Bollitics - Ireland, the Euro and the future of the EU

[Gringo]

If you were to sit down now and design a euro wide pact, the EU is not what you would draw. When something is so badly constituted it deserves a complete overhaul. I'm in favour of a lot of what the EU does, but the fact that is fundamentally broken from the corruption of it's process (no real democratic representation) to the failure of it's own procedures (no accounts signed for years) to the gravy train for the people who run it; it needs a major overhaul.

Default of the PIG (one I, Italy isn't going to default, neither is Spain) and the defection of the UK may kickstart a little naval gazing and real world thinking.

But with the pigs (human) with the snouts in the trough that isn't going to happen unless Germay decide to say nicht mehr.

[Chindie]

And there is a sight for sore eyes, Michelson. Nice to see a post from you again.

And a good'un too, fantastic.

[El Zen]

Chindie, mate. It's good to see I have been missed

Moving in with my girlfriend drastically reduced my VT time, but I've been checking on you guys on a daily basis anyway. Will try and post a bit, in OT at least, every now and then - if nothing else then to make the bollitics bunch on here happy.

[Chindie]

If you were to sit down now and design a euro wide pact, the EU is not what you would draw. When something is so badly constituted it deserves a complete overhaul. I'm in favour of a lot of what the EU does, but the fact that is fundamentally broken from the corruption of it's process (no real democratic representation) to the failure of it's own procedures (no accounts signed for years) to the gravy train for the people who run it; it needs a major overhaul.

Default of the PIG (one I, Italy isn't going to default, neither is Spain) and the defection of the UK may kickstart a little naval gazing and real world thinking.

But with the pigs (human) with the snouts in the trough that isn't going to happen unless Germay decide to say nicht mehr.

Is that not the problem with the EU however, that it wasn't drawn up from word go with a strict plan of action? It's evolved from one thing to another, picking up bits as pieces that are a mess as it goes along and grew and changed. It's had 61 years of evolution and never really trimmed the fat or simply sat down and decided it's direction. the few times it has tried to give itself a bit of a redesign and restructuring it's viewed with deep cynicism, the most obvious example being the Lisbon Treaty (which also made a slight attempt at trying to give it some more democratic accountability too).

Even Lisbon doesn't really go far enough to sort out the mess of the EU but it seems destined to once in a while give itself a trim in the hope that eventually it becomes something that has some element of of the well thought out pan-European pact.

Unfortunately the only way that may happen is if the whole thing completely collapses and that I can't see happening even with the issues with member economies going pop. The EU might collapse if it's members where all so heavily invested (by which I don't just mean monetarily invested, by also fully politically invested in it, taking the whole union deadly seriously in the way the member state is run) in it that they played exactly by it's rules all the time. Instead they faff around the rules and when it comes to the wire, downright ignore the fact it exists (see the moments when economies throughout the union started to go tits up - a number of influential leaders in the union asked that the union work together - what actually happened is a number of members give the union the finger and worked on their own initiative). That flexibility probably makes it far less likely to fall apart. Even if it became totally ignored it'd still hover in the background because it occasionally would have it's uses.

I completely agree that ideally you'd look at the EU, go through it's policies and treaties and whatnot and trim out the rubbish and reinstate the good parts in a new structure that was designed ground up as an intergovernmental political entity. It's just not going to happen though imo. Even if it did, there are too many people wanting to take the EU in too many directions (backwards to a trade organisation again as it was in it's infancy, sideways on a continued path of what it is now, forwards into a proper republic, etc etc) for that to happen for a very long time.

The best we can hope for, if you are a fan of the EU, is that the differing opinions and bureaucracy and the tug of power in all different directions means that as it evolves it gradual mutates into the thing we want, or at least something approaching that. For my money, that's pretty much what it is doing already, although I think it needs to prioritise a little on that - it seems rather more interested in looking outwards and introducing more problems into itself whilst giving looking in at itself a little bit of a back seat.

[Awol]

Idiocy is believing that a relationship based purely on trade with the EU as per the Norweigian (...) models is impossible for the UK.

Do you honestly think our (Norway's) associated membership in the EU is based purely on trade? If you are uncomfortable with the lack of democracy in the EU, try our model.

EU law is not holy writ in Norway, is it? The EU cannot override your national Parliament? Does Norway contribute eyewatering amounts to the running of the EU annually? You are exactly right that the absence of democracy in and mandate for the EU that is my major beef (along with the rampant corruption and lack of accountability) and both you and the Swiss seem to have the balance about right.

