Week 12 - JAGUARS IN THE HUNT Edition

[kurtsimonw]

With old division rivalries somewhat diluted over the last 20 years, I think the league should go to two conferences with no divisions, and the teams with the best six records in each conference make the playoffs. It's a disgrace when a team that battles all season to finish 10-6 misses out to a team that wins their division going 8-8, or even worse.

 

 

Division winners absolutely have to get in because schedules are division heavy. Unless you remove inter-conference play and play 30 games a season (home and away v each team in your conference) I don't see how you can make it "fair"

[leviramsey]

Going to 2 divisions of eight in each conference might make things better: you play seven games (alternating home and away year to year) against your division, five of the eight (based on standings) in the other division in your conference, then a 2-year division rotation through the other conference where you play the team that finished in the corresponding place and the three out of seven you've gone the longest without playing.

AFC East: Patriots, Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Jaguars

AFC West: Bengals, Colts, Titans, Texans, Chiefs, Broncos, Raiders, Chargers

NFC East: Giants, Eagles, Washington, Panthers, Falcons, Bucs, Saints, Cowboys

NFC West: Lions, Packers, Bears, Vikings, Rams, Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks

[leviramsey]

Week 13 playoff scenarios

Patriots better result than Jets: Patriots win AFC East

Patriots better result than Chiefs: Patriots clinch playoffs

Patriots better result than Steelers: Patriots clinch playoffs

Bengals win & Colts loss & Texans loss/tie & Jets loss: Bengals clinch playoffs

Bengals win & Colts loss/tie & Texans loss & Jets loss: Bengals clinch playoffs

Bengals win & Colts loss & Texans loss/tie & Chiefs loss & Broncos win/tie: Bengals clinch playoffs

Bengals win & Colts loss/tie & Texans loss & Chiefs loss & Broncos win/tie: Bengals clinch playoffs

Panthers win/tie: Panthers win NFC South

Falcons loss/tie: Panthers win NFC South

Seahawks loss/tie: Panthers clinch playoffs

Cardinals loss & Packers loss/tie: Panthers clinch playoffs

Cardinals loss/tie & Packers loss: Panthers clinch playoffs

Analysis

Edited December 2, 2015 by leviramsey

[leviramsey]

If the Panthers lose to the Saints and the Falcons beat the Buccaneers, Carolina can clinch a playoff berth by getting rid of one team between ARI/SEA and MIN/GB, the teams that could catch or beat them as a wild card at 11-5. A Seattle loss or tie gets rid of one team, thus that gets the Panthers in. If Seattle doesn't lose or tie (meaning Minnesota lost), that combined with Arizona and Green Bay losses sets off a domino effect of games including ARI-MIN, ARI-GB, ARI-SEA, MIN-GB that clinches a spot in the top-six seeds for the Panthers.

For the Patriots, Buffalo can't catch them for the division title, since New England has swept the Bills and Buffalo can't use the Jets in a three-way tie to overcome that H2H deficit. That leaves the Jets, who can still beat the Pats on overall record and can split H2H if they beat New England in Week 16. The Patriots really just need one more division win to clinch that tiebreaker at 5-1 vs. 4-2, but they don't play within the AFC East until the final two weeks of the season against the Jets and Dolphins. New England can actually lose their next four games while the Jets could win their next four (each team would be 10-5 with one week to play) and the Patriots would only need to beat the Dolphins in Miami to still win the division (or have the Jets lose at Buffalo).

Having said that, the Pats can clinch the division this week with a win and a Jets loss in a similar fashion to Carolina above, as New England needs to win on overall record for now. It should be noted that if the Patriots win this week against the Eagles (non-conference) and then lose out and both the Pats and Jets end at 11-5, the Jets would beat the Patriots on conference record 8-4 to 7-5. If New England had a division game this week, they could clinch the title with a win this week.

On the playoff clinching side, the Patriots need to get better than 10 wins (win or tie this week) and have the five-loss teams like the Steelers and Chiefs take a hit.

Cincinnati can clinch a playoff berth this week with a win at Cleveland and a number of the five-loss teams losing, which gets the AFC South down to only the division champ that can catch the Bengals and creates another domino effect, with the Steelers likely needing to win out to beat the Bengals for the division, which gives the Broncos a loss and so on and so on. More to come on this.

Tiebreaker notes:

• The Giants' loss to the Redskins this past week was key as, although they split H2H, the Giants are now fall behind the Redskins on division record (2-1 vs. 2-3) and conference record (5-3 vs. 4-5). Any tie between these teams would likely give Washington the edge.
• Cowboys fans would have to see their team win three of its last five games (without Tony Romo) to even stand a slim chance of winning the division at 6-10, as wild-card chances are slim to none. Can that happen?
• The Vikings have a one-game lead over the Packers but Green Bay has that H2H win in hand with a big clash between these two ahead in Week 17. As long as the Packers can stay within one game of the Vikings through Week 16, they control their own fate for the division title.
• If the Falcons lose at the Buccaneers this week, you can likely write off Atlanta despite being tied with Seattle for the sixth seed at 6-5. A loss would give TB a sweep of Atlanta and drop the Falcons to 0-3 in the division and 4-5 in the conference. No bueno.
• The Seahawks are the No. 6 seed if the season ended today (conference record over Atlanta) and have a huge game at the Vikings this week that could determine wild-card seeding and the NFC North title. It's better for Seattle if Green Bay wins their division, since the Seahawks lost to the Packers in Week 2. Seattle would try to reel in the Vikings and secure the No. 5 seed.
• The Jets are on the outside looking in of the four 6-5 wild-card combatants based on conference record, and they don't have H2H games against that group other than a loss to Houston. With two of their next three games against NFC teams, they just need to keep winning and hope others take some conference losses.
• The Steelers are the current No. 8 seed at 6-5 and a win this week against the Colts would go a long way to gaining a wild-card berth. Pittsburgh has already lost to the Chiefs and has a tough two-game stretch following the Colts with a visit to the Bengals and hosting the Broncos.
• There is renewed hope for a wild-card team to come out of the previous laughingstock AFC South, with both the Colts and Texans at 6-5 and the Texans currently the No. 6 seed. Houston does have losses to Kansas City and Indianapolis already, so wins in the next few weeks, including at the Colts in Week 15, will be key.
• I continue to say that the Chiefs are looking more and more like the eventual No. 5 seed and could overtake the Broncos in the division, although Denver's great comeback win over New England last Sunday took some of the steam off that story. The Chiefs have remaining games against Oakland (twice), San Diego, Baltimore and Cleveland, none with a winning record, and three of their opponents have three wins or less. It's not murderers row, by any means.