Penalty shoot out line up

[VillaChris]

6 hours ago, DJBOB said:

Speaking of Mile, the order for the West Brom match was - 

• Hourihane
• Jedinak
• Grealish
• Adomah
• Tammy

Not sure if Deano knew the statistics behind penalty shootouts, but the idea he had lines up with the statistics. Grealish in the crucial 3 spot - Adomah in 4th (experience though he missed) - Tammy 5th (best taker - was 5/6 that year)

Albion had their first two saved so it was mostly a moot point - but they also chose 4 defenders as their first penalty takes....which is a choice.

Albion going down to 10 men helped big time in that one as Brunt would've taken a penalty for sure and think they also took off one of their attackers as a tactical sub so they had hardly anyone but Jay Rodriguez possibly who had penalty experience (Dwight Gayle was also suspended for that game).

We had plenty of attackers on at that stage so we were always favourites in that shoot out although Albert skying his penalty shows what pressure can do as he had scored a couple in that league season.

Tonight was interesting. Blackburn put Smzodzics up first as their insurance taker, he missed and Newcastle scored their first two so they were always playing catch up from that point and then they missed their 5th aswell.

[VillaChris]

7 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

Succumbing to it being a lottery is probably not something Unai would believe. 
 
Penalties is one of the few things in football that is actually measurable given all the fixed variables. 
 
I would hope that Unai and company play the percentages if it comes down to it though ultimately it’s just a slight edge we would be working with. 
 
Additionally, the team that goes first has a statistical advantage as well. 

He won his most recent european trophy with every single Villareal player scoring in that shootout v Man. United so rest assured every single player in our squad will be putting in the required practice at Bodymoor to make sure we're ready for any shoot out.

I do think generally clubs over last five years have finally started to take penalty shootouts seriously as plenty are now happening where first 5-6 players of both teams score.

S

[DJBOB]

6 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Albion going down to 10 men helped big time in that one as Brunt would've taken a penalty for sure and think they also took off one of their attackers as a tactical sub so they had hardly anyone but Jay Rodriguez possibly who had penalty experience (Dwight Gayle was also suspended for that game).

We had plenty of attackers on at that stage so we were always favourites in that shoot out although Albert skying his penalty shows what pressure can do as he had scored a couple in that league season.

Tonight was interesting. Blackburn put Smzodzics up first as their insurance taker, he missed and Newcastle scored their first two so they were always playing catch up from that point and then they missed their 5th aswell.

It does bring up some interesting game theory with that Albion game. 
 
Youri is clearly a decent taker with in game experience but there’s no chance in hell he makes it to penalties if he starts. So does he start someone else and sub Youri in as insurance? Same with Bailey and Diaby. Neither will last the 120 so which one starts? I would certainly take Digne over Moreno in pens but which is better for starting the match?

[DJBOB]

12 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

He won his most recent european trophy with every single Villareal player scoring in that shootout v Man. United so rest assured every single player in our squad will be putting in the required practice at Bodymoor to make sure we're ready for any shoot out.

I do think generally clubs over last five years have finally started to take penalty shootouts seriously as plenty are now happening where first 5-6 players of both teams score.

S

His starting five were:

• Moreno - best taker that year, career 23/29
• Dani Raba - midfielder
• Paco Alcacer - forward, career 5/9 on pens - not much better than Ollie!
• Alberto Moreno - LB
• Parejo - midfielder, his Douglas Luiz, career 36/48

Edited February 28 by DJBOB

[Mantis]

I'd be minded to put Torres fairly high on the list. He oozes composure and that's probably the single most important quality for a shoot-out. Also many CBs have never even taken a penalty so not much data for the keeper to go on.

[DJBOB]

Interestingly enough, Pau took his second to last against United but hit a well powered shot up high. 

[El Segundo]

10 hours ago, DJBOB said:

Seems contradictory, but your best taker should almost definitively not be first if you trust the data. 
 
Your highest percentage converter should go to the highest pressure, highest leverage, lowest percentage spots which would be 3-5.

Even in the small sample size of Villa penalties, the first takers always converted while the misses and saves come in the 3 and 4 spots. 

Don't think so. First, I don't agrees position 3 or 4 would be higher pressure or higher leverage than position 1.  Position 1 is probably the highest pressure apart from maybe 5 in my view.  

Listening to the radio commentary on the Blackburn Newcastle game last night and both the commentators agreed "send your best taker up first". That seems to be the most popular strategy and probably the reason why the first penalty has the highest conversion rate.   

