magic, a T-90 story appears today. Ukraine captured a T-90S, the export variant. It's not the first instance of an S export variant, destroyed ones have already been seen 

These tanks have a different configuration to the ones the Russians use. Russia doesn't export some of it's tech. It indicates that EITHER Russia is running out of tanks or has a much reduced capability of repairing those that are damaged or mechanically compromised.

On paper Russia should still have a good number of T-90 but clearly something is up as they are now using the export variant. These will either be an order that isn't getting delivered or tanks that were sent back to Russia for servicing and now aren't going back to their owners. Either way, someone's military is going short

Although this was released today, you'd have to imagine that this capture was some time ago, as the location is stated as Kherson oblast and the front line (The Dnipro river) hasn't moved since the liberation of Kherson City.

 

Word is these are Indian vehicles sent back for refitting. I'm sure India is pleased..

[bickster]

5 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Either way their customer is not going to be happy so will be less likely to buy Russian again (doubly especially as they seem to keep getting blown to hell by one man and a bazooka) further damaging the Russian economy in future.

Depends. Most likely candidate is India. A deal may have been done. You send them back for maintenance, that gives India plausible deniability (even though India actually manufactures them), Russia then uses them and reduces even further the price India pays for oil.

But it still isn't a good look to other export markets

[magnkarl]

42 minutes ago, bickster said:

Depends. Most likely candidate is India. A deal may have been done. You send them back for maintenance, that gives India plausible deniability (even though India actually manufactures them), Russia then uses them and reduces even further the price India pays for oil.

But it still isn't a good look to other export markets

Surely there will be indications inside this thing about where it went? Ukraine will be able to use this as leverage when talking to the real owner. It could be Cyprus, Libya, Venezuela, India, Vietnam or Iraq. My guess is India.

[magnkarl]

Looking at the deepstate map Wagner has moved forward 3km towards Soledar in 36 days at the cost of something like 10.000 soldiers. Prighozin is calling this a monumental success. These guys are just insanely corrupt, evil and dumb. Ukraine has already erected defense lines behind the Bakmuthkovka river and fallen back with much of the 500 soldiers in Soledar, ready to grind another 10.000 neo-nazi cannon fodder down.

Here's hoping that the Russian armed forces start reacting against the frankly idiotic comments from Wagner and start fighting eachother. 

As a side note, there's 95 kilometers to go if Putin wants the rest of Donetsk oblast. Good luck Vlad.

Ukrainian SF has released several videos of two operators clearing a trench of 20+ Russians at night in Bakhmut, using night vision and a drone spotter. They claim they've been doing this every night in the last week. The footage is insane. Looks like something you'd see in an American war film..

Edited January 12, 2023 by magnkarl

[Mandy Lifeboats]

A year ago I was very worried that this conflict could be the start of WW3.  Nearly one year later and I'd say that the threat of this escalating beyond Ukraine's borders is minimal.  

Russia began this war with high expectations of rolling into Kyiv in days, installing a puppet government and returning home as heroes.  Since their initial success its been one disaster after another.  

A year ago Russia had a bigger army than Ukraine, more modern equipment and surrounded Ukraine on 3 sides.  Their failure to get a victory in those conditions shows just how bad its been. 

Putin said " Anyone who interfere with the SMO will face immediate retaliation beyond anything seen in history."   NATO laughed and has been steadily meeting every Russian escalation with increasingly better weapons.   At the time of writing we could be on the verge of seeing main Battle tanks arriving in Ukraine.  That's an amazing step forward but there is still a hell of a lot of equipment in reserve. 

So where can Russia escalate next?   

They could fully mobilise the population. That would cripple the economy and be a dreadful defeat for Putin.  Even with those increased numbers they will struggle to even put rifles in their hands and food in their belly.  Let alone supply them with night vision, air support, secure electronics and all the other things that stop them being cannon fodder. 

As I have explained on here before, there are no such things as battlefield nukes.  They are just small nukes used against military targets without devastating huge areas.  Attacking Ukraine's military with nukes is pointless when they are so close to Russia.  

