tomsky_11

How many extra coefficient points does a win earn Man City? 0.057 increase from West Ham is the equivalent of 2 coefficient points. We'd need Man City to get more than an extra 5 points to overtake Plzen. I'm not sure that's possible.

Does it? Most perform to a pretty high level already so the bar to improve the average is high. Surely much more likely an additional side would underperform the average and bring it down?

The seasonal country coefficient is the average of the participating clubs from the country in that season. So more teams doesn't really help us unless they all over perform. And even then, a decent run in the competition with plenty of wins might see us with a higher club coefficient than the current one we get from the country score.

GK, DC and DM I'd not expect a lot of rotation, given the players we have and the benefits of consistency in these areas. Same probably goes for at least one of the forward positions. After that, every other place in the side should be open to rotation, whether in-game (we have 5 subs and 6 rotational positions) or between games. I don't see the headache with this. We should have enough games to hand plenty of minutes around, have enough different opponents and scenarios that will require changes of shape and different roles and qualities for the same place in the team.

Yeah, this is where the very best teams are at, especially when you add in European competition and also wanting to push far in domestic competitions. I think in the extreme scenario of making all the finals with replays were possible, it could be as many as 33 competitive fixtures on top of 38 league games.

As per reply to Stefan, not so much second choice in there case, but that we should be bringing in numbers in that area, and they shouldn't be worse than what we already have. I put the new signings in the "1st XI" if only to emphasise this point, if we are spending money this summer it needs to be focused on improving the first XI, by providing better than we already have or a similar level but different qualities.

I'd agree he is, but I also think we need numbers in that area and wouldn't want us just buying a backup for him. The 1st and 2nd XI doesn't mean so much in some areas, especially at full back and in attacking midfield areas where I'd expect a lot more rotation and different role requirements in more variable formations and approaches against different opponents. I'd expect Luiz, McGinn, Ramsey and two new signings of equal or better quality to be able to rotate in the midfield 4 between either the double pivot and the advanced roles (ie. Luiz, Mcginn and a new signing) or the advanced midfield 2 and the 10 role (Ramsey and the other new signing, plus Bailey and Buendia). If we really want to be pushing for and then trying to establish ourselves in the top 4, that is the position we need to be in.

Broadly two competitive options for every starting position, plus a good prospect/youth in each area. And I wouldn't want us spending any money on anyone this summer that isn't better than (or at least on par with and provides a different profile to) our current first XI. I'd make an exception for bringing in good prospects in areas we'd struggle to improve on now, if we've dealt with the 3/4 positions I think we'll need to spend money on first. Squad would look something like this: Olsen and Chambers the weakest of the "2nd XI", but I wouldn't prioritise replacing them as both in positions that already have strong first choice and won't rotate as much as others, while Chambers can at least cover multiple roles. Duran falls more into the prospect category at this stage, but think if we go big on a couple of adaptable forwards then I'm fine with him and Archer for depth.

Interesting similar player lists for the last three seasons. Both McGinn and Luiz being the most similar players in two of those seasons. Seems then exactly like the type of midfielder we want to be bringing in, being an option either in the pivot or in the more advanced two in the midfield 4. Output looks good in terms of passing progression, solid defensive numbers and a decent enough goal/assist return prior to this season.

I think the teams that we could face in the play off and have previously faced in competitive fixtures are:

Figured that's where you where going with it, but like I say there's 6 other slots above us definitely already taken, just the exact team filling that slot could change. It's impossible for us to be higher than the 9th of 17 seeded teams. Correct. Same for the Europa League qualifiers involving Slavia and Olympiacos. Correct, though it's 8 confirmed teams + possibly 2 more, not 7. That Twitter list isn't showing Midtjylland as a possible qualifier for 2nd round and is also for some reason not showing Fenerbahce's qualification as confirmed when it should be. Yep. Would be nice if those two things are Fenerbahce winning and Midtjylland losing next weekend. Then we can stop worrying entirely about being unseeded.

No one is telling me anything. Prominent members of the NEC have been putting it out there on social media however. Lol

Not sure a local mayor hosting an "in coversation with..." about a filmmaker's work in an area about which he has just released a film is the gotcha Labour think it is, but they'll carry on regardless.

Who said anything about guarantees? To add another reason into the mix, what's the likely difference in revenue in the competition with we fail to make the group? Assuming we get very little for losing the playoff, and Spurs made £10M for dropping out at the group stage, we could probably do without losing out on £10M revenue we'll be planning to bank. Our chances of qualifying would obviously be better if we were playing a side from the unseeded part of the draw rather than Juventus.

I'd rather minimise the risk of not making the group stage by having an easier draw, given it's our first European fixture in a while and will be the first for a number of players in the squad. We can settle into the competition and beat the best teams later.

I don't believe so, because the play off draw occurs before the previous EL and ECL rounds have been concluded and so the coefficient of the highest ranked team in the fixture is used in the draw.

Can: 3rd Will: 5-6th

Unless I'm misunderstanding what you are saying, I'm pretty sure this isn't right, it's 8 teams that will be ahead of us in the seeding no matter what: Lille Frankfurt Qualifier from Italy Loser of Europa League qualifier involving Olympiacos Loser of Europa League qualifier involving Slavia Prague Winner of Conference 3rd round qualifier involving AZ Winner of Conference 3rd round qualifier involving Partizan Winner of Conference 3rd round qualifier involving Dynamo Kyiv Then there are 10 further teams that could push us down the seeding rankings if they get past the 2nd qualifying round: Plzen Maccabi Tel Aviv PAOK Cluj Fenerbahce Gent Basel Club Brugge Basaksehir Midtjylland The last two teams listed might still not qualify for the competition at all, in which case we'd be guaranteed the last seeded spot in the play offs.

