Bollitics: The General Election 2010 Exit Poll

[kidlewis]

if there was a decent referendum system in place that was made easy for the public to vote, then couldn't a party lead the country relatively easily without an overall majority?

I think it would make it easier in some cases, ID cards etc but on taxation I can't imagine people voting to increase any taxes even if it is needed to reduce the deficit.

[Gringo]

Gordo forms govt 6/1 (15%)

That's much too short a price.

What about Labour form a government under a different leader?

I did see quotes of about 8/1 for Miliband snr as next PM.

Millie as leader, lol, I'm sure that would worry the tories

[Awol]

Leaderless UK stokes crash fears

FEARS of a market slump mounted this weekend after British politicians failed to form a government and senior bankers warned that the eurozone crisis might cause bank lending to seize up.

European finance ministers are today expected to agree a financial support mechanism for ailing economies such as Greece, Portugal and Spain. Traders fear the scheme, to be announced tonight, will not be enough to reassure markets and there will be a repeat of last week’s chaotic trading.

After sharp dips following the election, sterling stabilised on Friday in the expectation that a political deal would be struck over the weekend, with the Conservatives forming a government with the backing of the Liberal Democrats. Yesterday, however, Tory sources said no deal was likely before tomorrow, though progress was being made.

Traders said markets were already spooked by the chaos in America on Thursday, when prices plunged crazily before recovering most of their losses.

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The Securities and Exchange Commission and other market regulators have launched investigations, with initial explanations of a “fat finger” trade (a mistaken one) now discounted.

“With the markets being highly nervous ... and in the mood to penalise any country that is perceived to be falling short on its deficit-reduction needs, it is of paramount importance that a credible commitment on how to tackle the dire UK public finances is in place sooner rather than later,” said Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight.

Michael Saunders, an economist at Citigroup, said: “The UK faces a difficult mix of political weakness and unsustainable fiscal trends. The electoral system — no fixed election date and first past the post — means minority governments tend to be inherently unstable. With the biggest budget deficit in the G7, Britain urgently needs to establish a credible path back to fiscal sustainability.”

Other City sources warned that bank liquidity — the willingness of banks to lend to each other — had dried up suddenly last week. “That is what caused the last crisis and is still the big worry,” said one senior banker.

The Bank of England postponed its regular monthly monetary policy committee meeting on Thursday to avoid a clash with the election. The meeting tomorrow is set to leave Bank rate on hold at 0.5% and not add to the £200 billion of quantitative easing.

Economists have warned that if political uncertainty sends the pound sharply lower, the Bank may be forced to put up rates sooner than is good for the economy.

Mervyn King, the governor, will present the Bank’s new inflation report on Wednesday. It is expected to point to higher inflation.

Today’s EU moves follow an aggressive market sell-off last week on worries about the Greek crisis spreading to Portugal, Spain and Italy. Alistair Darling will travel to Brussels today to attend the meeting.

The mechanism will include an arrangement to allow the European Commission to issue bonds with the implicit backing of the European Central Bank. Any default losses will be shared by all member states, including Britain. A European Monetary Fund will also be proposed, but is likely to be rejected by some member states, including Britain.

Some analysts fear events in the eurozone will tip the markets into a deep, enduring crisis. Others are more optimistic.

Brian Belski, chief strategist at Oppenheimer in New York, said fear was likely to continue causing havoc in the near term. “Everyone was bullish and now the world is coming to an end,” he said. Mistrust of the market was muddying investors’ vision, Belski said. “It’s a problem of optics. What is Greece? It’s 3% of the GDP of the eurozone.”

Clearly the headline is wrong - we are not leaderless. However is Labour's final kick to Britain's balls going to be a commitment to bail out the eurozone if it continues to go tits up??

Bloomin marvellous, talk about scorched earth!

[Gringo]

Clearly the headline is wrong - we are not leaderless. However is Labour's final kick to Britain's balls going to be a commitment to bail out the eurozone if it continues to go tits up??

Bloomin marvellous, talk about scorched earth!

The UK is already participating in the greek bailout through it's contributions to the IMF.

FEARS of a market slump mounted this weekend after British politicians failed to form a government and senior bankers warned that the eurozone crisis might cause bank lending to seize up.

The problem here stems from the fact that banks don't know how much greek debt their mates hold, and so are nervous lending them cash. This wouldn't be a problem if the banks thought the greeks could repay their debt, but obviously they don't. The downgrading of the greek debt by S&P et al won't have helped as all the banks would have revised their country risk provisions with respect to greece, and so all try to get out of the game at once.

[snowychap]

Mervyn King, the governor, will present the Bank’s new inflation report on Wednesday. It is expected to point to higher inflation.

[Awol]

[The UK is already participating in the greek bailout through it's contributions to the IMF.

Yes, but why the need for double bubble by insuring through Europe as well?

