TrentVilla Posted December 9, 2016 Moderator Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 hours ago, villakram said: Where pray tell are these poor souls going to come from. Er... Turkey. There are tens of thousands there currently as a result of the EU migrant deal with the country, the one their despot is threatening to rip up and send them all to Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 (edited) 20 minutes ago, TrentVilla said: Er... Turkey. There are tens of thousands there currently as a result of the EU migrant deal with the country, the one their despot is threatening to rip up and send them all to Europe. Sure, but given all that have made their way over thus far, I think what remains is a much smaller relative number. Also, given the imminent demise of the rebranded AQ affiliates, I imagine a lot of people will be interested in returning home and rebuilding, rather than becoming unwelcome residents in some western european country. Aleppo and Syria more generally is in a fundamentally important location and will be rebuilt, e.g., see Lebanon. Erdogan may have dreams of empire but I suspect he can see the writing on the wall and will be willing to bide his time given he has essentially become president for life. He'll be happy as long as the Kurds are knocked down a peg or two. Edited December 9, 2016 by villakram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted December 9, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, villakram said: Sure, but given all that have made their way over thus far, I think what remains is a much smaller relative number. er... Quote In 2016, the United Nations (UN) identified 13.5 million Syrians requiring humanitarian assistance, of which more than 6 million are internally displaced within Syria, and over 4.8 million are refugees outside of Syria. Turkey is the largest host country with over 2.7 million Syrian refugees. I just googled "how many refugees in turkey 2016" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 17 minutes ago, TheAuthority said: er... I just googled "how many refugees in turkey 2016" Yes, but how many of these want to move to Europe? Most people want to go home. Those who really wanted or had the means are already in Europe when the borders were wide open. More practically, how exactly would he get them to move? If Erdogan actually opened his borders the real problem would be Turks leaving While calling his bluff would be fun, simply reminding him of the current facts on the ground will get him to re-think things. He's in a pretty good situation and is a clear winner in the local geo-political scene along with Israel and Iran. Russia is interested in a proper rapprochement with the E.U. and Turkey can't get away with much given it's recent anti-NATO shenanigans. Plus given current electoral politics in Europe I suspect he would prefer the current neo-lib lot (who will nevertheless feign a swing to the right to pander to the masses) to a bunch of uber-rightwing governments that wouldn't tolerate his shit for a second. I don't claim for a second to know the answer. I'm simply of the opinion that there is a lot less to be worried about when Erdogan speaks than was the case 18 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted December 9, 2016 Moderator Share Posted December 9, 2016 Erdogan's negotiating position is largely down to who is looking to pipe gas across his country at any given time isn't it? How does our defeat in the proxy war to try to remove Assad leave him in that regard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted December 9, 2016 Moderator Share Posted December 9, 2016 6 hours ago, villakram said: Sure, but given all that have made their way over thus far, I think what remains is a much smaller relative number. Also, given the imminent demise of the rebranded AQ affiliates, I imagine a lot of people will be interested in returning home and rebuilding, rather than becoming unwelcome residents in some western european country. Aleppo and Syria more generally is in a fundamentally important location and will be rebuilt, e.g., see Lebanon. Erdogan may have dreams of empire but I suspect he can see the writing on the wall and will be willing to bide his time given he has essentially become president for life. He'll be happy as long as the Kurds are knocked down a peg or two. That was a swift change from "where are they going to come from, Syria is empty" to "but it's a smaller number than it was before" The point though wasn't really about the number relative to the number that have already arrived in Europe. The point quite specifically was the very real possiblilty, or in fact the direct threat from Turkey, is that they will act in a way that will once again increase the numbers. Irrespective of what those numbers are (I'm not sure either of us can remotely accurately estimate that) the threat and consequence of the threat is there. As for the theory "a lot of people will be interested in returning home" frankly I think that is absurd, not wishing to cause offence. A lot of their homes no longer exist and the Russian's and Assad are busy returning Aleppo to the sand. If it is rebuilt those that have fled