I'd argue that the conversion rate is pretty obviously going to reduce as less competent takers come forward, and is a more logical reason for lower conversion rate at positions 3-5 than additional pressure. 

All your strategy is likely to achieve would be to make the first penalty conversion rate lower,  and whilst that may in turn  increase the conversion rate of later positions as better takers come forward,  the extra pressure of a  missed first pen will add more pressure to subsequent takers.  Sending up a middling taker first merely increases the chances of handing the initiative and a psychological advantage to your opponents from the start.

[DJBOB]

1 hour ago, El Segundo said:

Don't think so. First, I don't agrees position 3 or 4 would be higher pressure or higher leverage than position 1.  Position 1 is probably the highest pressure apart from maybe 5 in my view.  

Listening to the radio commentary on the Blackburn Newcastle game last night and both the commentators agreed "send your best taker up first". That seems to be the most popular strategy and probably the reason why the first penalty has the highest conversion rate.   

I'd argue that the conversion rate is pretty obviously going to reduce as less competent takers come forward, and is a more logical reason for lower conversion rate at positions 3-5 than additional pressure. 

All your strategy is likely to achieve would be to make the first penalty conversion rate lower,  and whilst that may in turn  increase the conversion rate of later positions as better takers come forward,  the extra pressure of a  missed first pen will add more pressure to subsequent takers.  Sending up a middling taker first merely increases the chances of handing the initiative and a psychological advantage to your opponents from the start.

Even accounting for sending the best taker first, the data shows that the first penalty is converted at the highest rate regardless of the skill of the taker. 
 
The data is pretty clear on the decreasing percentage of conversion throughout the penalty shootout regardless of the ability of the taker. 

[allani]

4 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

Even accounting for sending the best taker first, the data shows that the first penalty is converted at the highest rate regardless of the skill of the taker. 
 
The data is pretty clear on the decreasing percentage of conversion throughout the penalty shootout regardless of the ability of the taker. 

But doesn't that then mean that if you put your better penalty takers in later in the shootout then they are more likely to miss?  It would be interesting to know how often a team puts their best penalty taker at 5th and then compare the number of times their penalty is either irrelevant (or just not even taken) against the number of times they score the decisive penalty.  In my head it happens loads - but that's probably down to people noticing it more often when a good penalty taker doesn't get to take one. 

[DJBOB]

3 minutes ago, allani said:

But doesn't that then mean that if you put your better penalty takers in later in the shootout then they are more likely to miss?  It would be interesting to know how often a team puts their best penalty taker at 5th and then compare the number of times their penalty is either irrelevant (or just not even taken) against the number of times they score the decisive penalty.  In my head it happens loads - but that's probably down to people noticing it more often when a good penalty taker doesn't get to take one. 

There is definitely a game theory aspect to it since there is a high chance the penalty shootout does not go to five rounds. It’s also infamously difficult to change the preconceived notions of best taker first as the straightforward logic is “get off to a good start” and give yourself a chance to go five rounds. 
 
I think a blend is the best approach and that’s why I’m an advocate of best takers third and fourth or third and fifth. 
 
Should be noted that there are studies that show first and last (best takers) are also statistically advantageous. 
 
Here are the studies if you want some more detailed reading:

https://sites.duke.edu/djepapers/files/2016/10/hubbard-britto-djepaper.pdf
 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10902675/ 

[allani]

2 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

There is definitely a game theory aspect to it since there is a high chance the penalty shootout does not go to five rounds. It’s also infamously difficult to change the preconceived notions of best taker first as the straightforward logic is “get off to a good start” and give yourself a chance to go five rounds. 
 
I think a blend is the best approach and that’s why I’m an advocate of best takers third and fourth or third and fifth. 
 
Should be noted that there are studies that show first and last (best takers) are also statistically advantageous. 
 
Here are the studies if you want some more detailed reading:

https://sites.duke.edu/djepapers/files/2016/10/hubbard-britto-djepaper.pdf
 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10902675/ 

The best strategy is probably just have 5 very good penalty takers with nerves of steel and have them all practice a lot.  That way it doesn't matter what order you put them in! 

[DJBOB]

2 minutes ago, allani said:

The best strategy is probably just have 5 very good penalty takers with nerves of steel and have them all practice a lot.  That way it doesn't matter what order you put them in! 

Also not wrong!

Unai’s Villarreal team had first and last as his best takers but in general - had at least 3 penalty takers who had converted or attempted at least 10. 
 
All this being said about the order, it’s probably the keeper that matters more as the data overwhelmingly shows some keepers are better than others at penalties.