[Gringo]

[The UK is already participating in the greek bailout through it's contributions to the IMF.

Yes, but why the need for double bubble by insuring through Europe as well?

Oh I don't disagree - just pointing out that many commentators keep telling us how the eurozone are bailing out Greece, and ommitting the UK contribution via the IMF.

[Gringo]

Mervyn King, the governor, will present the Bank’s new inflation report on Wednesday. It is expected to point to higher inflation.

Who could have guessed? Now the election is outta the way, the state will allow inflation to erode the savers accounts and reduce the national debt.

[snowychap]

Who could have guessed? Now the election is outta the way, the state will allow inflation to erode the savers accounts and reduce the national debt.

Legislation sooner rather than later to link pensions back to average earnings and away from inflation? :winkold:

And possibly something very quickly to cut any tie between benefit payments and inflation?

[drat01]

Clearly the headline is wrong - we are not leaderless. However is Labour's final kick to Britain's balls going to be a commitment to bail out the eurozone if it continues to go tits up??

Bloomin marvellous, talk about scorched earth!

Jon please tell me now you are not being serious - your hatred for Labour is totally and utterly clouding your judgement.

All this shit about scorched earth it's as though you know the Tory party does not have the answers and you want to make excuses for them up front.

We are part of the EU and as Gringo says the IMF commitment is there for all to see. A bankrupt Greece will not help the UK in any way, this is exactly the same mentality that was shown when the banks had problems. If I remember correctly your advice on Northern Rock was for everyone to get their money out quick and you were happy for it to go to the wall. The UK being part of this global finance mechanism carries out whoever is running the country.

Cameron now is being a massive hypocrite based on comments made about Lib policies and personnel during the election run in. A look back through the threads on here from Lib and Tory supporters makes interesting reading as does comments made from the party officials. For Cameron the clock is now ticking, can he bribe Clegg enough and U turn massively on so many key Tory policies.

[TheDon]

For Cameron the clock is now ticking, can he bribe Clegg enough and U turn massively on so many key Tory policies.

This recently taken photo suggests he feels he has.

[Awol]

Clearly the headline is wrong - we are not leaderless. However is Labour's final kick to Britain's balls going to be a commitment to bail out the eurozone if it continues to go tits up??

Bloomin marvellous, talk about scorched earth!

Jon please tell me now you are not being serious - your hatred for Labour is totally and utterly clouding your judgement.

I'm being completely serious Ian, the ONLY thing Brown has done during his miserable existence was keep UK Plc out of the Euro. It is and always has been doomed to fail because a common currency without full political and economic integration cannot reasonably be expected to survive when severe crises occur. The Euro will unravel at some point when the costs of bailing out other nations becomes too much to bear for the likes of Germany.

The IMF is funded by many many nations and we can get away with making our contribution to bailing out the lazy Greek public sector through that vehicle. Darling however is now committing us to a potential pattern of bailing out enrozone countries that we in the UK simply cannot afford. Money's too tight to mention, if you hadn't noticed.

All this shit about scorched earth it's as though you know the Tory party does not have the answers and you want to make excuses for them up front.

It's not "shit" at all, Brown has been throwing cash we're having to borrow at various international initiatives for well over twelve months, safe in the knowledge he is writing cheques his own Government will never have to cash. That is what I mean by scorched earth. Labour have put our finances in the toilet and then flushed repeatedly. No doubt in the coming years you will try to blame the Tories for that, but most people with a memory longer than seven seconds will be aware that is total bollox.

No more boom and bust. Oh dear.

If I remember correctly your advice on Northern Rock was for everyone to get their money out quick and you were happy for it to go to the wall. The UK being part of this global finance mechanism carries out whoever is running the country.

I can't quite make sense of the last sentence there but in terms of NR, then yes, I would have let it go to the wall. It might possibly have made the other banks think twice a full twelve months before the real earthquake hit. It might have meant that the debts run up bankers then were not now saddled on us poor punters and in the process of causing an even bigger crisis. As it is I think the only safe places now for savings are land and gold.

Cameron now is being a massive hypocrite based on comments made about Lib policies and personnel during the election run in. A look back through the threads on here from Lib and Tory supporters makes interesting reading as does comments made from the party officials. For Cameron the clock is now ticking, can he bribe Clegg enough and U turn massively on so many key Tory policies.

They have to try and bridge those differences to form a government, god knows neither of them will work with that twunt Brown so there is no real choice other than each other.

[drat01]

As normal Jon I disagree with your stance - especially on the scorched earth idea that you are claiming, it's nonsense. And also to call the Greeks lazy is straight from the Mail and Torygraph school of reporting, no strike that worse straight from the Sun.

Cameron failed to deliver what his paymasters had invested millions to get. the U turn politics he is playing now apparently is incredible, especially when you listen to the rhetoric from him and the supporters for example on VT prior to the election. Your argument seems focussed on Brown, but what is interesting reading a lot of the LibDem supporting blogs etc is that there appears to be a loathing of the Tory party that you don't see the same against Labour.