Do you really think the EU would have any interest in negotating a bilateral free-trade agreement if the UK decided to leave the Union? You would need reassurances of a free-trade agreement before you leave the Union, and France and Germany would never ever ever give you that.

Money talks. The EU is our biggest single trading partner if the other 26 countries are considered as single entity, but they also export more to us than we do to them. At a time when all Euro using countries bar Germany are scratching around for every cent of exports they can get, I don't think securing a free trade agreement for a UK outside the EU is an insurmountable issue - particularly given the military cooperation agreements we've recently signed with France.

For British eurosceptics, a EU á la carte is your best hope. Leaving the Union is not a realistic option.

I disagree. We prospered for an awfully long time outside the EU and don't see why in the last 20 years we've suddenly lost the capacity to continue doing so. I'm not anti-European at all but as Gringo alludes to the EU is a mess, we cannot change it from within and imo would be better off without it.

I think it was Gorbachev who famously said that we were "re-creating the Soviet Union in Western Europe". If anyone should be able to see the signs, it's him.

[Awol]

Even if it did, there are too many people wanting to take the EU in too many directions (backwardsto a trade organisation again as it was in it's infancy

That was all it ever had a mandate for. If people had voted for the economic, political, legal, social, agricultural etc policy ambitions it has taken upon itself I'd say fair enough. We elect national governments to govern and that's fine, we don't elect them to fundamentally alter the constitutional arrangements of the nation without consent.

Something I read the other day about AV, the EU and referendums struck a chord:

There is something faintly surreal about holding a referendum which no one asked for on a voting system which neither of the two Coalition parties supported, while refusing to hold one which the country does demand, and which both Coalition parties were recently pledging. What is the point of consulting people on how to elect their MPs, but not on whether those MPs should run the country?

The man has a point.

[Chindie]

Hannan by any chance? Hateful man. I'm surprised he's had time to write anything given how much his balls got fondled by the right of the US media. I think the easy angle he's gone for, that the EU runs the country, isn't quite correct and is a simplification to the point of being wrong, but is a rather prevalent idea so I doubt it's going away.

My understanding is that the drift in the EU away from trade was in effect started by the desire to aid trade (the simple logic being trade is in one way or another dictated to by law, policy, etc etc) and that by largely consolidating a number of those laws across the trade area it would make things easier for trade to take place? Of course that has further grown as the EU itself grew in might, it now represents a major player on the global economy and again it makes sense to as far as possible be united on policy.

Its been done in a cack handed manner and is a mess, but at heart I don't think it's a bad thing. The democratic deficit is a hangover from it's beginnings and is something only now starting to be sorted out. The EU today is the most democratic it's been. Still not enough, of course, but better.

As ever, they'll be no agreement here. I accept the EU is pretty damn flawed and I'd like it to be better, I don't think that means it's an evil thing that we must leave immediately. I think on the whole it's been good for us, and what we should do is look to influence it's path from here on, failing it collapsing entirely and allowing us to start again with the chance to right it's wrongs in one fell swoop.

[CVByrne]

I think there is a default assumption over here that the vast majority of people in the Republic are - if not active Sinn Féin supporters - at least very sympathetic to them.

It's not our fault there is that level of ignorance in England. You'd think the fact they only get what 6-8 seats in the Dail in all elections prior to this year would point to how little support they have. Sure one of their elected TD's went to collect murders from prison when they were released.

I can't think of anything I detest more than Sinn Fein.

[mjmooney]

I think there is a default assumption over here that the vast majority of people in the Republic are - if not active Sinn Féin supporters - at least very sympathetic to them.

It's not our fault there is that level of ignorance in England. You'd think the fact they only get what 6-8 seats in the Dail in all elections prior to this year would point to how little support they have. Sure one of their elected TD's went to collect murders from prison when they were released.

I can't think of anything I detest more than Sinn Fein.

Indeed it isn't your fault. But it shows the general level of ignorance of the average UK voter (or, much more likely, non-voter).

And yet, and yet...

The SF supporters might argue that you owe your country's independence to the struggles of their (supposed) predecessors, the original IRA.

But how long can they trade off that, given the events of more recent history?

[CVByrne]

Default on the debt is the only logical course of action but that would probably mean leaving the Euro prior to a default which would be very bad for the open economy. It's tough decisions but I think the least damaging short term would to be not to default. I don't know I feel sad for people who bought into the bubble and are stuck in negative equity. As they are stuck here to clean up the mess they didn't cause.

