Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[magnkarl]

10 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

How do you figure that? NATO is a defensive alliance so it's only a problem for the Russians if he decides to attack any of them.

If you ever go to Kirkenes in Norway and have a look over the border you'll see gun placements, tanks, bunkers and a vast number of soldiers 'training' every day. Putin's whole ideology is based on the fact that he believes NATO is an aggressive entity which he has to defend himself from. There's also extensive BTG formations on the Estonian and Latvian borders, and especially near the Suwalki (sp) gap.

Then there's the Kuril islands, Kamchatka, Kola, Sakhalin peninsula, Georgia, Chechnya, Syria, Kasakhstan, Vladivostok and not the least Kaliningrad. 

Edited April 29, 2022 by magnkarl

[avfc1982am]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

Exactly, Ukraine, UK and others are all saying that Russia need to be pushed out of Ukraine completely. I reckon they won’t stop until they have Crimea back also.

I think Crimea is lost to Russia. It has been for 8 years and unfortunately, Russia are not handing it back. It's all about Donbas and Luhansk now and the surrounding regions.

[Genie]

1 minute ago, avfc1982am said:

I think Crimea is lost to Russia. It has been for 8 years and unfortunately, Russia are not handing it back. It's all about Donbas and Luhansk now and the surrounding regions.

You may be right, time will tell. If they are ever going go try an reclaim it the next few weeks will probably be the best opportunity.

Maybe it’ll be used to negotiate a peace. If Ukraine accepts it has gone then formalising it as belonging to Russia might be something Putin can sell as a victory.

[Awol]

11 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

If you ever go to Kirkenes in Norway and have a look over the border you'll see gun placements, tanks, bunkers and a vast number of soldiers 'training' every day. Putin's whole ideology is based on the fact that he believes NATO is an aggressive entity which he has to defend himself from. There's also extensive BTG formations on the Estonian and Latvian borders, and especially near the Suwalki (sp) gap.

Then there's the Kuril islands, Kamchatka, Kola, Sakhalin peninsula, Georgia, Chechnya, Syria, Kasakhstan, Vladivostok and not the least Kaliningrad. 

I agree with desensitised on this point. Putin is an absolute hole of his own making, but the second a NATO soldier steps onto Russian soil then his propaganda is vindicated and nuclear weapons really are on the table for real. 

We can and should beat the granny out of his forces in Ukraine using local troops as the mechanism to deliver those effects. But no one, NATO or Ukrainian, should even suggest going into Russia with conventional troops (air strikes on logistical targets are a different matter).

The war aim is the liberation of Ukraine only and it needs to stay limited to that.

[sidcow]

13 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I think Crimea is lost to Russia. It has been for 8 years and unfortunately, Russia are not handing it back. It's all about Donbas and Luhansk now and the surrounding regions.

I think we should send in the light Cavalry.  What could possibly go wrong?

[magnkarl]

17 minutes ago, Awol said:

I agree with desensitised on this point. Putin is an absolute hole of his own making, but the second a NATO soldier steps onto Russian soil then his propaganda is vindicated and nuclear weapons really are on the table for real. 

We can and should beat the granny out of his forces in Ukraine using local troops as the mechanism to deliver those effects. But no one, NATO or Ukrainian, should even suggest going into Russia with conventional troops (air strikes on logistical targets are a different matter).

The war aim is the liberation of Ukraine only and it needs to stay limited to that.

I don't disagree, I'm just saying that Putin has forces to block NATO forces in those locations, meaning he can't pour his whole army into Ukraine.

[desensitized43]

42 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

If you ever go to Kirkenes in Norway and have a look over the border you'll see gun placements, tanks, bunkers and a vast number of soldiers 'training' every day. Putin's whole ideology is based on the fact that he believes NATO is an aggressive entity which he has to defend himself from. There's also extensive BTG formations on the Estonian and Latvian borders, and especially near the Suwalki (sp) gap.

Then there's the Kuril islands, Kamchatka, Kola, Sakhalin peninsula, Georgia, Chechnya, Syria, Kasakhstan, Vladivostok and not the least Kaliningrad. 

I don't doubt that the Russians and Putin believe that they're under threat but we, and NATO can do nothing about one nation or man's paranoia. Russia have never been attacked directly by NATO. 

[Awol]

23 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I don't disagree, I'm just saying that Putin has forces to block NATO forces in those locations, meaning he can't pour his whole army into Ukraine.