And we’ve got the best one. 

[allani]

7 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

There is definitely a game theory aspect to it since there is a high chance the penalty shootout does not go to five rounds. It’s also infamously difficult to change the preconceived notions of best taker first as the straightforward logic is “get off to a good start” and give yourself a chance to go five rounds. 
 
I think a blend is the best approach and that’s why I’m an advocate of best takers third and fourth or third and fifth. 
 
Should be noted that there are studies that show first and last (best takers) are also statistically advantageous. 
 
Here are the studies if you want some more detailed reading:

https://sites.duke.edu/djepapers/files/2016/10/hubbard-britto-djepaper.pdf
 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10902675/ 

PS - Having a quick look through the first of those sources and something interesting struck me.  Should it be possible for a team to change their penalty kick order AFTER the coin toss to decide who goes first or second (but BEFORE the first kick is taken) and if so would anyone actually do so?  This was after the point they made about their being a proven advantage to taking the first kick (if the shoot out concludes quickly) but a similar advantage to go second (if the shoot out goes on longer) - which is odd as I thought it would be the other way around - the more times a team have to score their kick to progress to the next sudden-death round the more the pressure is likely to mean that someone misses.  This would be the same as serving first in a tie-break in tennis would feel to be a bigger deal the longer the tie-break goes on because you have more chances of winning the tie-break on your own serve.

I don't know but I think if you knew you were going second then maybe you'd load the middle takers more to try and steal an advantage and / or wrestle back if you miss the first - whereas maybe if you go first you want to front-load the penalty takers to try and grab the initiative?

This might be something that gets taken into consideration in the report - if so apologies.

[allani]

11 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

Also not wrong!

Unai’s Villarreal team had first and last as his best takers but in general - had at least 3 penalty takers who had converted or attempted at least 10. 
 
All this being said about the order, it’s probably the keeper that matters more as the data overwhelmingly shows some keepers are better than others at penalties.

And we’ve got the best one. 

Our new back-up keeper has penalty shoot-out form too.

I have wondered in the past whether teams should consider just having a specialist penalty keeper on the bench.  Someone who maybe isn't great at catching crosses, commanding their box, etc but just has superb reflexes and good movement.  I think I've seen it happen a couple of times (but can't remember when) and also that one time that happened the "match" keeper had had a great game and was taken off and the "penalty" keeper than proceeded to not save any of the penalties he faced and so "lost" the match. 

[DJBOB]

3 minutes ago, allani said:

Our new back-up keeper has penalty shoot-out form too.

I have wondered in the past whether teams should consider just having a specialist penalty keeper on the bench.  Someone who maybe isn't great at catching crosses, commanding their box, etc but just has superb reflexes and good movement.  I think I've seen it happen a couple of times (but can't remember when) and also that one time that happened the "match" keeper had had a great game and was taken off and the "penalty" keeper than proceeded to not save any of the penalties he faced and so "lost" the match. 

Kepa subbed in for Mendy for Chelsea and blew it. 

Converselt, Krul subbed in for Netherlands in 2014 and won it. 
 
Definitely a gamble. 

[DJBOB]

Seems to be the flavor this round. 
 
Not sure I can stomach a Villa penalties. 

[VillaChris]

Is the Ajax keeper any good at them?

[Ceemo]

46 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Is the Ajax keeper any good at them?

Faced 3 penalties this season and all 3 have gone in.

According to transfermarkt including youth games, he has faced 20 penalties, with 2 saves.

[tommytenjobs]

1. Watkins 

2. Konsa

3. Luiz 

4. Torres 

5. Digne 

Likely still on the pitch at 120. Key experience at 3 and 5. Luiz always takes one at 3. Watkins gets the easiest to score. Other notables, but less convinced still on the pitch at 120 or suspended for this particular game. Mcginn. Ramsey, Bailey, tielmanns, moreno. Martinez. 

No where near....zaniolo, diaby, Carlos, longlet, Duran.....please.  

 

[TomC]

For me, preferred takers (not necessarily in order) would be Doug, Bailey, Digne, Tielemans, JJ,  Diaby, Emi1. I gave more than 5 because some might not be on the pitch at the end.

I really like the idea of Emi1. Penalties are a mind game as much as anything. You know he's not going to lose his nerve. The only problem is, if he does miss, he still has a job to do and you would wonder if it would get in his head.  I'd rather put him in there if we're kicking second and would put him in 5th round or later.

If they weren't injured, Buendia and Kamara would be up there.