Who will be the next leader of the labour party ?

[Awol]

Jackie Ashley, writing in the Grauniad, seems to be pretty sure that Labour needs a new leader:

The whole national press is saturated with stories of coup plots etc. much of it from people who are very pro-Labour but not blind. Prescott and a few others are in denial but the dribbling incompetent is truely screwed and if Labour don't have the balls to act soon they'll be gone for three/four terms again.

[snowychap]

Well, I think that Jackie Ashley is not only very pro-Labour but also very pro-Gordo, too.

[snowychap]

Miliband and Harman draw up plans to challenge Brown in leadership election

David Miliband and Harriet Harman are preparing the ground for a leadership election, Times Online can reveal.

Many in the party now believe that a revolt against Gordon Brown is highly likely, with the probability that it will take place at the start of September.

A number of Labour ministers are considering standing down in early Autumn, possibly refusing to serve in a Brown reshuffle, it was reported by The Times today

It is alleged that Ms Harman was spotted on Thursday night, watching the scale of Labour's defeat in the Glasgow East by-election on the television, telling aides "this is my moment". This comes despite public protestations of loyalty from Labour's deputy leader, who is "minding the shop" in Downing Street this week while Mr Brown is on holiday.

"I think most people have accepted that it is over and only a handful of people in Downing Street are trying to stop anything happening," said a senior government source.

Friends of James Purnell, the Work and Pensions Secretary, have confirmed that he has reached an agreement with David Miliband so that he would represent the Blairites in any contest. He is understood to have been quietly sounding out colleagues about a Miliband candidacy.

Senior party figures are urging Alan Johnson to agree to serve as Mr Miliband's deputy in a so-called "dream ticket".

The operation to canvass support for the Foreign Secretary includes senior Labour figures in the Lords, who have been contacting peers to prepare the ground for a bid. He is believed to be the best hope for the Blairite wing of the party, despite his failure to challenge Mr Brown for the leadership last year.

Meanwhile Ms Harman's private speech to the National Policy Forum in Warwick on Saturday night was seen as a bid for the leadership.

As well as making jokes at the expense of Jack Straw, another possible contender, she laid out the need to put equality and fairness at the centre of the Labour government - believed to be the centrepiece of any campaign.

Labour sources believe she has a serious chance of becoming leader if a contest is held. "The public do not have a say in any contest, just the Labour Party, and people easily forget she won the last time a vote was held. She has quietly been working on the unions, with her husband Jack Dromey, and is popular amongst the membership, as well as having the backing of a large number of MPs."

There are fears in Labour circles that up to six candidates could stand - like the deputy leadership contest - because the signatures of only 45 MPs are needed to enter the race. However, one source believes that the race would fold down into a contest between Ms Harman and Mr Miliband.

Mr Brown's performance at the National Policy Forum on Friday lunchtime, where he talked at length about India and China and the significance of the iPod, made by US giant Apple, is being spoken about as the event that convinced some they had reached the point of no return.

The most significant outcome of the Forum - which was meant to agree an agenda for the next Labour manifesto - was an agreement with the unions to sit down again in the next 18 months. This is because union leaders think there is little point in negotiating with Mr Brown before the next election.

[zippy178]

Am I the only one who thinks, in the long term, a leadership change could damage Labour more than actually showing unified support for Mr Brown?

[Chindie]

I tempted to say they are buggered either way. The damage has been done bar a miracle, and pretty much everyone that wants the job (it appears) will to the public be stained by the farcical situation Labour now lead the country in.

If they stick by Brown (which I'm certain they won't), they're going to get slaughtered and potentially get to a situation where no high ranking member of the current government is going to come out smelling of roses. That's one hell of a damaged reputation.

If they do decide to get shot of him, they've got to go on a PR rampage when they get the new boss in (same as the old boss? ) because of the crap they are already in. I can't say Milliband or Harmann strike me as great leaders, I'm fairly sure the general populace will agree. And what are they really going to do different? There are only so many ways you can jump up and down over whats on the front page of the Sun and the Mail.