Cameron as the leader of the party of the largest number of MP's should be PM (unfortunately), but the fact that he is still failing to strike any sort of deal now shows he has to go minority and get some of the more random MP's on his side from the parties, or accept that he has to change a lot of the scary policies that he put forward pre election. Cameron will be out at the first opportunity that the Tory (and Media) paymasters can get and Hague will be in, IMO.

[Awol]

As normal Jon I disagree with your stance - especially on the scorched earth idea that you are claiming, it's nonsense. And also to call the Greeks lazy is straight from the Mail and Torygraph school of reporting, no strike that worse straight from the Sun.

One third of the Greek work force are employed by the public sector. It was a disatsterous policy when it was run behind the iron curtain and it's a disasterous policy now. You cannot run an economy like that, particularly when it involves tax evasion en masse by those who do actually produce something to support said public sector. The Greeks generally retire far earlier than their Western European conterparts and do so with far more generous pension schemes. So as a country (I'm not slating individuals) yes they do havea culture of laziness imo.

Cameron failed to deliver what his paymasters had invested millions to get. the U turn politics he is playing now apparently is incredible, especially when you listen to the rhetoric from him and the supporters for example on VT prior to the election.

Clearly they didn't get a majority but they DID get 2 million more votes than your mob didn't they? So Labour faled deliver for their paymasters in Unite, didn't they? Has Cameron agreed to PR, or scrapping Trident, or an amnesty for illegal immigrants? Do tell, what U turn is he performing exactly?

Your argument seems focussed on Brown, but what is interesting reading a lot of the LibDem supporting blogs etc is that there appears to be a loathing of the Tory party that you don't see the same against Labour.

Of course, they are all lefties at heart so no surprise there!

Incidentally I'd be more than happy with Hague as PM, top bloke imo.

[PauloBarnesi]

Honest question Ian; What do you want to happen? Who do you want to be prime minister and form a government based upon the voting on Thursday?

[Gringo]

Honest question Ian; What do you want to happen? Who do you want to be prime minister and form a government based upon the voting on Thursday?

In the interest of fairness.....

@Richard

Honest question Richard; What do you want to happen? Who do you want to be prime minister and form a government based upon the voting on Thursday? And whom do you wish to form that govt.

[drat01]

Honest question Ian; What do you want to happen? Who do you want to be prime minister and form a government based upon the voting on Thursday?

Not sure Paul - as said Cameron should be PM based on the fact that his party had the most MP's if there can be no alliance between the Libs and Lab , but obviously with any sort of credibility for him or Clegg it would be as a minority parliament. I say this because of the massive difference between the two parties policies both in this and previous elections. For Cameron to back down now and offer the Libs a whole bunch of concessions is a major face loss for him especially given the backing that he has received from the media and the tax avoiders.

Brown is PM at the moment and it was actually quite refreshing to see at least some of the analysts agreeing today that he cannot and should not just say "I'm off" until things are sorted and the various options are explored.

As with all political parties typically if you don't become PM you lose your position as leader, so I suspect that in the next few months Brown would step down as leader.

I've answered it, so what are your thoughts?

[drat01]

Clearly they didn't get a majority but they DID get 2 million more votes than your mob didn't they? So Labour faled deliver for their paymasters in Unite, didn't they? Has Cameron agreed to PR, or scrapping Trident, or an amnesty for illegal immigrants? Do tell, what U turn is he performing exactly?

So if he is not debating these issues with Clegg why the delay, why is he not demanding the PM role now?

Labour did not get as many votes as the Tory party, but even you as an ardent supporter cannot be somewhat disappointed that they failed by quite a big margin to get any sort of majority and the sight of them buttering up to a party they ripped apart (as did you) must be somewhat embarrassing and annoying? All of the pundits have said that the millions that the Tory party received from various sources, some named some under the interesting guise of a company, plus the backing of the bulk of the media was far more than both the Libs and lab put together. At least with Unite their contributions are documented and there for all to see and scrutinise - no free planes etc from them.

No PM candidate has ever had the funding and support of media (some of it foreign) than Cameron. There are already noises coming from Tory members about the disappointment of Cameron and his team

[tonyh29]

I actually think Cameron should go it alone .. no Surrender to the Lib Dems

He can try and implement his policies ..and Labour and the Libs can block them if they wish

and if they do In around 6 mths Cameron can then go public and say ..Look everything we are trying to do is being blocked on party grounds , so i'm calling an election ... if you don't back me we will be back to a hung parliament and it will continue ..or you can back me and my party and let us get on with the job ...

possibly a dangerous game but far better than a coalition whereby everything gets horse traded

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

If Cameron goes alone the countries ****.

I'm certain that the Tories will just make things worse, obviously people will disagree.

Time will tell, but i'm **** dreading it.