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Week 12 - JAGUARS IN THE HUNT Edition


StefanAVFC

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Holy cow Brock. That was some game son!

And to the calls, mostly jokes which we benefited from this week, case in point last week where we didn't get any, very literally.

Loosing Ward and Sly Williams sucks though.

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7 hours ago, maqroll said:

It's the same thing that's been pissing off all fans of the game, shit decisions, phantom calls, total confusion as to what the rules are, because they are enforced arbitrarily. It's turned into an absolute shambles, so excuse me for being pissed about it after my team lost as a result.

Every team gets that, we were totally screwed by them last week too.

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1 hour ago, Cliffy Biro said:

Every team gets that, we were totally screwed by them last week too.

So have a rightful moan about it. I am, and I have as much right as anyone else to. Or do I have to abide by a separate fan rulebook?

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LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

Edited by kurtsimonw
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Football Outsiders looks at the Giants-Redskins game

An awful performance in late November that deals a big hit to the loser's playoff chances? For any team but the New York Giants, that would lead to gnashing of teeth and gnawing of fingernails. Eli Manning throws three interceptions (and makes an impressive effort to add a couple more) against the No. 26 pass defense by DVOA? Right tackle Marshall Newhouse gets turnstiled repeatedly by the No. 23 line by adjusted sack rate? Safety Brandon Meriweather lets DeSean Jackson get 5 yards behind him for a 63-yard touchdown? Sounds concerning, but then you remember that this is the boom year in the four-year Super Bowl cycle, so the Giants are supposed to look like they don’t belong before somehow squeezing into the playoffs and then beating the Patriots to win it all.

 

Well, this week the Giants certainly did look like they don't belong. Sunday night, the Patriots suffered a fumble luck-driven six-point loss in overtime that didn’t tell us much about their championship chances. (That game is now covered in depth in Clutch Encounters.) But earlier in the day, the Giants’ 20-14 loss showed as many warning signs as a six-point loss could. The 20-0 lead that Washington held into the fourth quarter came from a hail of Eli Manning mistakes that suggest his closest counterpart in the NFL today might well be the frequently turnover-prone quarterback he went up against on Sunday.

 

While no single game should change the perception of Eli Manning at this point, Sunday’s game was a reminder that a turnover machine still lurks in that No. 10 jersey, even if it generally remains caged. Manning’s three interceptions didn’t even include some of his worst throws.



[GIFs omitted]

 

Sunday’s careless Manning (in fairness, these throws did come in a game situation where risk-taking made sense) has appeared much less frequently in the last couple of years than in 2013, when he led the league with 27 interceptions. Sunday was just Manning’s second three-interception game in the last two seasons, after five such games in 2013. But while Manning now throws fewer interceptions, he has not gotten much more efficient in general. Manning throws shorter passes -- after averaging 9.78 air yards on his passes in 2013, that number dropped almost two full yards to 7.88 yards this season -- and takes fewer chances, but he has been almost exactly a league-average quarterback over the last two years.

 

The two-year increments for Manning show that he has a pretty standard career trajectory for non-elite quarterbacks. He peaked in his very late 20s and now appears to be on a downward slide that has not been halted by the shift to throwing shorter passes. Manning’s completion percentage has gone up, but his effectiveness has gone up at most only a little. That Manning has felt the pull of gravity towards zero DVOA despite gaining a receiver who defies the laws of physics adds more reason to doubt that Playoff Eli -- that guy who came out of nowhere to be dominant in January of 2008 and 2012 -- will reappear this year. It could happen again, but the odds against it are even stronger than in those years before Manning turned 30.

 

As we enter December, it’s hard not to keep thinking about the Giants as the team with upside behind an up-and-down quarterback. But if one of these two teams makes any noise, the better bet might be Washington, a team that several of us pegged as a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick before the season.

