The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[ml1dch]

Next time your friendly local journalist / BBC talking head / shadow cabinet member solemnly tells you that the only way to have frictionless trade or to "solve the Irish border problem" is to be in a Customs Union, the Commission has knocked up a handy slide for them.

The bits in red are solved by a Customs Union, the bits in black are solved by the Single Market.

And although we might not need to worry about our curry leaf or Guar gum industries, the whole of "products of animal origin"? Well, we do a bit of that.

[chrisp65]

[ml1dch]

Ha ha. When even that complete moron Dominic Cummings is writing stuff like this, it's probably safe to say that the rats in the sack are about to chew each other to pieces.

...All this contributes to current delusional arguments over supposed ‘models’ (hybrid/max fac etc) that even on their own terms cannot solve the problem of multiple incompatible promises. ‘Compromise proposals’ such as that from Boles which assume the existence of ‘third country’ planning are just more delusions. It doesn’t matter which version of delusion your gangs finally agree on if none of them has a basis in reality and so long as May/Hammond continue they will have no basis in reality.

You can dance around the fundamental issues all you want but in the end ‘reality cannot be fooled’.

The Government effectively has no credible policy and the whole world knows it. By not taking the basic steps any sane Government should have taken from 24 June 2016, including providing itself with world class legal advice, it’s ‘strategy’ has imploded. It now thinks its survival requires surrender, it thinks that admitting this risks its survival, it thinks that the MPs can be bullshitted by clever drafting from officials, and that once Leave MPs and donors — you guys — are ordering your champagne in the autumn for your parties on 30 March 2019 you will balk at bringing down the Government when you finally have to face that you’ve been conned. Eurosceptics are full of **** and threats they don’t deliver, they say in No10, and on this at least they have a point.

This set of problems cannot be solved by swapping ‘useless X’ for ‘competent Y’ or ‘better spin’.

This set of problems cannot be solved by listening to charlatans such as the overwhelming majority of economists and ‘trade experts’ who brand themselves pro-Brexit, live in parallel universes, and spin fantasies to you.

https://dominiccummings.com/2018/05/23/on-the-referendum-25-a-letter-to-tory-mps-donors-on-the-brexit-shambles/

[bickster]

Might have to nick that...

 

But in other news... the current favoured Government economic border plan (impossible but hey ho) will cost approx £20bn a year over the first ten years according to... the bloke that runs HMRC

Puting that figure into perspective, thats  £4bn a year than it costs us to be in the EU, broken down per declaration thats £2.50 per declaration

A call on LBC this morning was quite illuminating. Bloke that's built up a Europe to UK courier business explaining how not being in the customs union will put him out of business overnight and also how crucial being in the customs union and seamless borders are to the automotive industry. I was going to link it but LBCs site is a nightmare to quote and post videos from (James O'Brien show)

 

[chrisp65]

Continuing EU Democracy, providing you vote how they want

Quote

Two of the big winners from the vote - Five Star and the League - attempted to join forces but abandoned efforts after the president vetoed their choice of finance minister.

Mr Mattarella said he could not appoint the Eurosceptic Paolo Savona to the post, citing concern from investors at home and abroad.

The rare move by the president sparked fury from both parties, who say they will reject Mr Cottarelli's nomination in parliament.

 

Wasn't sure where to put this, but it sort of goes on the long list of countries having multiple votes on the euro until they vote for it. Along side the disgusting treatment of Catalan prisoners in Spain.

The important thing, is the protection of the project.

Absolutely no reason to presume the EU won't give us anything but a great deal. Unless of course, they need to show a few others the consequences of doubting the project...

[Chindie]

I had to snigger earlier when news feed on my phone had amongst the headlines 'Brexit is a disaster'.

No shit.

Anyone with a slimmest handle on the thing could see that was the case 2 years ago.

[Chindie]

Sir Ivan Rogers on 'the real post-Brexit options'

Quote

What I aim to explore today are the real choices that confront us now, which, as I have argued here and elsewhere, have rather rarely been discussed honestly over the years of our membership of the EU. These choices have been at the heart of decisions taken by Governments of all hues over the entire period, but they barely got a look in in the referendum campaign, which, for good or ill, was primarily about issues which were much more immediate and pressing to the public.

Ivan Rogers was the permanent representative to the EU for the UK until resigning last year, a move cheered by Brexiteers, foolishly. The above is a long read, and is critical of most aspects of Brexit and the UKs relationship with Europe, right down to how the the EU was sold to the UK in the years prior to the referendum. It's an interesting read.

It underlines the fact that Brexit, as many have said again and again and again, is a difficult road to a destination exceedingly unlikely to be better than where we set off from. 

Brexit - completely stupid.

[chrisp65]

The Italian populists don't like the way europe is perceived as being run for the benefit of German industry. They attempt to install a broadly EU sceptic cabinet with a euro sceptic Finance Minister. They are told by the President 'no', they simply cannot have euro sceptics in positions of power.