[snowychap]

Good old Bob Marshall-Andrews is stirring the pot a little:

MPs urge Brown to sack Miliband

Two Labour backbenchers have called for David Miliband to be sacked over an article which led to speculation he wanted to succeed Gordon Brown.

The foreign secretary had "overstepped the line", Geraldine Smith said, while fellow MP Bob Marshall-Andrews accused him of "duplicitous" behaviour.

The Guardian article discussed Labour's future without mentioning Mr Brown.

But Mr Miliband told BBC Radio 2's Jeremy Vine show that he was "not running a leadership campaign".

And he insisted Labour was "not down and out", despite last week's by-election defeat in Glasgow East and poor poll ratings.

The party was "determined" to be clear about its values, and ensure a "real choice at the next election", he added.

But Ms Smith, the MP for Morecambe and Lunesdale, said Mr Miliband had been "trying to stir up trouble".

"What has David Miliband ever achieved, apart from furthering his own career," she asked on BBC Radio 4's The World at One.

"If David Miliband was placed back on the backbenches, then I think he'd become the non-entity that he was before his accelerated promotion," she added.

'Quite deliberate'

Mr Marshall-Andrews, MP for Medway, accused Mr Miliband of "pretty contemptible politics" in his article.

"The complete and conspicuous absence of mention of the prime minister at this particular stage obviously conveys its own message.

"It is a quite deliberate message but, as I say, it is a duplicitous message which is the worst possible kind of politics."

He went on: "I think [Mr Brown] should sack him if he doesn't resign and mount a proper leadership challenge."

....more on link

[bubbadog]

Am I the only one who thinks, in the long term, a leadership change could damage Labour more than actually showing unified support for Mr Brown?

You are probably not the only one but I tend to disagree.

If the Glasgow East result were to be repeated during a General Election, Labour would not just be out of Government, they would be effectively out of opposition as the Lib Dems would actually become the official opposition, far fetched I know.

With the probability that inflation will continue to spiral upwards and ill feeling towards Brown and his cronies continuing, at least the traditional "bounce" that any new party leader receives will give them some form platform to build upon.

Labour need a leader who is prepared to come out and admit thay have made horrific mistakes, both at home and abroard. They need a leader who is charismatic in this age of 24 rolling news channels, they need a leader who will take them back to the left of politics (after all if they move any further to the right it will be the Conservatives who are the most left-wing party in British politics!!!)

Milliband is NOT the answer, he is tainted by his part in the Brown administration and frankly his media appearences have been less than inspiring.

I may sound like a "stuck record" but I firmly believe that the only suitable candidate at present is Jon Cruddas.

I am not foolish enough to think that Labour can win the next election, I think the situation has been left to fester too long for that to happen, however I do believe that Cruddas could help Labour at least give Smarmy Dave a run for his money.

[Demitri_C]

he wont get sacked i gurantee it

[bubbadog]

Labour dont "sack" leaders. What will happen is that his leadership will be officially challenged.

Here is how it works:

A bid to oust Gordon Brown as party leader would require a challenger to have the backing of 20% of Labour MPs.

That translates to about 70 MPs.

If a would-be candidate secures this level of support they must then write to Labour's general secretary announcing their intention to run.

The contest would then be decided at conference by an electoral college of unions, MPs and constituency parties.

Normally the party leader and his deputy are formally re-elected at Labour's autumn conference, whether there is a challenge or not.

I suspect that this year's Autumn conference will be quite interesting.

[snowychap]

I thought that the figure being thrown about was 45 MPs?

After the loss of Glasgow East, I remember them saying on Newsnight that this had taken it down from 46 to 45?

I'm not saying that Newsnight is the font of all knowledge - if it's 70 then it's 70.

