economic situation is dire

[PauloBarnesi]

 

Visited Margate in Kent today. Seemed to be very economically depressed, and I am not sure with any party in power could these ‘failing’ places turn it around. Yes things like Turner contemporary and lots of exiles from London seem to give hope, but its hard to see that this is a total answer.

I'm not sure what hope they give for locals other than being a cleaner for x number of hours a week (and the prospect of turning in to Falmouth or Salcombe).

 

Falmouth has a pretty successful dock (first deep sea port on the eastern side of Atlantic iirc) and therefore broader economic base than many places in the SW that clearly have tourism as a key industry. Margate seems to have some wind farms off shore and the promise of Wayne Heminghway coming to help.

 

But this isn’t just about Margate, its about lots of places that seem to have huge deprivation when the main industry dies; i.e. Welsh mining villages, etc.

[tonyh29]

The thing with the austerity program is that I don't believe the other approach would have worked either...

Why?

Because Osborne et al have hammered home the nonsense about us being a 'step' away from being Greece?

Unless I've taken your sentence wrongly, you're of the opinion that austerity hasn't worked, too?

Well austerity arguably has worked as the corner has been turned so to speak .. It could have been better another route but we cant say for sure , its like saying we would have won the league if we brought Sheringham instead of Cascarino... We can speculate but we can't say definitely can we ?

The case I've argued before is that the economic cycle meant we would come out of it ... As Blandy said at the time it could well be despite of Osborne not because of Osborne....

Again I wish people would give me a little credit of having a brain , however small .. I don't simple swallow up what I'm spoon feed and accept it , I am capable of forming my own opinions ... Villatalk is full of them , some stupid and some a lot worse !! not endorsing a spend your way out if a recession policy doesn't mean I've been brainwashed by Tory HQ ...

Carry on ...

[tonyh29]

peterms, on 10 Sept 2013 - 10:58 PM, said:You might also recognise, as the article you posted hints at, that reinflating the house price bubble is the very worst way to approach economic policy.  But that is what the clueless oaf is doing.

 

 

 

 

with the massaged figures out today that The UK's unemployment rate has dipped to 7.7% for the first time since late 2012 amid improving signs for the labour market ... and the Bof E saying interest rates will rise when unemployment hits 7% .. was suggested 2016  , but there is talk it could be 2014 now

 

 

What impact will interest rate rises have on the house price bubble and Osborne's master plan ?

[snowychap]

Well austerity arguably has worked as the corner has been turned so to speak...

Correlation, Tony (and that's taken from lower down in your post where you speak about the economic cycle).

[drat01]

 

peterms, on 10 Sept 2013 - 10:58 PM, said:You might also recognise, as the article you posted hints at, that reinflating the house price bubble is the very worst way to approach economic policy.  But that is what the clueless oaf is doing.

 

 

 

 

with the massaged figures out today that The UK's unemployment rate has dipped to 7.7% for the first time since late 2012 amid improving signs for the labour market ... and the Bof E saying interest rates will rise when unemployment hits 7% .. was suggested 2016  , but there is talk it could be 2014 now

 

 

What impact will interest rate rises have on the house price bubble and Osborne's master plan ?

 

Youth unemployment has risen and long term unemployment remains static so any claims that these are "good" figures are off the mark

 

Osborne is just creating another mess that will mature very soon.

[blandy]

 

 

The thing with the austerity program is that I don't believe the other approach would have worked either...

Why?

Because Osborne et al have hammered home the nonsense about us being a 'step' away from being Greece?

Unless I've taken your sentence wrongly, you're of the opinion that austerity hasn't worked, too?

The case I've argued before is that the economic cycle meant we would come out of it ... As Blandy said at the time it could well be despite of Osborne not because of Osborne....

There's more about "despite him" here

 

George Osborne’s claim that his austerity programme has been vindicated has been thrown into doubt by new research which suggests that tax rises and spending cuts have made the economy 3 per cent smaller...At the end of the second quarter of 2013, the British economy was still more than 3 per cent smaller than it was before the recession began in early 2008. Other advanced economies, including the United States and Germany, regained their lost ground from the recession some time ago....