Much of a muchness no. Bigger game for us is on right now. Midtjylland vs OB. If OB win we just need Fenerbahce to win Turkish Cup next week to be guaranteed seeding for play off round. Unfortunately Midtjylland 2-1 up at moment.

Next season that top 4 will be ultra competitive. I think as many as 9 teams will be at least thinking they have a chance. Man City obviously nailed on in their own group. Elite squad and manager. Sanctions for their rule breaking can't come soon enough. After that you could make the case for any of the other "big 6" teams plus us, Brighton and Newcastle to get in there. Arsenal probably top this group because of this seasons' perfomance plus stability and quality in both management and squad. Based on management alone I'd say it's hard to choose between the rest bar Spurs who don't have one yet. Emery, Klopp, Poch and Ten Haag have all shown their pedigree over a number of seasons while De Zerbi and Howe in recent years look like they are at a similar level. Spurs have the opportunity to get someone in of a similar calibre, if they get that right they are back in the equation. From a squad perspective, I'd say all have their pros and cons, some more in either case than others, and there'll be a lot riding on who can retain or lean into the former, and solve the issues of the latter. Liverpool, Chelsea, Man Utd and maybe Spurs have arguably the highest numbers of established elite quality players, but all also have holes in their team that need fixing, some of these elite players aging, and some seemingly wanting out altogether. Spurs certainly have all these issues and could easily drop out of contention with a bad summer. The other three teams' issues are fewer and easier to fix. For us and Newcastle I think it's how much we can get on par with these teams this summer. I think both teams already have certain players on par with the "big 6". Martinez and Pope are arguably as good or better than what any of those teams have in goal. Botman, Ramsey and Kamara are showing quality and a level of progression that are taking them to that level. Luiz, Guimaraes, Trippier, Moreno, Mings and Watkins could all improve what some of these teams have currently. And I don't think Newcastle's new-found wealth puts them miles ahead of us in this regard given financial rules, and we are certainly in a good position to spend ourselves without falling foul of them. Both teams will be looking to do similar things in terms of number and level of player, though the focus on position and role won't always be the same. We'll be looking for right-backs, progressive and creative midfielders and forwards. They'll presumably be looking for left and centre backs and defensive mids, with maybe some crossover in attacking mid and forward areas. I think both teams could easily end the summer with first XIs much closer in quality to the "big 6". Brighton probably have the biggest issues squad-wise in seemingly losing Caicedo and MacAllister. But these sales plus EL qualification will give them scope to do a lot in the summer. The question will be whether they can replace at a level to compete for CL, and/or how much further progress the prospects they can retain will make next season.

Also, I've heard on more than one occassion from English football pundits on radio or podcasts when discussing Emery that he makes a good start at teams then drops off second season. This is, unsurprisingly, entirely based on the 13 game second season he was given at Arsenal, because it doesn't hold up for any other role he's had: The only times besides Arsenal that he earned lower PPG in his second season were after he'd earned promotion in his first season, and in both cases achieved above expectations with a newly promoted side, finishing 5th with Lorca Deportiva in the Segunda Division and 8th with Almeria in La Liga, the highest finishes in the history before or since of either club. When not promoted in his first season, the improvement in PPG in his second season is 0.06 on average. If he repeated this with us we'd be on for a 76-77 point season in 23/24. Even if you include the promoted seasons it's only a drop off of 0.08 PPG on average, which for Villa next season would mean a 71-72 point finish. Both scenarios would more than likely lead to CL qualification for us. Bonus Eddie Howe comparison: his Valencia first and second season PPGs to 2dp are identical to Howe's at Newcastle.

Newcastle under Howe very much the trajectory we should be looking to follow next season Identical seasons prior to each manager joining. An improvement of over 1ppg in the season they took over. Howe had Newcastle step up again this season. Emery doesn't even need improvement next season for us to surpass Newcastle's CL qualifying points total this season.

I think it's fairly safe to assume we'll be seeded because, as I understand it, this account is presenting the scenario if the highest coefficient teams get through the qualifying rounds which isn't at all guaranteed. There's 6 confirm teams that start in 2nd qualifying round or earlier that could get knocked out and replaced with lower coefficient teams. (The playoff draw is done before the 3rd qualifying has started so high coefficient teams being knocked out in this round doesn't bump us up.) Also not guaranteed is that 8 of the 17 team listed ahead of us will actually be in the competition at all because their leagues or cups aren't finished yet and other teams, some with lower coefficients than us, could still qualify instead. Given we only need one or two of these teams to change/get knocked out before 3rd qualifying, I think we are safe to assume we'll be seeded.

I think because winning a european competition cannot transfer a european place to another team that hasn't themselves earn't it via league position. This differs from the way domestic cups places can transfer. So in PL, 6th and 7th aren't euro places unless the domestic cup winners' spots transfer to those league positions, but these can never transfer below 7th. If a team wins a euro comp and finishes in a league position that already earns a european place, 8th place is deemed to have not themselves earned qualification, so there is no extra spot. If a team wins a euro comp and finishes outside the euro qualifying league places, they still get the place they earned themselves. And 7th gets their place as they earned it through league position, this isn't lost because another team also achieved qualification.

From here: So all registered male professional players at the club plus the head coach. So I guess can deduct all coaching and other footballing staff besides Emery. I don't know then if there is any question on the definition of registration, and who that might include or exclude. But if that's all players on pro contracts, I'd guess that's less than 100. So 130 other staff, on what kind of average salary? I'd guess some of the first team coaching staff could be on decent money, not sure what exactly though (google brings up a Daily Mail article suggesting average Championship salaries in ranges £50k-£300K for various first team postions beyond the manager. But then majority of the other footballing staff will be on less than this.