alexvilla4 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Dhuran taking one would be funny. No idea how he would strike the ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MapleVilla Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 I'll take one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Segundo Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 5 hours ago, DJBOB said: Would be shocked if Watkins isn’t in the first five. Think people are overreacting to a small sample size of penalties. Statistically relevant or not missing 5 out of 9 is more than enough for me not to want him anywhere near penalties. I suspect some people make the mistake of assuming that because he's a striker, and a more than decent one, it follows that he should be a good penalty taker. It doesn't work like that, pens are a different ball game. Not all strikers can hack it, and there are plenty of consistently successful penalty takers who have been full backs, centre backs etc. Like Andy Brehme for Germany, Koeman for Barcelona and Netherlands, Julian Dicks for West ham, Phil Neale for Liverpool to name a few. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 11 minutes ago, El Segundo said: Statistically relevant or not missing 5 out of 9 is more than enough for me not to want him anywhere near penalties. I suspect some people make the mistake of assuming that because he's a striker, and a more than decent one, it follows that he should be a good penalty taker. It doesn't work like that, pens are a different ball game. Not all strikers can hack it, and there are plenty of consistently successful penalty takers who have been full backs, centre backs etc. Like Andy Brehme for Germany, Koeman for Barcelona and Netherlands, Julian Dicks for West ham, Phil Neale for Liverpool to name a few. Maybe so - Watkins will take a penalty when it comes down to it so I'd prefer for him to go first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teale's 'tache Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Mile Jedinak Mile Jedinak Mile Jedinak Mile Jedinak Mile Jedinak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 (edited) Speaking of Mile, the order for the West Brom match was - Hourihane Jedinak Grealish Adomah Tammy Not sure if Deano knew the statistics behind penalty shootouts, but the idea he had lines up with the statistics. Grealish in the crucial 3 spot - Adomah in 4th (experience though he missed) - Tammy 5th (best taker - was 5/6 that year) Albion had their first two saved so it was mostly a moot point - but they also chose 4 defenders as their first penalty takes....which is a choice. Edited February 27 by DJBOB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 (edited) Went a bit down the rabbit hole - Villa/Chelsea in 21, lost 4:5 El Ghazi - converted Young - missed Nakamba - saved Konsa - converted Buendia - converted Nakamba at the crucial 3 spot! But also Konsa at the 4 spot so decent chance he might be in the first five. Then you have to go all the way back to Villa/Sunderland in the league cup in 09/10, won 3:1 Guzan heroics prevented any suspense but the order of takers was: Carew - converted James Collins - converted Gabby - saved Young - converted Then another 10 years earlier - Villa/Bolton in the FA Cup semi, won 4:1 Steve Stone - converted Lee Hendrie - converted Gareth Barry - converted Dion Dublin - converted Edited February 27 by DJBOB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Segundo Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 4 hours ago, DJBOB said: Maybe so - Watkins will take a penalty when it comes down to it so I'd prefer for him to go first. He may well take one because of the misconception I mentioned previously. If he must, surely it makes zero sense for someone with a better than even chance of missing to go first. It puts us immediately on the back foot and places even more pressure on the subsequent takers. Should always put your best takers first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1. Luiz 2. Watkins 3. Bailey 4. Tielemans 5. Konsa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 52 minutes ago, El Segundo said: He may well take one because of the misconception I mentioned previously. If he must, surely it makes zero sense for someone with a better than even chance of missing to go first. It puts us immediately on the back foot and places even more pressure on the subsequent takers. Should always put your best takers first. Seems contradictory, but your best taker should almost definitively not be first if you trust the data. Your highest percentage converter should go to the highest pressure, highest leverage, lowest percentage spots which would be 3-5. Even in the small sample size of Villa penalties, the first takers always converted while the misses and saves come in the 3 and 4 spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Newcastle tonight went: Schar - converted Barnes - missed Bruno - converted Anderson - converted Gordon - converted Not sure how the Toon feel about their best takers but they probably felt comfortable with Bruno in the 3rd and Gordon at 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smg Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Data, statistics, percentages etc etc. Your best penalty taker hits his perfect penalty but the keeper gets lucky (or does he ?) and saves it. If he had gone second or fourth would he have scored ? Who knows? Penalty shoot outs are a lottery anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoMkali Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 5 hours ago, DJBOB said: Went a bit down the rabbit hole - Villa/Chelsea in 21, lost 4:5 El Ghazi - converted Young - missed Nakamba - saved Konsa - converted Buendia - converted Nakamba at the crucial 3 spot! But also Konsa at the 4 spot so decent chance he might be in the first five. Then you have to go all the way back to Villa/Sunderland in the league cup in 09/10, won 3:1 Guzan heroics prevented any suspense but the order of takers was: Carew - converted James Collins - converted Gabby - saved Young - converted Then another 10 years earlier - Villa/Bolton in the FA Cup semi, won 4:1 Steve Stone - converted Lee Hendrie - converted Gareth Barry - converted Dion Dublin - converted I mean playoff semis? Though only mcginn would still be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoMkali Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 6 minutes ago, smg said: Data, statistics, percentages etc etc. Your best penalty taker hits his perfect penalty but the keeper gets lucky (or does he ?) and saves it. If he had gone second or fourth would he have scored ? Who knows? Penalty shoot outs are a lottery anything can happen. If your penalty taker takes the perfect penalty he will always score. That's just a fact. A if you hit it within 2 foot of the post over 63mph (I believe is the figure) it is impossible for any goalkeeper to save. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 (edited) On 26/02/2024 at 23:13, mikeyp102 said: Konsa over Ramsey? Na not for me, think Konsa would be poor. At 2:32 he hits a lovely penalty into the top corner. Kepa saved a few when he was at Chelsea but sent him the wrong way with ease. Buendia will also be an option if he can get back onto the pitch in the final six weeks and he's very likely to be a sub in most of those games. Chelsea 1-1 Aston Villa | Penalty Thriller At The Bridge After Headed Werner Finish! | Highlights (youtube.com) Edited February 27 by VillaChris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 14 hours ago, Wainy316 said: JJ has some of the best shot placement at power I've seen so he'd definitely be in there. Also crazy that our free scoring striker should be nowhere near the pens. Some strikers are just like that for some reason. Angel was never that good at them, Dublin scored some big ones but also missed crucial ones as did Yorkie. Carew wasn't too bad (think the one he skied at Newcastle is still travelling over the Atlantic!) but probably the best strikers we've had taking them that I've seen would be Benteke and Tammy Abraham. Gabby when he could be bothered never took them and think he missed once in a shoot out at Sunderland. One incredible stat is Andy Cole scoring 187 goals in top flight in his career and only one was a penalty, find that astonishing considering he was the main CF for all the clubs he played for after leaving Man. United. Also scored 30 a season at Newcastle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 12 hours ago, Taxahunter said: I don't think that 5 missed out of 9 is a small sample size Missing over half your pens in senior career is really really poor. Any penalty shoot out we're in now will be very high stakes so the premier league equivalent was last season at Anfield. Needing something from the game to make europe, 0-0 and the Kop screaming whatever at him and he dosen't even get it on target. Poor. Not sure if we actually have a striker coach in our massed backroom staff ranks but we really should be practising it with him as he always seems to try to aim for top corners/side nettings and if he gets it slightly wrong it doesn't go in, was same when he missed last minute v West Ham in his first season. Hit the crossbar IIRC. Just needs to learn how to give the keeper the eyes and slot it in the opposite corner. Or hit one down the middle as the safe option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 20 minutes ago, smg said: Data, statistics, percentages etc etc. Your best penalty taker hits his perfect penalty but the keeper gets lucky (or does he ?) and saves it. If he had gone second or fourth would he have scored ? Who knows? Penalty shoot outs are a lottery anything can happen. Succumbing to it being a lottery is probably not something Unai would believe. Penalties is one of the few things in football that is actually measurable given all the fixed variables. I would hope that Unai and company play the percentages if it comes down to it though ultimately it’s just a slight edge we would be working with. Additionally, the team that goes first has a statistical advantage as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 6 hours ago, El Segundo said: Statistically relevant or not missing 5 out of 9 is more than enough for me not to want him anywhere near penalties. I suspect some people make the mistake of assuming that because he's a striker, and a more than decent one, it follows that he should be a good penalty taker. It doesn't work like that, pens are a different ball game. Not all strikers can hack it, and there are plenty of consistently successful penalty takers who have been full backs, centre backs etc. Like Andy Brehme for Germany, Koeman for Barcelona and Netherlands, Julian Dicks for West ham, Phil Neale for Liverpool to name a few. Going back to the 90s Denis Irwin and Frank Leboeuf were two of the best takers in the premier league for non-attackers, hardly missed one between them (think Michael Oakes actually saved one at Old Trafford in our of our usual losses). Barry must've took about 15 for us over his spell and scored most of them so I'd have him as overall best penalty taker. Milner got pretty good at them aswell after taking over in the 09/10 season. El Ghazi also had an incredible record. Pretty sure he not only scored every single pen he took for us but also sent the keeper the wrong way on every occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 4 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Missing over half your pens in senior career is really really poor. Any penalty shoot out we're in now will be very high stakes so the premier league equivalent was last season at Anfield. Needing something from the game to make europe, 0-0 and the Kop screaming whatever at him and he dosen't even get it on target. Poor. Not sure if we actually have a striker coach in our massed backroom staff ranks but we really should be practising it with him as he always seems to try to aim for top corners/side nettings and if he gets it slightly wrong it doesn't go in, was same when he missed last minute v West Ham in his first season. Hit the crossbar IIRC. Just needs to learn how to give the keeper the eyes and slot it in the opposite corner. Or hit one down the middle as the safe option. Its odd because he has a really high shot on target rate - better than the league average. And during matches, a majority of his shots remain on the ground to stay on target. When’s the last time you can remember Ollie skying it in game besides hitting it to row z against Forest? But penalties, he suddenly wants to roof it. Hopefully they talk about it before the knockouts so he keeps it on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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