[peterms]

with the massaged figures out today that The UK's unemployment rate has dipped to 7.7% for the first time since late 2012 amid improving signs for the labour market ... and the Bof E saying interest rates will rise when unemployment hits 7% .. was suggested 2016  , but there is talk it could be 2014 now

 

What impact will interest rate rises have on the house price bubble and Osborne's master plan ?

They are indeed massaged.  The figures were more useful when more jobs were full-time.  It would be more useful to see figures including things like people on variable hours contracts, people working less hours than they want to, people not signing on but wishing to enter employment.   7% unemployment does not reflect the same position that the same figure would have say 30 years ago, because of the changes in the labour market. 

 

As for interest rate rises, I think the effect on the bubble would be muted.  It would prevent some people from taking out a mortgage and so reduce demand, but probably not enough to make a significant difference to prices.  The bigger impact would be that if a lot of people have to pay more interest and therefore cut back on other spending, it dampens economic demand.  Since this recession has involved demand being low, it's perpetuating the problem.  Less money being spent on things which create employment, more money going to rentier profits.  Small businesses would feel the pinch as well.

 

But savers and asset owners would be happier, and that's an important part of the potential tory vote.

[Risso]

I've had a meeting with a director of Barclays this morning, who works in the property lending division.  He says most banks are moving swiftly back to the crazy days of a few years ago, with 95% and 100% LTV deals being agreed, as the banks, especially the state owned ones, are coming under big pressure to lend, lend, lend.  There's a new bubble on its way OK.

[peterms]

I've had a meeting with a director of Barclays this morning, who works in the property lending division.  He says most banks are moving swiftly back to the crazy days of a few years ago, with 95% and 100% LTV deals being agreed, as the banks, especially the state owned ones, are coming under big pressure to lend, lend, lend.  There's a new bubble on its way OK.

 

Real wages have fallen for a lot of people.  Unless they are to rise, then a growth in spending will come from increased debt - which was the problem in the first place.  So, the wrong sort of money being spent on inflating the house price bubble, in order to try to create a feelgood factor in time for the next election.  Utter madness.

[tonyh29]

peterms, on 11 Sept 2013 - 3:14 PM, said:

 

Risso, on 11 Sept 2013 - 3:00 PM, said:

I've had a meeting with a director of Barclays this morning, who works in the property lending division.  He says most banks are moving swiftly back to the crazy days of a few years ago, with 95% and 100% LTV deals being agreed, as the banks, especially the state owned ones, are coming under big pressure to lend, lend, lend.  There's a new bubble on its way OK.

 

Real wages have fallen for a lot of people.  Unless they are to rise, then a growth in spending will come from increased debt - which was the problem in the first place.  So, the wrong sort of money being spent on inflating the house price bubble, in order to try to create a feelgood factor in time for the next election.  Utter madness.

 

 

 

it's true I'd like to know my investment \ Asset is still worth something but surely the house price feel good factor only applies if you are selling and actively on the market  ... and buying and selling still stimulates the economy doesn't it ?

 

I mean I don't check a web site every day at work and say "bonus , my house value has gone up £1.45 today"  ..lets go crazy

[mockingbird_franklin]

 

I've had a meeting with a director of Barclays this morning, who works in the property lending division.  He says most banks are moving swiftly back to the crazy days of a few years ago, with 95% and 100% LTV deals being agreed, as the banks, especially the state owned ones, are coming under big pressure to lend, lend, lend.  There's a new bubble on its way OK.

 

Real wages have fallen for a lot of people.  Unless they are to rise, then a growth in spending will come from increased debt - which was the problem in the first place.  So, the wrong sort of money being spent on inflating the house price bubble, in order to try to create a feelgood factor in time for the next election.  Utter madness.

 

Well as nearly all (if not all) new money is created as debt, both governmental and private it is inevatable that debt will increase unless real assets are transferred to the creators and even then debt will still in all likelihood increase, This money as debt will always be the wrong type of money for sustained economic growth that results in a genuine increase in real in wealth for the masses. Guess it's amazing that money is seen as so scarce when vast amounts of new money is created out of thin air all the time.