aren't likely to be accommodated. As and when or if ISIS is removed from the equation the region isn't just going to go back to normal. The likes of Iran, Russian backed Syria, Turkey and the Kurds will make damn sure of that. Do you really think having risked their lives and in many cases lost everything to reach the sanctity of Europe people are going to be rushing back? As for Erdogan, he has his eyes firmly on what was Northern Iraq and will stop at nothing to ensure it doesn't form part of a Kurdish state and the West won't stop him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted December 9, 2016 Moderator Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 hours ago, villakram said: Yes, but how many of these want to move to Europe? Most people want to go home. Those who really wanted or had the means are already in Europe when the borders were wide open. More practically, how exactly would he get them to move? If Erdogan actually opened his borders the real problem would be Turks leaving While calling his bluff would be fun, simply reminding him of the current facts on the ground will get him to re-think things. He's in a pretty good situation and is a clear winner in the local geo-political scene along with Israel and Iran. Russia is interested in a proper rapprochement with the E.U. and Turkey can't get away with much given it's recent anti-NATO shenanigans. Plus given current electoral politics in Europe I suspect he would prefer the current neo-lib lot (who will nevertheless feign a swing to the right to pander to the masses) to a bunch of uber-rightwing governments that wouldn't tolerate his shit for a second. I don't claim for a second to know the answer. I'm simply of the opinion that there is a lot less to be worried about when Erdogan speaks than was the case 18 months ago. Again how have you reached your "most people" conclusion? It seems massively unlikely to me. As for Turkey, their borders are open to their citizens they just don't have freedom of movement within the EU as they aren't members. Erdogan is getting away with everything, nobody is even trying to stop him other than everyone's favourite villain in the Kremlin. If anything I'd say Erdogan is emboldened by the ease with which he crush the coup and the lack of any meaningful international reaction to his totalitarian response in which thousands of teachers were locked up. It isn't so much a case of being worried about Erdogan it's more a case of he shouldn't be under estimated and neither should his ability to influence the board of play in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted December 9, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted December 9, 2016 (edited) 11 hours ago, villakram said: Yes, but how many of these want to move to Europe? Most people want to go home. I'm not sure how you can ascertain that. The places they have fled from are completely destroyed and are now associated with what I imagine to be terrible memories. Going home to rebuild from the dirt maybe attractive to a few, but I would wager the majority would like to start a life in Europe after what they've been through. Edited December 9, 2016 by TheAuthority Trent has basically said the same above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Another important event happened yesterday with Qatar (rebel/their own pipeline backer) buying a stake in Rosneft with Putin's blessing (Assad/Russo-Iranian pipeline backer). Given that this sale looked as if it was not going to happen with ugly consequences for the Russian budget, this suggests significant backroom deals have taken place for Qatar to get involved here, or maybe it's just OPEC quid pro quo. This is a big deal as the entire Syria game had a significant pipeline wars element to it, and the apparent "we're, ahem, friends now" that this signifies points to a way out of this mess. Could Iran and Qatar possibly share a pipeline into the European market?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted December 12, 2016 Moderator Share Posted December 12, 2016 Aleppo set to return to Assad hands within hours, I fear for anyone left inside the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, TrentVilla said: Aleppo set to return to Assad hands within hours, I fear for anyone left inside the city. Meanwhile ISIS (if only temporarily) appear to have retaken Palmyra. No disguising the loss of Aleppo though, it's a massive blow to the jihadists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted December 12, 2016 Moderator Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, Awol said: Meanwhile ISIS (if only temporarily) appear to have retaken Palmyra. No disguising the loss of Aleppo though, it's a massive blow to the jihadists. I've read conflicting reports, I thought that the Russian's had bombed them out again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 34 minutes ago, TrentVilla said: I've read conflicting reports, I thought that the Russian's had bombed them out again? Bombing the ruins of the ruins that ISIS ruined? Dunno, but it'll be a good place to build a cement factory - eventually. Quite amazing that ISIS seemingly managed a 150km+ dash across open desert