tomsky_11

So this is more like 90% of total in group accounts. Though this accounts for 231 staff and our first team and head coach will be, what? 30? If the scope more limited then the cost might be closer to the 75% I'd picked up from elsewhere.

Found it! Aston Villa FC Limited (Company number 02502822) is actually where the players, football management and coaches sit. Total employee costs £124M for 2021/22 Aston Villa Football Club Limited (Company number 03375789) is the one you are refering to, which has the £9.3M figure.

Our accounting year ends today. Seems fairly safe to assume the sales this summer will fall into 23/24 at this point.

Ooof so a lot less than the 25% I'd factored in. What's the scope of costs that need to be included? From what I skimread it looked like just first team players and head coach, so footballing staff, youth and women not included.

If it's based on 22/23 then we would probably still be in the 80-85% bracket based on my assumptions,

So we pass at around 80-85% for 23/24 the higher figure being if we have no transfer income at all next season. Still 24/25 a tipping point, lose £33m contribution from Grealish while the threshold drops to 80%, if revenue and costs don't change from my 23/24 forecast thats a £40M gap to plug, so £120M in sales profit.

Sorry, I mean is anything else in the squad cost ratio calc a multiyear average?

Just checked and this equates to about £8M increase in sponsorship and commercial (excl player loans) from 22/23 to 23/24. But, I rolled forward our 21/22 player loans income into 22/23, as we seemed to have a reasonable number this season, but have added nothing yet for 23/24 because I assume we'll see a drop if fringe players sold and rest of squad kept for additional games. Therefore the net change in sponsorship and commercial revenue including players loans is basically nothing.

Yeah makes sense. Will have a reread of rules later if find the time. Is that the only multiyear average that contributes to the figure?

10% increase in 2022/23. I think 25% in 2023/24. Based on nothing other than pure guess work, factoring in that appointment plus possible European boost.

I haven't, I just did the calc for the season. Is that how it works then? Only skim read the rules to find a rough basis for the calc this morning so probably missed it. Good shout. Will take a look.

Have just adjusted my estimates for 22/23 and 23/24 based on the above and get the following: Revenue 22/23 - £220M 23/24 - £240-245M PL FFP adjusted profit/(loss) 22/23 - (£37M) 23/24 - (£50M) PL FFP adjusted profit/(loss) 3 year cumulative (threshold £(105M)) 22/23 - £(40M) 23/24 - £(65M) UEFA squad cost ratio estimate 23/24 - 93% (cap 90%) My 23/24 estimates are based on a 7th place PL finish and a reaching latter knockout stages (QF/SF) of Europa Conference, selling/releasing Sanson/Nakamba/Davis/Young/Traore/Steer/Hause/Wesley for combined £25M, and spending around £100M on 4 players at £100K pw. For squad cost I've assumed 75% of our employee cost is for players and head coach, based on limited info I can find on reasonable PL average for this. If any of this is at all accurate, then from a PL FFP perspective we are very comfortable for this season and next, but looks like we'd be pushing the limits of UEFA rules (UEFA I think allows €60M losses over 3 seasons, though not sure how comparable the PL FFP adjusted figure is to this), though perhaps not by much so should be able to get within the rules while still spending. The biggest issue we might have is going to be 24/25 when: - we lose the Grealish money from the 3-year assessment period - the other two years as it stands look like making losses beyond the average annual threshold for the PL rules, nevermind UEFA's tighter limits. - the UEFA squad cost ratio cap reduces to 80% The two biggest ways we could offset this will be: - Selling, especially youth for decent money relative to their first team role, eg. like Chukwuemeka sale - Champions League qualification Beyond that, establishing a more settled squad, promoting youth, and relying less on transfers will also help.

Where has the £157M been confirmed? I saw an aggregated tweet but not the source. I'd estimated about £151M. £10M from Europa should be about minimum if we get the group stage I think. Spurs I believe got around £10M for failing at that stage a few seasons back. Getting to the latter stages should be more like £15-20M

