Yeah, I've always thought the next major offensive from Ukraine would be towards Melitopol to free Zaphorizhiahia and Kherson regions. It's also the area of least resistance and potential weak point for Russia, who are concentrated on the Donbass.
It's like Russia cant stand the thought of losing they are willing to sacrifice everything on one area and lose thousands upon thousands to achieve something that will eventually get taken back, even if they achieve a little gain now.
It's a monumental f*** up by Russia, and very much ego driven now.