 

Sunday’s game felt like much more of an ass-kicking than the 20-14 final score, and DVOA calls it that way, too. Washington outgained the Giants by 75 yards and won the turnover battle 3-0. Despite losing by only six, the opponent adjustments push the Giants’ rating down to the second-lowest total of the week, ahead only of the Eagles.

 

The opponent adjustments also push the Giants’ offensive rating down to the second-lowest total of the week, just ahead of the Cowboys’ disaster on Thanksgiving.

From the comments: 1986, 1990, 2007, 2011 -> 2028, 2032

Edited by leviramsey
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With old division rivalries somewhat diluted over the last 20 years, I think the league should go to two conferences with no divisions, and the teams with the best six records in each conference make the playoffs. It's a disgrace when a team that battles all season to finish 10-6 misses out to a team that wins their division going 8-8, or even worse.

 

 

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And on other games (author is a Steeler fan)

The annual regular-season game of the year in the AFC did not feature Peyton Manning this time, but again it was his Broncos against Tom Brady and the Patriots as NBC had another instant classic in the snow. The 30-24 final is misleading for the top two scoring defenses coming into Week 12, as each team had 15 possessions and there were multiple short-field touchdown drives. This was a defensive game with an offensive ending.


When Brady threw a 63-yard touchdown to Brandon Bolden to start the fourth quarter, the Patriots had a commanding 21-7 lead. At home, they never lose in this situation, but on the road has been a different story. We had the stat earlier this year on how the Steelers are 170-3-1 since 1992 when leading by at least 11 points at any time in the game. I didn't have time to add up the number of wins (it's somewhere between one and 243), but this is actually the 17th time Bill Belichick has lost a game after leading by at least 11 points. It is the sixth time he has lost a 14-point lead with the Patriots. I never paid much attention to New England fans that fear playing at Mile High, but the Broncos are indeed 16-3 against the Patriots in Denver since the 1970 merger.


New England got the ball right back with 4:12 left for some four-minute offense. Gronkowski converted one first down, but the Patriots made a strategic error that almost derailed the season. No one throws the ball on first down in the last four minutes, protecting a one-score lead, more than Brady. He has done it six times this season; the rest of the NFL has eight such attempts combined. His five attempts on second down are also a high in 2015. You would want to throw high-percentage passes to keep the clock moving in this scenario, which is what the Patriots usually live on anyway, but Brady's career completion percentage is below average in these situations.


Here he failed to connect with Gronkowski on first down, and Gronkowski was writhing in pain after the play. The injury initially looked really bad, but fortunately Gronk should be back soon. However, his night was done and Brady threw another incompletion on second down before gaining 7 yards on a third-down screen. Keep in mind, Denver only had one timeout left. New England absolutely should have run the ball on first down, still allowing Brady two chances to throw. Smarter management of the clock could have helped the Patriots walk out with a perfect record and a healthy Gronkowski.


Brock Osweiler had 2:31 left to drive 83 yards for the go-ahead touchdown, a situation new to him in the NFL. We have a lot to learn on what kind of quarterback this kid is, but one thing he has not been so far is much of a deep passer. Coming into this drive, Osweiler was 1-of-11 with two pass interference penalties on passes that traveled more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He picked a good time for his second completion. Demaryius Thomas picked a good time to make his lone catch of the night after a horrific 0-for-11 start, pulling in a 36-yard gain over Logan Ryan, who gave him fits most of the night. At this point Osweiler should have just taken his time, cautiously leaving Brady little time to answer. However, young quarterbacks just cannot seem to help themselves in these moments, and he went deep again with a 39-yard strike to Emmanuel Sanders.


From the 8-yard line, Osweiler ran out of bounds on a quarterback sweep that was just an odd play all around. On second down, he was buried on a sack that would have brought up a very interesting third-and-15 situation. Again, the Patriots were basically hosed on a penalty that did not need to be called as two guys were competing. Patrick Chung was penalized for holding against Thomas, but both players had a hold of each other. You have to let those plays go. From the 4-yard line, Osweiler threw one of his best passes of the night to Andre Caldwell against Ryan for the go-ahead touchdown with 1:09 left.


