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Everything posted by rubberman
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Interesting that the Opta 'supercomputer' now gives us 4.1% chance of winning the title, which is the same as Arsenal and more than Liverpool at the start of the season. We've come a long way, baby. I also like us now being bracketed as 'more obvious contenders' for the CL places: https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/12/who-will-win-the-premier-league-in-2023-24/
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I think this season will be a lower winning total than we've seen for a bit. There are more sides in contention (generally) who can take points off the 'top' teams and no standout side looking unbeatable. Apart from the promoted sides pretty much everyone else would fancy their chances in most games. Fulham, Bournemouth, Everton - all mid-table (kind of in Everton's case), but getting results. Arsenal and Liverpool only just getting past Luton, Palace, Fulham etc. You may well be right that we don't have enough and eg City might win 20 in a row or whatever, but I'm on the belief train for now.
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Our current form is good enough. We are 2 points off top, and whether calendar year, or since Unai arrived, we are one of the top 2 or 3 sides. Yes, City might go on a run, but equally, they are in more of a 'crisis' than they have been in previous years and as things stand it is in our hands. Everyone is having the odd poor result. It's a tough league. Ours are no worse than the other contenders. There are, at a stretch, 5 clubs still in the title race. We are one. Same with relegation (as Everton will pull away again soon). Agree - top 6 would be OK, but top 5 (and CL) should be the minimum from here. But I don't see why a good tilt at the top spot is unrealistic - just need to keep on what we've been doing.
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Go for it. (assuming 'good' soiling rather than 'bad' soiling). Every little helps...
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Only in an emergency for me. Stones for City showed on Weds that defenders in midfield isn't a natural fit.
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This is excellent from Opta: https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/12/aston-villa-premier-league-title-chance/
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Very impressive to be playing at that level as a 1 year old. Sign him up.
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Yeah this. We saw how exposed we were vs Liverpool and Newcastle when we had new players dropped in too soon (through injury). And equally, that eg Pau and Tilemeans have taken a while to reach the levels expected/anticipated. Ideally get one or two in with no pressure to come straight into the side and perform. We are turning into a well-oiled Emery machine and need to keep that process going.
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Excellent.
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Good results so far tonight. 1 more for West ham wouldn't hurt if I'm being greedy.
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I think West Ham should be able to take points off Spurs - they are struggling now. An Everton win would be a lovely bonus. Can't see Liverpool failing to beat Palace at the weekend, Utd at home vs Bournemouth is an easier game and City have Luton so really should get back to winning form. Getting something from Arsenal would be huge.
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I've developed a huge man-crush on Pau. Such an elegant player to watch - everything is so calm and cultured.
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Agree. But they also had a pretty draining game and we have fresh legs to change things up if Unai sees fit. I fancy we'll see a different approach vs Arsenal - they have proper midfielders so we won't have quite the run of the game there. Can't help but be confident that we can get another result here.
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Much as I love Ramsey, he doesn't seem to be back to the level needed yet - in his last couple of cameos he's looked well off the pace. I'd keep Tielemans in that role.
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Will be good to have Boubs back and fresh. Worried that Cash/Dougie will pick up yellows and miss the Arse game.
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1/2 hour time splits are really weird - especially when you have to work with people outside the time zone. Anyway - currently in the optimistic phase of match day. 2-1 Villa. Will no doubt come back and post the opposite in a few hours time as the nerves kick in.
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Huge hope. Nervous expectation. Everyone plays to their best and (don't give away a soft early goal) there's no reason we can't do this. Huge statement a win would be, massive.
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Konsa, Cash, Moreno, Tielemans and Diaby (with Ramsey and Bailey for the last 30). Bailey/Diaby is a bit of a toss up for me.
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https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/11/premier-league-five-knee-jerk-reactions-to-the-weekend/ Opta's season simulation now has us favourite for 4th and with 0.6%, the next best behind City, Liverpool and Arsenal to top the lot. (so you're saying there's a...gif) While obviously a small chance, 0.6% is more than the rest of the league combined (inc Newcastle, Utd, Spurs, Brighton etc...)
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Yes I agree. I think the fact we won influenced what they showed. There were definitely a few good chances spuds missed early on that weren't shown. Never mind - we're 4th.
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Soff Hueng-min
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Yes - it is likely to have plenty of goals. Tough to call. I hope we have the edge especially with their injuries and a 2 week tactical masterclass from the boss. 4-2 Villa.
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It's going to be interesting to see over the next few games. For me, those were aberrations caused by the injuries to Mings/Carlos (I think) early in the games and before Emery had a chance to drill the replacements as it was so early in the season - Pau had only been here a couple of weeks. I think both the first choice and back up defenders now have it nailed and while the high line may get occasionally beaten, i don't expect us to be done over in the same way, even by the best attackers.