Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Xann]

Off to war in a car with fluffy dice.

[Anthony]

So, Kharkiv. Bit warm there for the Russians it seems.

 

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, Anthony said:

So, Kharkiv. Bit warm there for the Russians it seems.

As a tactic it's a genius move

They telegraphed the Kherson assault for weeks. Russia reinforced the Kherson front to the tune of an extra 10-15,000 troops, which they obviously pulled from elsewhere.

Then Ukraine take out all the bridges across the Dnipro river, trapping all those troops in that area with now, extremely hard logistics and start the telegraphed assault.

Meanwhile at the absolute opposite end of the front all the way over in Kharkiv - the weakened front gets hit hard too.

So you have large numbers of Russians trapped in Kherson and if they want to retreat, they'll have to do it on foot and leave masses of equipment and also losing ground at the other end of the front where Russia moved all it's troops from

Operation Double Penetration

 

[Genie]

Take Russia’s nukes away and they look like a bloody Carry On film.

[ender4]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

As a tactic it's a genius move

They telegraphed the Kherson assault for weeks. Russia reinforced the Kherson front to the tune of an extra 10-15,000 troops, which they obviously pulled from elsewhere.

Then Ukraine take out all the bridges across the Dnipro river, trapping all those troops in that area with now, extremely hard logistics and start the telegraphed assault.

Meanwhile at the absolute opposite end of the front all the way over in Kharkiv - the weakened front gets hit hard too.

So you have large numbers of Russians trapped in Kherson and if they want to retreat, they'll have to do it on foot and leave masses of equipment and also losing ground at the other end of the front where Russia moved all it's troops from

Operation Double Penetration

 

So is there a decent chance that Ukraine will actually be able to take back Kherson or Kharkiv over the next few weeks?

[bickster]

11 minutes ago, ender4 said:

So is there a decent chance that Ukraine will actually be able to take back Kherson or Kharkiv over the next few weeks?

Kharkiv the city has never been in Russian hands, they got close to taking it but Ukraine have slowly pushed them away but not it appears they've pushed the Russians back much further.

As for Kherson, hard to say how long it will take

[magnkarl]

16 hours ago, ender4 said:

So is there a decent chance that Ukraine will actually be able to take back Kherson or Kharkiv over the next few weeks?

I think the televised speech by Zelensky saying that they will try to take Kherson city by Christmas is most likely. Imo they'll at least get to the city limits, and Russia might try to do a long haul urban battle. In any case Ukraine is actually enjoying air supremacy and artillery majority in Kherson, so the Russians are having to actually feel what it's like to be outnumbered, outgunned and pushed hard.

We're getting close to the point where Putin has to call it a war and call for general mobilisation and risk the consequences of that or alternatively retreat. Either would be a massive win for Ukraine.

The recent tactics by Ukraine shows how far they've come, they're operating like a full fledged NATO-nation, and it must scare Russia to see what such a militarily inferior nation can do to them. Imagine what NATO could do. Bar nukes destroying the world it would be a complete roll over.

Edited September 7, 2022 by magnkarl

[Panto_Villan]

It seems like the war has finally turned decisively in Ukraine's favour. This is especially good news because it means they probably now have the full confidence of their Western backers as we approach winter and the West starts to suffer from the gas shortage. The news today has been great - I'm spending way too much time checking twitter and watching the villages fall in quick succession.

Given that the Ukrainians seem to be making huge gains in Kharkiv, I'd be quite surprised if we don't see another attack down towards Melitipol in the next few weeks too. Seems like the Russians are stretched incredibly thinly already and the Ukrainians have been hitting supplies in that area for a long time now.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Panto_Villan

[bickster]

 

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

I'd be quite surprised if we don't see another attack down towards Melitipol in the next few weeks too.

Not a chance of that IMO. Geography dictates that it's almost impossible without opening a third very active front and I doubt Ukraine have the manpower for that. Melitopol is protected by the very large  and wide dammed Dnipro River

Before they get to Melitopol they'd have to also presumably skirt around Zaporizhzhia where the Nuclear Power Plant is

It's more important right now for Ukraine to take Kherson and all north of the Dnipro. Then they'll have the very difficult task of crossing the river, especially as they've blown the bridges out. Kherson Oblast is also a priority so they can control the canal from the reservoir, the canal that supplies fresh water to Crimea. The only fresh water Crimea gets. One of the first things Russia did on invasion was to undam the canal. For Ukraine its vital to prevent that water getting to Crimea.

Similarly once they can control south of the river near Kherson, they control one of the two entrances to Crimea. Once they can control that entrance they'll destroy the exit bridge to Russia, effectively trapping Crimea as an island unconnected to Russia.

All of that is far more important right now than Melitopol.