Sure, I think there are question marks over a number of the 27, especially Chambers, Olsen, Young, and perhaps even Dendoncker, Bailey, Buendia and Digne. On the plus side they'll have had about 10 months with Emery once the new season starts, they are a decent enough level for backup and I'd think the club would err on the side of caution and not massively overhaul the squad right now. On the other side, some are expensive as back up, some have contract issues, some maybe haven't adapted as well to Emery or shown they fit the system that well. It wouldn't surprise me if any of these players left, but I also don't think the club would put much energy into actively selling them, given that we need to do this with a number of even more fringe players. On the youth side of things, I think at least Iroegbunam, A Ramsey and Archer have shown they are ready to contribute and feels like the right time now to properly integrate them. This could be the case for Philogene as well though contract may be an issue there. Then you've got some other possibilities. Azaz, Bogarde, Chrisene, Barry and Marschall coming back from loan could all be looked at in the summer, though I think another loan or perhaps a sale more likely in most cases here. Revan, T O'Reilly, K Young, Patterson, Swinkels and I think a couple of other keepers have been in matchday squads under Emery, so could be in the conversation for minutes next season. Could add to that some of the other highly rated youths like Wilson, Feeney, Kellyman, etc. who I imagine may get some preseason involvement. On the versatility thing, I think that goes for all 4 of the suggested new signings. The RB I think is more likely to be of a converted CB mould and so could also cover at CB. The centre mid I think would be capable of playing at either 6 or 8, and maybe at 10 as well (as we've seen McGinn and Luiz do at times this season). Then for the two forward signings, at least one, if not both, would be capable of playing any of 3 or 4 roles in the side, either a deep 10, a more advanced forward role, or in the more advance midfield positions, either in the current more inside positions or perhaps as a more an out-and-out winger. I'm thinking you want one goal scorer and one more a support/playmaker/creator type. All this probably leaves us with 18 players who could arguably be competing for regular starts: Martinez, Cash, New RB, Moreno, Digne, Mings, Konsa, Carlos, Luiz, Kamara, New MC, McGinn, J Ramsey, Buendia, New AM, Watkins, New FW, Bailey We are arguably then only 4 players short of having 2 high quality options for every position. But then we've got Iroegbunam, A Ramsey, Archer and Duran who could be given the opportunity to become this like J Ramsey has, which covers the midfield and forward areas. And we won't sign better than Martinez so this is a case of sticking with what we have or replacing backup on the cheap if possible. That leaves CB, and I think the rumours about Bamba suggest a likely course of action here, and we'll more likely look at a good value prospect who could become first XI in the next few seasons.

Aware of that, but it's not relevant to point I'm making. If we've got at least 27 players at out disposal next season I'm sure that's enough. We don't need to fill all 25 registration slots for the sake of it.

This summer should be about pushing to significantly improve the first XI, not bulking out the squad. We will have money to spend, but I imagine it'll go pretty quick if we are to bring in players better than what we already have. It's about quality, not quantity. Plus realistically don't think there's much of the first XI we can significantly improve on at this point and wouldn't want a massive overhaul given how most of the current players have performed under Emery already. Plus next season should be an opportunity for a few of the better youth players to stick around, learn the system and get first team minutes. With 3/4 quality additions we'll easily have enough of a squad to cope. Gk - Martinez, Olsen, Sinisalo RB - Cash, New RB, Young LB - Moreno, Digne CB - Mings, Konsa, Carlos, Chambers MC - Kamara, Luiz, Dendoncker, New MC/AM, Iroegbunam AM - J Ramsey, McGinn, Buendia, New AM/WG/FW, A Ramsey FW - Watkins, New FW, Bailey, Duran, Archer That's 27 players there, without including Traore, Coutinho or a bunch of returning loanees who will likely go. Could easily blow up £100M on those 4 new players, even if we pick up one on a free as is being rumoured.

As others have said, looks like too big an overhaul. I'd reckon 3/4 first team players tops: a RB/CB, a two-way midfielder and two differing wide/forward options. Also not sure we are getting that much for the players listed to sell, which makes spending £150m less likely. And I think those loans out could be contributing by staying given the extra games.

When Gerrard was sacked, 9 points from the first 11 games of the season was our joint second worst start in 28 PL seasons. We have finished the season under Emery with our joint 5th best points total in 28 PL seasons. The only 25-game runs in a single Aston Villa PL season that surpass Emery's 49 points were Atkinson in 92/93 (as much as 53 points in games 7-31) and O'Neill in 08/09 (51 points in first 25 games of that season)

Is there a chance we'd be unseeded for the playoff round?

Since 2001/02 (which I think is the first season in which it would have been possible for 7th place to earn a place in Europe due to league position), the team in 7th has finished on 57 points or fewer 10 out of 21 seasons. 7th place has actually earned a European spot (not including Intertoto) in 11 of those 21 seasons. 6 of those 11 7th place finishes were with 57 points or fewer. The highest points total earned by the side finishing 8th in these 11 seasons is 61 (twice, Everton in 09/10 and Arsenal in 20/21). Looking at all 21 seasons since 01/02 and the lowest placed team to qualify via the league position (excluding Intertoto) whether that be 5th, 6th or 7th, these teams finished with 57 points or fewer 7 times out of 21.

Same This was back at start of March and I based it on 11th place finish so should be able to add at least £7M to this. If correct, would take adjusted losses in 23/24 above £(90M) in order for us to have any immediate issues with FFP.