As long as NATO holds firm with its support, Russia hasn't got a chance in the long term.  Every day that goes by the Russian economy is weakening at the same time as being in an arms race with the world's richest countries.  NATO is bigger and stronger than ever and surrounds Russia on 3 sides.  

The only way out of this is Putin's death.  He can then be portrayed as the madman who caused all of this and take the subsequent blame.  

I think there is a year or 2 of this war left to fight.  But I feel it could have been much, much worse. 

 

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

A year ago I was very worried that this conflict could be the start of WW3.  Nearly one year later and I'd say that the threat of this escalating beyond Ukraine's borders is minimal.  

Russia began this war with high expectations of rolling into Kyiv in days, installing a puppet government and returning home as heroes.  Since their initial success its been one disaster after another.  

A year ago Russia had a bigger army than Ukraine, more modern equipment and surrounded Ukraine on 3 sides.  Their failure to get a victory in those conditions shows just how bad its been. 

Putin said " Anyone who interfere with the SMO will face immediate retaliation beyond anything seen in history."   NATO laughed and has been steadily meeting every Russian escalation with increasingly better weapons.   At the time of writing we could be on the verge of seeing main Battle tanks arriving in Ukraine.  That's an amazing step forward but there is still a hell of a lot of equipment in reserve. 

So where can Russia escalate next?   

They could fully mobilise the population. That would cripple the economy and be a dreadful defeat for Putin.  Even with those increased numbers they will struggle to even put rifles in their hands and food in their belly.  Let alone supply them with night vision, air support, secure electronics and all the other things that stop them being cannon fodder. 

As I have explained on here before, there are no such things as battlefield nukes.  They are just small nukes used against military targets without devastating huge areas.  Attacking Ukraine's military with nukes is pointless when they are so close to Russia.  

As long as NATO holds firm with its support, Russia hasn't got a chance in the long term.  Every day that goes by the Russian economy is weakening at the same time as being in an arms race with the world's richest countries.  NATO is bigger and stronger than ever and surrounds Russia on 3 sides.  

The only way out of this is Putin's death.  He can then be portrayed as the madman who caused all of this and take the subsequent blame.  

I think there is a year or 2 of this war left to fight.  But I feel it could have been much, much worse. 

 

I think we'll need to see either Luhansk or Donetsk city being liberated before Putin cracks and is deposed. It could happen in April, it could happen in 2024. It will happen. The issue for Putin is that the more territory is liberated the more evidence there is of the war crimes they've committed. That said, Russia has very little capability that'll dent a Leopard 2 with 2-3 Bradleys in support. These armoured vehicles are capable of rolling back a line very quickly at night when the Russians have very little to defend themselves with.

[Sid4ever]

4 hours ago, Delphinho123 said:

Can I ask what a leopard does?

A leopard never changes its spots.

[Genie]

27 minutes ago, Sid4ever said:

A leopard never changes its spots.

Once a cheetah always a cheetah.

[avfc1982am]

5 hours ago, magnkarl said:

Looking at the deepstate map Wagner has moved forward 3km towards Soledar in 36 days at the cost of something like 10.000 soldiers. Prighozin is calling this a monumental success. These guys are just insanely corrupt, evil and dumb. Ukraine has already erected defense lines behind the Bakmuthkovka river and fallen back with much of the 500 soldiers in Soledar, ready to grind another 10.000 neo-nazi cannon fodder down.

Here's hoping that the Russian armed forces start reacting against the frankly idiotic comments from Wagner and start fighting eachother. 

As a side note, there's 95 kilometers to go if Putin wants the rest of Donetsk oblast. Good luck Vlad.

Ukrainian SF has released several videos of two operators clearing a trench of 20+ Russians at night in Bakhmut, using night vision and a drone spotter. They claim they've been doing this every night in the last week. The footage is insane. Looks like something you'd see in an American war film..

I've seen that footage.