Edited September 11, 2013 by mockingbird_franklin

[peterms]

it's true I'd like to know my investment \ Asset is still worth something but surely the house price feel good factor only applies if you are selling and actively on the market  ... and buying and selling still stimulates the economy doesn't it ?

 

I mean I don't check a web site every day at work and say "bonus , my house value has gone up £1.45 today"  ..lets go crazy

No, I think a feelgood factor can exist when people aren't selling.  I think people keep an eye on what property around them is selling for, and feel better off in that respect when the presumed value of their property rises (of course they may have offsetting feelings of being worse off from other things).  It's anecdotal, but I think it's real all the same.

 

Yes, buying and selling property stimulates the economy.  Removals, carpets and curtains, white goods, furniture, maintenance...all the things so often required when moving but which aren't taken into account in the Bedroom Tax, in fact.  But this stimulative effect is caused by moving, not by inflating a price bubble.  The bubble works against economic stimulation, by requiring people to take bigger loans and pay more interest, leaving less for other things.

 

On the employment front, it's good to see that some types of employment creation are happening.  Just what we need to drag us out of recession - a hundred thousand more estate agents.  That'll fix the economy.

 

[peterms]

...and looking at who's buying, buy to let mortgages were £1bn of the £2bn total.

 

So, many people who can't get a mortgage are pushed into private renting, feeding the rentier economy.  We should be bringing in rent controls and building large amounts of social housing, to deflate this bubble.  Let people who want to buy get access to housing at lower prices, let those who want to rent have more security and lower rents, bring down the housing benefit bill, and see if some of that investment money can be directed towards productive investment instead of inflating asset prices.

[peterms]

Oh god, this is scary.  As a business, if you take out a loan with a bank, you'll have these pimply adolescents making crucial decisions about your business, "exercising leadership", using you as a platform in their career, though with absolutely zero knowledge about anything. 

 

Anyone in their right mind would run shrieking from the prospect.

[villaguy]

 

with the massaged figures out today that The UK's unemployment rate has dipped to 7.7% for the first time since late 2012 amid improving signs for the labour market ... and the Bof E saying interest rates will rise when unemployment hits 7% .. was suggested 2016  , but there is talk it could be 2014 now

 

What impact will interest rate rises have on the house price bubble and Osborne's master plan ?

They are indeed massaged.  The figures were more useful when more jobs were full-time.  It would be more useful to see figures including things like people on variable hours contracts, people working less hours than they want to, people not signing on but wishing to enter employment.   7% unemployment does not reflect the same position that the same figure would have say 30 years ago, because of the changes in the labour market. 

 

As for interest rate rises, I think the effect on the bubble would be muted.  It would prevent some people from taking out a mortgage and so reduce demand, but probably not enough to make a significant difference to prices.  The bigger impact would be that if a lot of people have to pay more interest and therefore cut back on other spending, it dampens economic demand.  Since this recession has involved demand being low, it's perpetuating the problem.  Less money being spent on things which create employment, more money going to rentier profits.  Small businesses would feel the pinch as well.

 

But savers and asset owners would be happier, and that's an important part of the potential tory vote.

 

These figure were brought out just as people are coming out of unemployment and entering education, they always use this as a supposed improvement in the economy. Misuse of statistics is something that really gets to me, I wish people can see past these fabricated lies

[mockingbird_franklin]

Oh god, this is scary.  As a business, if you take out a loan with a bank, you'll have these pimply adolescents making crucial decisions about your business, "exercising leadership", using you as a platform in their career, though with absolutely zero knowledge about anything. 

 

Anyone in their right mind would run shrieking from the prospect.

.

Not sure I'd trust most of those to make me a cup of tea.

[PaulC]

...and looking at who's buying, buy to let mortgages were £1bn of the £2bn total.

 

So, many people who can't get a mortgage are pushed into private renting, feeding the rentier economy.  We should be bringing in rent controls and building large amounts of social housing, to deflate this bubble.  Let people who want to buy get access to housing at lower prices, let those who want to rent have more security and lower rents, bring down the housing benefit bill, and see if some of that investment money can be directed towards productive investment instead of inflating asset prices.

