Panto_Villan

I also decided a few years back to move a chunk of my bitcoin into ethereum, because it’s more environmentally friendly and generally more useful - I thought over time it might replace bitcoin. That hasn’t worked out super well for me. I think even if it becomes the “main” cryptocurrency then bitcoin is still going to be the one people speculate on financially.

Nah halving is when the mining rewards for each bitcoin block mined are halved. Basically it means there’s half as many new bitcoins being created when it happens. I might be doing @PieFacE a disservice here but I’m always skeptical of charts like that, as there always seems to be one telling me I should totally invest right now based on historical trends, and then it magically stops having any predictive power the moment I do

Yeah, it probably will. The general pattern is predictable enough - there's some mania and prices go crazy, then there's a crash but it bottoms out at a price significantly higher than it was before the mania. Then it ticks along for a few years until something triggers a new mania and random members of the public get interested again, and the cycle repeats. We're probably due another mania stage in the next few years, although it's impossible to predict when. I thought about buying a decent amount a few years back when bitcoin was at $3k but I didn't, as I didn't have any spare money. After the last crash I told myself I'd buy some if it ever dropped below $10k again but I don't think it ever went close. I've still got some lying around but I don't think I'll ever have an opportunity to go up to a whole bitcoin again!

It's really going to be key for Biden not to make any major gaffes in the debates later this year. Last time around the Republican attacks on him being old and senile backfired, because all he had to do was look compos mentis and he'd outperformed expectations. It'll kinda be the same this time too, but the guy will be a couple of weeks short of 82 on election day and the chances of him dropping the ball are going to be higher. Sorta feel like he should have groomed a successor over his term tbh.

Indeed. I did actually start writing out the whole “actually, it’s an IFV” post myself but I decided it would be too boring and pedantic even for me (Hence why I didn’t say the Bradley was a tank, just that it has a small gun compared to a proper tank.)

Haha, yeah. Looks bloody impressive, right? That’s actually a relatively small gun by tank standards though, it’s “just” a 25mm autocannon whereas a proper tank cannon is 105mm or 125mm or so. Thats why it fires so fast and why the tank wasn’t penetrated and the crew killed (even if it was knocked out and then abandoned).

There’s a degree of irony in watching Iran casually start lobbing missiles at a nuclear-armed state, given their apparent belief that getting their own will guarantee their security.

Yeah, and there were also “productive” meetings with the Republican speaker about unlocking more US aid to Ukraine, so maybe that’ll resume at some point in the next few weeks too. I also enjoyed this video of Russia’s most modern type of tank getting ruined by a Bradley (the armour wasn’t penetrated and the crew survived, but they were forced to abandon it).

I can certainly see why the hardcore Republicans that vote in primaries want to vote for Trump. As for the polls that suggest he’ll win the election, I think it’s hard to disentangle the effect of Biden being a relatively weak candidate from people being specifically pro-Trump. Certainly the pro-Trumpers you see online seem to love him because he’s a master at making the establishment lose its mind (or just “owning the libs”).

Sounds like literally the worst person in the world. Is it true he has “I luv Stevie G” tattooed across the inside of his eyelids, so he can go to sleep reading it?

I think I just threw up in my mouth (love you really)

I didn’t get to watch the match unfortunately, so I just followed the live text. Sounds like one of the better ones to have missed tbh. It’s a frustrating result but one positive is that most of these frustrating results are (away) draws, not losses, and we generally have had good opportunities to get all three points when it happens. But we can’t have too many more of these results if we want to earn a CL spot. It feels to me like things are slowly but surely slipping away after a really promising start. Ending up in the Europa places would feel like a disappointment, even though it’d still be an achievement worth celebrating.

They’re probably down to less than 10% of their reserves of specific types of vehicles but in general everything I’ve read suggests their overall reserves still have quite a way to go yet (I’ve seen estimates they’re like 50% empty). Obviously the best stuff was reactivated first so quality is declining over time as losses mount, but even older tanks are still tanks and are perfectly capable of killing people. The closest major weapon the Russians are close to running out of are the KA-52 attack helicopters, I believe. They’re down to about half their starting fleet of those, and they don’t have anything else that can do quite the same job. The danger long term is that the Russians slowly work their way up to producing significant numbers of helicopters and armoured vehicles each month, like they have done with artillery shells and missiles and drones. It’s not actually like the West builds that many each year so the boot would be on the other foot if they do.

Yeah. I mean it sorta depends what your stance would have been if Israel had brought a case against Russia for genocide and illegal occupation of foreign lands, right? I guess it should be assessed purely on merit, given Putin has been doing exactly that. And people should simply point out that Israel is perhaps not the best party to be bringing such a case, but not let that tarnish their views of the case. Hopefully after some consideration that’s the stance I’d take. Not sure that’s the view everyone would take in practice, mind.