from Rawahy without either Russian or Coalition aircraft giving them a pounding. ISIS have also had a fresh injection of fighters falling back from positions in northern Iraq. They'll probably try a few new offensives in Syria over the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted December 12, 2016 Moderator Share Posted December 12, 2016 Im guessing there wasn't much for them to hide behind once the plans spotted them! Without doubt similar counters will follow, swift attacks in the face of defeats are very much their thing and they are good at them. It is rather curious they were able to travel so far in the open, hard to imagine nobody was watching. So could there be a hidden objective? So other reason why they would be allowed to do so, I've no idea what it could be but I'm very cynical about these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 43 minutes ago, Awol said: Bombing the ruins of the ruins that ISIS ruined? Dunno, but it'll be a good place to build a cement factory - eventually. Quite amazing that ISIS seemingly managed a 150km+ dash across open desert from Rawahy without either Russian or Coalition aircraft giving them a pounding. ISIS have also had a fresh injection of fighters falling back from positions in northern Iraq. They'll probably try a few new offensives in Syria over the coming weeks. or exiting through the strategically placed hole/corridor in the siege of Mosul so as to mess up Assad's Xmas. I find it funny (in that way) that there is all sorts of wailing and gnashing over the Russians reducing parts of Aleppo to rubble when that's precisely what the Americans did to Kobani. I also love how it's so easily talked about what is happening in Aleppo but not a hint of what is going on in Mosul. Though, I suppose sending them baskets of flowers and asking pretty please is hardly all that newsworthy /sarc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted December 13, 2016 Moderator Share Posted December 13, 2016 I'm not sure that you can really compare what the Russian's are facilitating in Aleppo with what happened in Kobani. I also don't think you can compare what is happening in Aleppo with what is happening in Mosul. Frankly to do so... is... well a little absurd and akin to I don't know.... suggesting people will be keen to return to Aleppo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 7 hours ago, Awol said: Quite amazing that ISIS seemingly managed a 150km+ dash across open desert from Rawahy without either Russian or Coalition aircraft giving them a pounding. Isn't it just that the US let them, possibly to draw some units away from attacking AQ in Aleppo? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted December 13, 2016 Moderator Share Posted December 13, 2016 Are things changing here in that the US has given up on the immediate removal of Assad and Boeing have signed a $16 billion deal with Iran? Might we see the beginning of a change in how the players are represented? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted December 13, 2016 Moderator Share Posted December 13, 2016 I think there is an acceptance that Assad is staying in power propped up by the Russian's and that there is little the US can do about it, directly. I'm sure they will still apply pressure in whatever ways they can. That said I do wonder if there is a reluctant acceptance that Assad is the lesser of two evils compared to the 'what comes next' phase of country disintegration. As for Iranian and U.S. relations I wouldn't see that deal as being indicative of a positive turn in that particular road. In fact currently relations are the best they've been and the best they are likely to be for a very long time. I rather suspect this deal has been rushed through due to the incoming Trump asministration which has been vocal in opposition to such deals with Iran and have tried to block them in Congress. Even now the deal isn't sure to go through as U.S. banks could soon be blocked from financing it apparently. Add in the Trump views on the Iranian nuclear deal and all in all things could get pretty frosty. Which is a real shame because I really think better relations with Iran would go a long way to helping keep a lid on the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted December 13, 2016 Moderator Share Posted December 13, 2016 Meanwhile.... back in Blighty.... Following swiftly on from reports of undercover SAS teams in cities shopping centres protecting the public and a rapid helicopter SAS/armed response team there have been more arrests. A series of raids through the East Midlands and London have it seems potentially foiled a domestic attack. It remains to be seen if it was ISIS orchustrated or inspired, seemingly they were loan wolfs. It also seems highly probably that the next few years will see an even greater threat the UK and European public from ISIS related (direct or otherwise) plots and the group concedes territory in the Middle East. It does seem that the UK security services do a quite remarkable job. Let's hope it continues because the threat will certainly increase. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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