Sorry my misunderstanding. Yes, you’re absolutely right. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Conservative MP Lee Anderson has not been sanctioned by Russia. 

So he's written to the Russian Embassy pointing out their omission and asking to be sanctioned. 

  

 

 

 

[magnkarl]

30 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

I don't doubt that the Russians and Putin believe that they're under threat but we, and NATO can do nothing about one nation or man's paranoia. Russia have never been attacked directly by NATO. 

Again, I've never said that we would. I'm saying that by Finland joining NATO, Putin will need to allocate even more of his already stretched thin army to the 1340km border with Finland. This will be huge for Ukraine as Putin can't allocate said soldiers to the war with Ukraine.

Edited April 29, 2022 by magnkarl

[mjmooney]

1 hour ago, sidcow said:

I think we should send in the light Cavalry.  What could possibly go wrong?

C'est la guerre, mais ce n'est pas magnifique. 

[Awol]

48 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

 

This fella reckons the Russians have 2-4 weeks left in the tank for their Donbas offensive before the initiative flips.

A decent thread that chimes with much of what posters have been saying in here (experts eh, who needs ‘em?!)

 

[desensitized43]

9 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Again, I've never said that we would. I'm saying that by Finland joining NATO, Putin will need to allocate even more of his already stretched thin army to the 1340km border with Finland. This will be huge for Ukraine as Putin can't allocate said soldiers to the war with Ukraine.

But it isn't like Finland and Russia were great mates before Finland joining NATO. They'd still have needed to defend that border before. Regarding Ukraine, it'll be a question of priorities for the resource and balance of risk as it is for any country. They'll bitch and wine that Finland joining NATO is bad etc etc but their immediate problem is that they're engaged in a bloody offensive war in Ukraine that has the potential to turn the Russian public opinion against the regime. They'll see defeating Ukraine or at least being able to claim they've defeated Ukraine as the strategic imperitive. Not defending a thousand miles of border with a country that realistically wasn't ever going to attack them anyway.

[avfc1982am]

5 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

Not defending a thousand miles of border with a country that realistically wasn't ever going to attack them anyway

What like Ukraine?  

[magnkarl]

9 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

But it isn't like Finland and Russia were great mates before Finland joining NATO. They'd still have needed to defend that border before. Regarding Ukraine, it'll be a question of priorities for the resource and balance of risk as it is for any country. They'll bitch and wine that Finland joining NATO is bad etc etc but their immediate problem is that they're engaged in a bloody offensive war in Ukraine that has the potential to turn the Russian public opinion against the regime. They'll see defeating Ukraine or at least being able to claim they've defeated Ukraine as the strategic imperitive. Not defending a thousand miles of border with a country that realistically wasn't ever going to attack them anyway.

It's not just Finland joining NATO for Russia though, it's Finland and Sweden joining, potentially opening up 1340km where Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and the Baltic countries will 100% place troops. Finland has been staunchly neutral and Russia has had very few troops stationed i.e. in Karelia, this will have to change from a defense perspective when i.e. the U.S stations 1000 soldiers in Joensuu or Lappeenranta, which they very well might. Russia will be the underdog along the Finnish border, coming from a position where Finland was the underdog. Of course Russia will need to increase its presence there.

[avfc1982am]

From 4 years ago. 

 

[sidcow]

So Russia have stated that they have used "high precision" missiles to destroy a space-rocket plant and other military assets.

Ukraine sure are good at disguising these facilities as blocks of flats.

Edited April 29, 2022 by sidcow

[LondonLax]

55 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Again, I've never said that we would. I'm saying that by Finland joining NATO, Putin will need to allocate even more of his already stretched thin army to the 1340km border with Finland. This will be huge for Ukraine as Putin can't allocate said soldiers to the war with Ukraine.

I think the point of confusion here is that it’s not that Putin would need to find additional troops allocate along this new frontier with NATO. It’s just that his own ideology means he thinks he now needs to find more resources to move up to defend this new (long) frontier and he doesn’t have them readily available so he’s going to have some tough decisions to make on which troops to send where. 

[avfc1982am]

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Desperate times call for desperate measures.  

James Blunt is ex-forces and specialised in tank warfare.  Let's give him a billion pounds, our best tank, a commitment to provide permanent stealth fighter cover and send him to the Donbass.  

Just think of the massive increase to Ukrainiane's morale and willingness to fight knowing that he's  joined the Russian Army.