Yeah. Fair point. I guess I should have been a little clearer there - I’m referring purely to Ukraine here when I say they are stronger than ever. Western aid is becoming ever less generous (US aid has now ended entirely) and the Russians are slowly ramping up their war economy, and eventually Ukraine is going to fold if the current trends continue. And if Russia does win the war, suddenly the calculus changes, right? Russia never had any intention of fighting NATO directly or invading the Nordics, so I’m sure they’d happy trade NATO enlargement for control over Ukraine. I’m sure Putin’s also perfectly happy to weather the economic damage if it means they win the war. If the West lets Putin win, this war becomes a strategic defeat for us and not him. Being able to take territory just means being willing to suffer enough deaths and economic disruption until the West gets distracted and divided.

Yeah, but they’re not. Lots of people (myself included) underestimated the stability of the Russian state at the start of the war, but some posters in this thread don’t seem to have updated their views since then.

That's not true imo. But it's apples and oranges anyway; sanctions and political repression clearly have a negative effect and while that might have held the USSR back from being the world's leading superpower, those same disadvantages won't necessarily handicap Russia enough to stop them acheiving their lesser goal of being a regional power. They're far larger than the neighbours they want to bully, and their economy is mostly based on digging stuff out the ground and selling it which is less vulnerable to sanctions than more complex supply chains are. People have been saying since the war began that Putin was about to fall because Russians just wouldn't accept the falling living standards or the heavy-handed repression or the enormous numbers of casualties or the forced mobilisations or the loss of access to the West, etc. None of it has happened. Russia is in a stronger position now than it has been at any time since the start of the war. Probably because everyone has just been sitting back and waiting for them to collapse rather than taking the threat of a long drawn-out war seriously.

Yeah. Sure, if you were talking about Mandela-era South Africa then they would be perfectly placed to mediate the conflict or put forward a case on human rights. They were respected worldwide. Mandela has been dead for a decade and out of power for far longer, and his successors have repeatedly shown they’re actually very happy to support genocide. I gave multiple examples in my previous post. They’ve squandered their legacy. Does it mean they’re wrong to bring this case to court? Not necessarily. But you seem to be holding them up as an example of a “good” country, which they’re absolutely not.

The USSR famously let up on repression and started to open up before it collapsed. That’s why it’s not on the map any more, whereas Iran and Russia are still around. Same as Maduro over in Venezuela. Control the army and police and you stay in power, sanctions or not. There’s no serious political rival to Putin on the scene for discontent to unite behind either. If one emerges it would certainly change the calculation, but there isn’t one who poses any threat. Yes, of course sanctions work - the Russian economy and war effort would clearly be performing much better without them. But they’re not going to cause regime change, or stop the war. They’re not THAT effective.

Is your argument seriously that we should admire the stance of the current SA government, which is “we’re pro-genocide everywhere in the world unless Israel do it” because Mandela once led their country?

Those are all fairly minor inconveniences in the grand scheme of things though. Iran and Cuba have shown you can survive decades and decades of sanctions, provided you’re willing to accept a fall in living standards - and Russians are no stranger to hard times. Unfortunately Russia is a big country with a lot of raw resources it can dig up and sell to fund the war. As long as Putin keeps the army and police loyal he can keep this up forever imo. Their economy isn’t exactly running great, but they’re still out producing Ukraine and it’s allies militarily right now. The West needs to step up military aid to Ukraine otherwise Russia is going to have endured a few years of hardship but still won the war (a smaller victory than he’d have liked, but a victory nonetheless). Gotta hope Nikki Haley somehow beats Trump in the primaries and maybe 2024 will look a bit brighter!

That’s bollocks, I’m afraid. Israel had a torrid history for most of their existence (y’know, with their neighbours repeatedly trying to exterminate them) but the present matters more than the past. The same South Africa that is bringing this case against Israel last week had a state visit from their buddy Hemedti, leader of the RSF who have been enthusiastically committing genocide in Sudan. They’re also one of the only governments that recognise Hamas specifically (i.e. not just embracing the wider Palestinian cause). And yeah, they support Putin committing genocide in Ukraine too. The “paradox” you referred to earlier is simply that SA will happily cheer genocide if it’s being committed by anti-Western forces, but will be appalled by it if a Western ally is involved. Same as Russia or China. Even if you support them in this specific instance, they’re absolutely not on the right side of history in general. Their days of moral superiority are long gone.

In a wheelchair for six to nine months then?

Equally Germany has been completely lacking balls in refusing to supply Taurus missiles while France and the UK have already provided Storm Shadow / Scalp missiles. Germany has consistently lagged everyone else in providing offensive rather than defensive weapons. Not to mention the fact the UK is hugely ramping 155mm production in a way say France has not. No country is really throwing their full weight behind Ukraine, Germany included.

It’s probably Traore. Bertie’s a free spirit and I can’t imagine he has much time for anyone giving him detailed tactical instructions (“please don’t backheel volley it across your own goal from 30 yards out” etc).