(Ed. Note: I hope Scott doesn't mind if I butt in here with a thought on the officiating Sunday night. Fans are constantly looking for conspiracy theories when it comes to the Patriots. Pats fans think the league is out to get them. Pats haters think the Pats constantly get the benefit of calls. But there's a pretty simple explanation for the questionable, one-sided officiating in the fourth quarter. Officials tend to subconsciously favor the home team. It's not about any franchise in particular. -- Aaron Schatz)

Brady got the ball back with 69 seconds to get a field goal. With all New England's injuries, this is basically the Scott Chandler and Brandon LaFell offense now. They made all three catches on the drive and we learned that an "excess timeout" for injury is not really a timeout, as the clock kept running. Instead it is just a temporary pause, as the clock will wind on the ready-for-play signal. Learning something new every week. Stephen Gostkowski is an excellent kicker, and he proved his worth again with a 47-yard field goal to send this to overtime.


Two years ago, Belichick took the wind in overtime against Denver's record-setting offense with Peyton Manning and it worked out. The game was ultimately decided on a muffed punt. Belichick should have put his defense out there first again in this one. Yes, Denver had just finished a 17-point quarter, but you have to trust your defense to not give up an 80-yard touchdown drive to an offense playing conventional three-down football with an inconsistent quarterback. At full strength, you give the ball to Brady, but this offense is not the same with all the injuries. New England had just one drive longer than 60 yards all night.


Naturally, the Patriots had a quick three-and-out, with the pressure amped up on Brady. The drive even lost 7 yards thanks to a Von Miller sack, so the Denver offense got to start at its own 43, only needing a field goal. On third-and-1, C.J. Anderson got the ball on a toss, and with Patriots diving at his feet, he ran 48 yards for the game-winning touchdown to end another perfect season bid. This is only the second time in modified overtime that a team won on a second-possession touchdown.


Denver can still realistically think about the No. 1 seed now. For the Patriots, this is only the 15th fourth-quarter comeback allowed in the last 15 years. That is remarkable given that we talk about a proud team like Seattle allowing 15 since 2012 alone. Given the injuries both teams have had, the Patriots have to feel good about a rematch with Denver -- but not so much if that rematch takes place in Mile High, their house of horrors.

The only other game in NFL history won on a walk-off blocked field goal return was Denver against San Diego in 1985, a game the Broncos won 30-24 in overtime. Does that score sound familiar? What a crazy ending to another wild week of football.

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Most "win big, lose close" QBs over the past 35 years (difference in win percentage where they didn't have a 4th quarter comeback/game-winning drive opportunity vs. those where they did)

  1. Aaron Rodgers: 70-10 vs. 13-32
  2. Russell Wilson: 31-0 vs. 17-19
  3. Philip Rivers: 70-19 vs. 25-50
  4. Chad Pennington: 35-13 vs. 11-28
  5. Seneca Wallace: 4-3 vs. 2-13
  6. Rex Grossman: 17-5 vs. 10-19
  7. Bill Kenney: 27-16 vs. 7-27
  8. Kurt Warner: 62-23 vs. 14-30
  9. Joe Flacco: 61-15 vs. 24-37
  10. Kyle Orton: 33-16 vs. 9-24
  11. Cam Newton: 32-12 vs. 10-21-1
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The only other 'walk-off' game winning 'kick six' in NFL history. Denver on San Diego in November 17th, 1985 @ Mile High, and they had to do it twice because they iced the kicker first time around.

 

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12 hours ago, Tegis said:

Just watched the Browns game, oh my dear santa!!! It's just not possible to do what Cleveland does, over and over and over again

Just watched highlights, had no idea what had happened.

Cleveland remind me of Villa, very much.

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