[Panto_Villan]

26 minutes ago, bickster said:

Not a chance of that IMO. Geography dictates that it's almost impossible without opening a third very active front and I doubt Ukraine have the manpower for that. Melitopol is protected by the very large  and wide dammed Dnipro River

Before they get to Melitopol they'd have to also presumably skirt around Zaporizhzhia where the Nuclear Power Plant is

It's more important right now for Ukraine to take Kherson and all north of the Dnipro. Then they'll have the very difficult task of crossing the river, especially as they've blown the bridges out. Kherson Oblast is also a priority so they can control the canal from the reservoir, the canal that supplies fresh water to Crimea. The only fresh water Crimea gets. One of the first things Russia did on invasion was to undam the canal. For Ukraine its vital to prevent that water getting to Crimea.

Similarly once they can control south of the river near Kherson, they control one of the two entrances to Crimea. Once they can control that entrance they'll destroy the exit bridge to Russia, effectively trapping Crimea as an island unconnected to Russia.

All of that is far more important right now than Melitopol.

I didn't necessarily mean into Melitipol itself per se, I just meant in that general direction - i.e. an attack south from the other side of the Dnipro. That could concievably even be a strike in the Mauripol direction rather than towards Melitipol.

As you say, Kherson is important to Ukraine - but if they can take out the Kerch bridge, then the only easy way to supply most of the occupied territory in the south is through the land bridge running through Mauripol and Melitipol along the coast. Severing that would certainly make it harder for the Russians to resupply, especially as it would threaten naval resupply via the Azov sea. And they're eventually going to have to attack in that direction anyway - even if they take Kherson, there's no way they'll ever attack across the river.

But yes, that's all reliant on what forces the Ukrainians have available. It depends how deep their reserves are in that particular theatre and if they've got a reasonable amount present, a push in that area might well be equally successful as Kharkiv. But if they'd moved most of their reserves to Kherson and Kharkiv to support those attacks then it wouldn't be a realistic prospect. I got the impression they had a decent amount of troops in the area, though I might be wrong on that count.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Panto_Villan

[ender4]

45 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

It seems like the war has finally turned decisively in Ukraine's favour.

The news today has been great - I'm spending way too much time checking twitter and watching the villages fall in quick succession.

What has been the news today?  Where are you seeing villages fall?

[Panto_Villan]

33 minutes ago, ender4 said:

What has been the news today?  Where are you seeing villages fall?

As some of the other posters have alluded to, the Ukrainians attacked around Kharkiv in the east of the country today (alongside their offensive in Kherson further to the west). It looks like they’ve broken through the Russian lines with tanks and they’ve taken quite a lot of land and killed a lot of Russians.

I’m following mostly on Twitter but I’m sure it’ll be all over the proper news in a few hours once the frontlines settle down.

[magnkarl]

16 hours ago, ender4 said:

What has been the news today?  Where are you seeing villages fall?

For some good sources I'd use these, Ender.

The quick summary is that Ukraine liberated something like 400km2 yesterday. More than Russia have gained in the last 3 months. Russia is losing upwards of 500 soldiers a day. Their best units were sent to the Kherson front, after which Ukraine blew up the bridges so that they can't go back. These forces were taken from Kharkiv where Ukraine are now breezing past Russia's predug defensive positions because their best units are stuck in Kherson without supplies and a way out.

Edited September 8, 2022 by magnkarl

[bickster]

 

[bickster]

And here are some brave people that want to fall out of hospital windows

 

[Panto_Villan]

Taking Kupiansk would effectively cut off the Russian forces in Izyum to the south, so if the second tweet is true then it’s really big news.

 

[bickster]

27 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

Taking Kupiansk would effectively cut off the Russian forces in Izyum to the south, so if the second tweet is true then it’s really big news.

That was always thought to be the aim of that push around Balakliya couple of days ago.

Also I think Kup'yans''k is currently the HQ of the Russian Army in that area so it was also thought that they were trying to get that in artillery range quickly too

[Panto_Villan]

15 minutes ago, bickster said:

That was always thought to be the aim of that push around Balakliya couple of days ago.

Also I think Kup'yans''k is currently the HQ of the Russian Army in that area so it was also thought that they were trying to get that in artillery range quickly too

Indeed. Although I think getting the city into artillery range was probably the baseline aim of the operation, physically taking control of the city probably represents things going better than expected!

(Assuming it actually happens)

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

Indeed. Although I think getting the city into artillery range was probably the baseline aim of the operation, physically taking control of the city probably represents things going better than expected!

(Assuming it actually happens)

well as you mention it...

 

Thats a Ukrainian soldier by the sign for Shevchenkovo 30km directly west of Kup'yans'k and a moving back of the front line in that direction of at least 20km

Now given OPSEC that is liekly to have been at least yesterday, rumours today from Russian Telegram channels saying the Ukrainians are only 2KM away from the outskirts of Kup'yans'k