Then the German EU Budget Commissioner steps in with the helpful words:

politico

Quote

“My concern and expectation is that the coming weeks will show that the development of the markets, government bonds and the economy of Italy will be so far-reaching that this will be a possible signal to voters not to vote for populists on the right or left,” Oettinger said.

“Already the developments of the government bonds, the market value of banks, the general course of the Italian economy is clearly overcast, is negative. This has to do with the possible government formation.”

So, a country that's becoming sceptical about an EU old boys club stitch up, is told they'll pay the price if they vote against the EU again.

But now they're worried they can't have another election as the populist parties that said it's an EU stitch up can simply point at recent events and comments.

Not clever.

 

[ml1dch]

3 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

The Italian populists don't like the way europe is perceived as being run for the benefit of German industry. They attempt to install a broadly EU sceptic cabinet with a euro sceptic Finance Minister. They are told by the President 'no', they simply cannot have euro sceptics in positions of power.

Then the German EU Budget Commissioner steps in with the helpful words:

politico

So, a country that's becoming sceptical about an EU old boys club stitch up, is told they'll pay the price if they vote against the EU again.

But now they're worried they can't have another election as the populist parties that said it's an EU stitch up can simply point at recent events and comments.

Not clever.

 

It’s a snappy way of looking at the situation, but the reality is a bit more complex. A bit like the mantra that “Ireland voted against Lisbon and were told by the EU to vote again”, it’s not really the reality of it.

This isn’t an unprecedented situation. It’s not uncommon for a President to veto the appointment of an individual minister (2014 was the last time I think). Normally, they just crack on and appoint somebody else. Salvini was told before that Savona wouldn’t be acceptable, but he decided that it would be better not to govern at all than carry on with somebody else (see the bit about clever politicking below). 

So, why was he an unacceptable choice? It’s lazy to say that it’s that “they simply cannot have eurosceptics in positions of power”. Pretty much all the ministers suggested are eurosceptic, including potential future Minister of the Interior Salvini himself, and all the others were perfectly acceptable apart from Savona. During the elections, the euroscepticism of both parties was dialled back, and membership of the Euro wasn’t really discussed.

Mattarella has basically said that if membership of the Euro is going to be called into question, then it should be talked about and that voters should be voting on it, if a party goes into an election with that aim and wins then he would be an appropriate choice. Not, a coalition comes to power and decides that they are going to start down that path having not campaigned on it. 

And people can whinge about the undemocratic Italians, but that’s their system. Appointments have been rejected before, and they’ll be rejected again. Had I been Mattarella, I’d have just gone with it and allowed the 5 Star / Lega Nord shambles to collapse in a couple of weeks under the weight of its own contradictions, thus avoiding this altogether. 

But Salvini has depressingly, played this extremely well. Given he knew beforehand that the Savona wouldn’t be approved, he’s basically done this without any intention of forming a Government, but just to bank some extra “look at the horrible elites” points before the inevitable next elections. Excellent politicking, and there’s a good chance he’ll be electorally rewarded for it. On the flip side, there’s also a fairly plausible scenario that this was his one shot at (very short term) power.

As for Oettinger’s remarks, they’re not particularly tactful. But nor is reporting them as a threat (as many outlets are doing) particularly tactful either. He’s just saying that if a country suggests they might want to rip up their monetary system and start again from scratch, then people are going to try and take their money out of that system before it happens. Not a threat, just a pretty obvious statement of how capitalist markets work. 

For example, if HSBC told me that they were about to put John McDonnell in charge, I’d probably think that it might be time for a flight of my pretty meagre capital from them before it happened.

 

Edit - apologies for the lecture, that turned into a much longer post than I expected.

Edited May 30, 2018 by ml1dch

[chrisp65]

20 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

It’s a snappy way of looking at the situation, but the reality is a bit more complex.

That’s a good response, cheers. You’re right of course, it is a bit ‘soundbite’ of me to write it up as I had and everything is always far more complex and onion layered. But I think it’s fair to say that the parties that are trying to form a coalition did have euro scepticism at the heart of their campaigns. So to say once they try to form a government that any substantial anti EU moves would then need a separate debate isn’t strictly fair. I think if the UK had voted in a UKIP government, we wouldn’t really then have needed a discussion on whether that means we’re going to consider leaving the EU.

But! And I like big buts. I was just trying to throw a little light on the other side of the EU, the side that almost caused me to vote leave. I voted remain, but whilst holding my nose. My rock and a hard place problem is that I can see there’s plainly a Germancentric superstate forming here with cheap labour pools and out of touch elites. But I can also see that the only parties that appear prepared to call this out are the ‘extremes’ of the left and right. So whilst I’d like to see the EU slapped down somewhat, I don’t really want the Italian fascists to be the boys to do it.
 