 

Yes I totally agree. Private landlords are raking it in. The govt cap benefits but do nothing on controlling rents. We need to build loads of social housing. Selling off the social housing was  massive mistake.  Also the quantitive easing has mrant the banks are now hording large sums of money and don't need your money anymore so interest rates for savings are crap. Its not the time to have savings.

Edited September 23, 2013 by PaulC

[mockingbird_franklin]

 

...and looking at who's buying, buy to let mortgages were £1bn of the £2bn total.

 

So, many people who can't get a mortgage are pushed into private renting, feeding the rentier economy.  We should be bringing in rent controls and building large amounts of social housing, to deflate this bubble.  Let people who want to buy get access to housing at lower prices, let those who want to rent have more security and lower rents, bring down the housing benefit bill, and see if some of that investment money can be directed towards productive investment instead of inflating asset prices.

 

Yes I totally agree. Private landlords are raking it in. The govt cap benefits but do nothing on controlling rents. We need to build loads of social housing. Selling off the social housing was  massive mistake.  Also the quantitive easing has mrant the banks are now hording large sums of money and don't need your money anymore so interest rates for savings are crap. Its not the time to have savings.

 

Why would banks want to give you more than it has to give the Bank of England for the bailouts needed to fund their reserve banking infrastructure, especially when they can then buy the bonds that the government had to issue at higher interest rates to back up this next to free money the banks have been given and earn a tidy profit. Inflation isn't the raising of prices, it's the devaluing of the currency, currency is devalued when you create more of it, but the underlying assets are not increased in proportion.

Edited September 23, 2013 by mockingbird_franklin

[tonyh29]

villaguy, on 16 Sept 2013 - 02:42 AM, said:villaguy, on 16 Sept 2013 - 02:42 AM, said:villaguy, on 16 Sept 2013 - 02:42 AM, said:

 

peterms, on 11 Sept 2013 - 1:51 PM, said:peterms, on 11 Sept 2013 - 1:51 PM, said:peterms, on 11 Sept 2013 - 1:51 PM, said:

 

tonyh29, on 11 Sept 2013 - 09:51 AM, said:tonyh29, on 11 Sept 2013 - 09:51 AM, said:tonyh29, on 11 Sept 2013 - 09:51 AM, said:

with the massaged figures out today that The UK's unemployment rate has dipped to 7.7% for the first time since late 2012 amid improving signs for the labour market ... and the Bof E saying interest rates will rise when unemployment hits 7% .. was suggested 2016  , but there is talk it could be 2014 now

 

What impact will interest rate rises have on the house price bubble and Osborne's master plan ?

They are indeed massaged.  The figures were more useful when more jobs were full-time.  It would be more useful to see figures including things like people on variable hours contracts, people working less hours than they want to, people not signing on but wishing to enter employment.   7% unemployment does not reflect the same position that the same figure would have say 30 years ago, because of the changes in the labour market. 

 

As for interest rate rises, I think the effect on the bubble would be muted.  It would prevent some people from taking out a mortgage and so reduce demand, but probably not enough to make a significant difference to prices.  The bigger impact would be that if a lot of people have to pay more interest and therefore cut back on other spending, it dampens economic demand.  Since this recession has involved demand being low, it's perpetuating the problem.  Less money being spent on things which create employment, more money going to rentier profits.  Small businesses would feel the pinch as well.

 

But savers and asset owners would be happier, and that's an important part of the potential tory vote.

 

These figure were brought out just as people are coming out of unemployment and entering education, they always use this as a supposed improvement in the economy. Misuse of statistics is something that really gets to me, I wish people can see past these fabricated lies

 

 

well tbf we do have a thread for that :-)

 

PS the two people that did comment on them here  both said they were misused , so we should be in your good books

Edited September 23, 2013 by tonyh29

[peterms]

The number of people in employment is going up.  Unemployment is going down.

 

This counts as employment, one of the many private sector jobs that have been created.

 

30-40 hours a week in a chippy, learning to fry chips.  Six month stretch.  No pay.