[bubbadog]

Whether it's 45 or 70, the figure should be easily within reach of any challenger, there will be an awful lot of Labour MPs fearing for their jobs at present, they all know (deep down) that a change is necessary (even if some are still desperately towing the party line at present).

It does look as if Milliband is lining up the first shot and positioning himself as the reluctant asassin, but after what will be quite a feisty summer break expect all hell to break loose late August, possibly sooner if there is any more bad news on the poll front.

I would expect a poll to show fairly soon that Labour support has decreased since the Glasgow by-election, that will probably be the catalyst!!

[bickster]

Milliband = Stalking Horse

[snowychap]

Whether it's 45 or 70, the figure should be easily within reach of any challenger, there will be an awful lot of Labour MPs fearing for their jobs at present, they all know (deep down) that a change is necessary (even if some are still desperately towing the party line at present).

Absolutely. If ten members of the cabinet are sharpening their knives then there shouldn't be a prob enlisting sufficient backbench support.

I just wondered whether 70 was, in fact, the correct number and was just interested to know.

It does look as if Milliband is lining up the first shot and positioning himself as the reluctant asassin, but after what will be quite a feisty summer break expect all hell to break loose late August, possibly sooner if there is any more bad news on the poll front.

I would expect a poll to show fairly soon that Labour support has decreased since the Glasgow by-election, that will probably be the catalyst!!

What are your thoughts on the enforced cancellation of the official visit to India at the beginning of September for Miliband I and the rumours that have followed about a reshuffle? Surely Brown isn't going to try and rid himself of the biggest troubles? Wouldn't that just allow them more room for manoeuvre?

[bubbadog]

Milliband may be a little busy here in the UK come the beginning of September.

Interesting comment from Bickster that Miliband is a "stalking horse", I just wonder who's challenge that would be masking?

As for any potential reshuffle now, I just think that would be seen as the act of a clueless man and could well produce more MPs with a grievance towards Brown.

Looking forward to the Sunday's this week, I have a sneaky feeling that a couple of challengers may well give fairly controversial interviews (a la Miliband) just to test the water.

[bickster]

Interesting comment from Bickster that Miliband is a "stalking horse", I just wonder who's challenge that would be masking?

Now thats an interesting question, for which I don't know the answer. Its just a gut feeling I suppose based on a couple of things. Those being the first to show his hand rarely ever gets anywhere in these such contests and secondly I don't think any of the big boys (with the exception of possibly Jack Straw) would be remotely interested this time around. I'm not even sure that he's masking anyones challenge to be honest but I do think he's trying to get rid of Brown or at least set the wheels in motion. The "Primrose Hill Gang" has always supposedly looked beyond the current and previous leaderships with an eye on the future. It may be that he's decided that Brown has to go and it doesn't matter who replaces him as they are doomed right now anyway, the next leader taking on a poisoned chalice as it were.

[Gringo]

Interesting comment from Bickster that Miliband is a "stalking horse", I just wonder who's challenge that would be masking?

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Ol' red eyes is back

back from all the lies he told before

Ol' red's in town

The middle east peace mission wore him down

No EU presidency

No new crown

Ol' red is back

[bickster]

From the Lords Gringo?

[Awol]

IF (and it's a big if) things haven't kicked off before the reshuffle comes around I can see Miliband becoming Chancellor. Brown is just too spineless to sack him so the only other alternative is promotion because he has to be seen to shake up the status quo.

FWIW I expect a challenge to be under way before September anyway.

[drat01]

Brown is just too spineless to sack him

Sorry Jon but why should he sack him? and Spineless - sorry that does not make any sense

The obsession with Tories for sacking people is amazing - would explain the jobless figures under them I suppose :-)

[Gringo]

From the Lords Gringo?

Not without precedent - and I'm sure he would promise to stand as a MP once a safe labour seat* can be found for him to contest

*following glasgee east may be a bit of a struggle