There is also quite a bit of footage of Ukrainian position being attacked by Russians(not sure where). Sean Odinson has it on his channel. The Russians are in the woods attacking a position, a Russian frags the position and then storms it. 3 guys in the trench 2 badly wounded and an Older guy with a Ukrainian jacket. Anyway the older guy is hesitant to surrender his and keeps saying "friendly" while the Russian is telling him to let go of the weapon, anyway the hesitancy gets all three executed. Apparently, the Ukrainians mistake the attacking Russian as friendly in the convo which was probably through being fragged and disorientated. I've seen reports they're Russian or Wagnerites wearing Ukrainian kit but that sounds like bollox tbh. 

[LondonLax]

11 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I've seen that footage.

There is also quite a bit of footage of Ukrainian position being attacked by Russians(not sure where). Sean Odinson has it on his channel. The Russians are in the woods attacking a position, a Russian frags the position and then storms it. 3 guys in the trench 2 badly wounded and an Older guy with a Ukrainian jacket. Anyway the older guy is hesitant to surrender his and keeps saying "friendly" while the Russian is telling him to let go of the weapon, anyway the hesitancy gets all three executed. Apparently, the Ukrainians mistake the attacking Russian as friendly in the convo which was probably through being fragged and disorientated. I've seen reports they're Russian or Wagnerites wearing Ukrainian kit but that sounds like bollox tbh. 

The Ukrainians have a command structure where many commanders lead their own group of troops with a lot of autonomy. It gives them a lot of flexibility compared with the Russians who are very top down. On the other hand it can lead to situations where the left hand is not acting in coordination with the right had as they are acting independently. 

The report I read from the recent problems in Soledar suggested the reason for the setbacks there was that the Ukrainians were not coordinating properly and actually getting in each other’s way. If you’re hearing talk of confusion and friendly fire it might be related to that.

[avfc1982am]

2 hours ago, LondonLax said:

The Ukrainians have a command structure where many commanders lead their own group of troops with a lot of autonomy. It gives them a lot of flexibility compared with the Russians who are very top down. On the other hand it can lead to situations where the left hand is not acting in coordination with the right had as they are acting independently. 

The report I read from the recent problems in Soledar suggested the reason for the setbacks there was that the Ukrainians were not coordinating properly and actually getting in each other’s way. If you’re hearing talk of confusion and friendly fire it might be related to that.

I don't think that is the case in this video. The video is set in the woods, location unknown. However, all troops Ukrainian are in fixed positions, or defensive. I think this is more a case of soldiers being disorientated and confused when being attacked and overrun. These Ukrainians aren't on the offensive in this video. 

 

 

[magnkarl]

New reports coming in from CNN that Ukraine have retaken the train station and salt mine to the West in Soledar.

Apparently Wagner were too busy taking photos and drinking when it got dark, and as per usual have no night vision. 

[avfc1982am]

I don't know if anybody else has noticed recently but tw*tter has started to become very anti - Ukraine. So much shit about Ukrainian Nazi's that any info pro Ukrainian or giving out balanced info is becoming lost in the bullshit. Is it becoming very pro Russia or being overwhelmed by bot accounts? I can't quite work out. I think it will be time to leave soon and use other sources for information.

 

[magnkarl]

26 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I don't know if anybody else has noticed recently but tw*tter has started to become very anti - Ukraine. So much shit about Ukrainian Nazi's that any info pro Ukrainian or giving out balanced info is becoming lost in the bullshit. Is it becoming very pro Russia or being overwhelmed by bot accounts? I can't quite work out. I think it will be time to leave soon and use other sources for information.

 

It’s bots and previously banned people spreading fake news that are now on due to Elon’s personal views.

[brommy]

56 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I don't know if anybody else has noticed recently but tw*tter has started to become very anti - Ukraine. So much shit about Ukrainian Nazi's that any info pro Ukrainian or giving out balanced info is becoming lost in the bullshit. Is it becoming very pro Russia or being overwhelmed by bot accounts? I can't quite work out. I think it will be time to leave soon and use other sources for information.

 

Yet another good reason to ignore Twitter.