[El Zen]

EU law is not holy writ in Norway, is it? The EU cannot override your national Parliament? Does Norway contribute eyewatering amounts to the running of the EU annually?

Yes it is, on anything that can be linked to the workings of the single market. And given the vagueness of the wording of the agreement, any half decent lawyer will be able to make that link. Theoretically we have the right to veto EU legislation, but we haven't so far in nearly 20 years. Understandably so: the EU is our biggest trade partner too, we don't want to piss them off.

You are exactly right that the absence of democracy in and mandate for the EU that is my major beef

Fair enough, but...

you (...) seem to have the balance about right.

...we don't. On the contrary, actually. As we are not full members of the Union, we are not allowed to take part in the legislative process at all. Nevertheless, we implement EU legislation faster than most full member states.

Money talks

But so does politics, prestige and stubbornness. Even if it were financially indifferent to the other member states if the UK left the Union (I certainly doubt that, anyway), it would be too big of a blow to French and German EU big-wigs for them to allow it to happen.

The EU is our biggest single trading partner if the other 26 countries are considered as single entity, but they also export more to us than we do to them.

Well, obviously. With the British economy largely import-orientated, and a number of other EU states largely export-driven, that will always be the case. However, that doesn't in any way suggest that unrestricted access to the single market is any less important to the UK than keeping the UK in the Union is to the rest of the EU?

At a time when all Euro using countries bar Germany are scratching around for every cent of exports they can get, I don't think securing a free trade agreement for a UK outside the EU is an insurmountable issue - particularly given the military cooperation agreements we've recently signed with France.

I don't see how military cooperation with France is relevant to this at all, to be honest. And do you really think the other member states could bully the Germans into accepting such a deal? If you do, I think you are overrating internal EU democracy

I disagree. We prospered for an awfully long time outside the EU and don't see why in the last 20 years we've suddenly lost the capacity to continue doing so

.

You did, but there was a reason why you joined in the first place wasn't it? It was hardly a case of bleeding-heart solidarity and blind idealism that tipped the UK gov't at the time in favour of joining. And the world surrounding you has changed. You can't just go back to what you were doing in the glory days of the empire.

I'm not anti-European at all but as Gringo alludes to the EU is a mess, we cannot change it from within and imo would be better off without it

I think you can't leave it, and in any case you are far better equipped to influence the future of the EU in it than from the outside. You will have to deal with the EU in some way or the other - the French and the Germans will probably be more willing to listen if you are part of the Union.

[Gringo]

EU law is not holy writ in Norway, is it? The EU cannot override your national Parliament? Does Norway contribute eyewatering amounts to the running of the EU annually?

Yes it is, on anything that can be linked to the workings of the single market. And given the vagueness of the wording of the agreement, any half decent lawyer will be able to make that link. Theoretically we have the right to veto EU legislation, but we haven't so far in nearly 20 years. Understandably so: the EU is our biggest trade partner too, we don't want to piss them off.

OK let's go for an example. Is the EU ruling on home Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) applicable under norwegian rules, ie are you forced to have them by the EU?

[edit]Or did you pass separate domestic law in order to comply?[/edit]

[El Zen]

OK let's go for an example. Is the EU ruling on home Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) applicable under norwegian rules, ie are you forced to have them by the EU?

Without knowing the details of the specific directive, I certainly think so. I'm sure it should be easy to find the answer to that question with a little help from google, if you want me to look it up.

[Gringo]

Feel free, don't do norwegian google too well.

[El Zen]

It would seem the answer is 'yes', we are forced to have them. I even found it using English google

[Gringo]

It would seem the answer is 'yes', we are forced to have them. I even found it using English google

So you in effect have laws without representation? How is that handled in your constitution? Just seems a little strange.

[El Zen]

Yes we do. I think the constitutional issues are circumvented because of our theoretical right to veto. But as I said, that right hasn't been used yet and it will not be used to stop the data storage directive either.

[peterms]

And there is a sight for sore eyes, Michelson. Nice to see a post from you again.

And a good'un too, fantastic.

I fully support the sentiment, but you might at least spell the bugger's name right.

[Chindie]

Apologies, it's been a long day. I knew I'd done something wrong there too, just couldn't notice it somehow.

[LondonLax]

It is much better to shape the EU from the inside rather than being on the outside and wishing it would change to suit you.