[HanoiVillan]

I have little knowledge of Italian politics, but this was David Timoney's take:

'In the case of Italy, President Mattarella's rejection of Paolo Savona as Finance Minister is variously interpreted as a necessary black-ball for a dangerous Eurosceptic or a repeat of the Greek tragedy in which the will of the people is countermanded by a callous EU. In fact, Savona is an establishment technocratic whose scepticism about the euro is little different to that of Gordon Brown. His real sin is his prior claim that an exit from the eurozone would have to prepared covertly for technical reasons. As he is so firmly associated with this idea, appointing him would be interpreted as a case of showing your hand, which is why Mattarella cited the likelihood of a destabilising run on Italian bonds were the appointment to go through. The President's view seems to be that as neither M5S nor La Lega included an exit from the euro in their manifestos, there is no mandate to pursue a change that he claimed would have constitutional ramifications in respect of the state's obligation to "protect" citizens' savings (a bit of a stretch), and that for the sake of market stability the coalition's Finance Minister must therefore be at least neutral on the subject. Mattarella is intimating that M5S and La Lega haven't been straight with the electorate, reviving the old tradition of Trasformismo. Ironically, Savona is being black-balled because of his apparent sincerity.

The unwillingness of Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Salvini to compromise on Savona's appointment lends credence to the suggestion that neither really believed the proposed coalition was viable and both are jockeying for position ahead of another general election in early autumn, though it's Salvini who appears to be making most of the running and potentially has the most to gain. The thinking is that La Lega will hoover up votes on the right, from Forza Italia and the Fascist-lineage Fratelli d'Italia (I doubt the bizarre rehabilitation of Silvio Berlusconi as a moderate elder statesman will limit this, but you never know). However, despite its new focus on "national" topics such as migration and the euro, there is little evidence that La Lega can overcome the legacy of its historic antipathy towards the South of Italy, which is where it would have to succeed in order to secure a plurality of the electorate. The party's Euroscepticism is culturally an extension of its opposition to Rome and thus the distaste of the richer North towards a central state that has long subsidised the poorer South. It is hard to see La Lega getting beyond 30% of the vote, and equally hard to imagine Berlusconi sticking with a joint electoral bloc if the Forza Italia vote continues to drift to La Lega.'

http://fromarsetoelbow.blogspot.com/2018/05/lessons-learned.html

[ml1dch]

I don't know who he is, but as his feelings are broadly in line with my post above, I have no doubt that he is an excellent fellow who knows exactly what he's talking about!

[Chindie]

Fun to see leading Brexiteer Lawson apply for French residency.

[HanoiVillan]

4 hours ago, Chindie said:

Fun to see leading Brexiteer Lawson apply for French residency.

If by 'fun', you mean 'absolutely **** infuriating', sure. 

[ml1dch]

So it looks like the Government's accepted that neither of it's magical customs plans will work. Just like anyone with brains cells in double figures could have told them (and did) weeks ago.

Not to worry - there's a new plan. A ten mile combined regulatory zone all along the border. Seeing Northern Ireland both inside the EU, and outside it.

It'll be fine. EU standards and regulations both will apply and won't apply. There will be ECJ oversight and there also won't be. The cat will be both simultaneously alive and dead.

You couldn't have written this any more farcically if you'd tried.

[Chindie]

It's hilarious they've even posited this as a 'solution'.

I can only imagine it'll be administered by leprechauns in Davis' mind.

[HanoiVillan]

4 hours ago, ml1dch said:

So it looks like the Government's accepted that neither of it's magical customs plans will work. Just like anyone with brains cells in double figures could have told them (and did) weeks ago.

Not to worry - there's a new plan. A ten mile combined regulatory zone all along the border. Seeing Northern Ireland both inside the EU, and outside it.

It'll be fine. EU standards and regulations both will apply and won't apply. There will be ECJ oversight and there also won't be. The cat will be both simultaneously alive and dead.

You couldn't have written this any more farcically if you'd tried.

 

[ml1dch]

You know that you're in a bit of a bind when the people throwing around sarcastic suggestions to take the piss are coming up with more credible ideas than the Government's own plans.

It's a bit weird. You'd have thought that from 17.4m voters, there would be one amongst them who could put forward a way to actually do it.

Still, they know what they voted for. It's just really difficult to put it into words...

Edited June 1, 2018 by ml1dch

[HanoiVillan]

The referendum was nearly two years ago. The date of Brexit is ten months away. The government doesn't have a] a consensus view on what it wants, b] a debate to reach that consensus, and certainly not c] a negotiating strategy. This is sheer incompetence, and it shouldn't be allowed to go unmentioned. It's like, three months or something since David Davis last topped the news? A long time anyway. And what's he been up to? This plan, ridiculed by the world. 

[chrisp65]

23 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

 It's like, three months or something since David Davis last topped the news? A long time anyway. And what's he been up to?